very well stated MacLorry indeed.
in fact I believe we'll see gold retreat hard from the 1764 area, probably lose at least 200 pts. per oz. and possibly 3-400 pts.
much of the news lately has been centered on Greece, a nation that holds a miniscule market share of world GDP.
it's amazing to me, how that's sent the tremors through the financial world. Especially as to the effect upon the Euro.
The US has a debt problem as well, 16 Trillion in debt, without counting many of the unfunded liabilities our gov't has incurred.
the folks that publish those numbers are part of the machine that gives us inflation numbers as well. Excluding food and fuel mind you.
imo inflation has been grossly understated, so it comes as not much of a stretch for me to believe that our debt numbers are understated as well.
hunting a buck whether in the wilds or in the financial jungle include some similar skills, read sign, (analysis) glassing (patience) the ability to move quickly when needed, and a steady hand to take the shot presented.
if I see the financial turmoil caused by a pissant little country like Greece on the world financial markets, it gives me pause to wonder "how will it effect markets as the debt problems of the US come more and more to light?"
my analysis leads me to believe......we ain't seen nuthin yet
California and Illinois are particularly problematic, they're effectively broke, and who will they turn to bail them out of their financial troubles, my guess is our Uncle Sam, who has financial troubles of his own.
I also like to follow the money, as much as it galls me I'm envious of what Red China is doing, making deals for natural resources with 3rd world countries while the USA goes on about policing the world on borrowed money.
China's central bank is buying gold, not on the peaks so much, but on the pullbacks it seems to indeed be acquiring more of the worthless yellow metal.
I have to ask myself why?
I've no doubt, the numbers from DC will be painted to make our economy indeed seem to be recovering, and perhaps it really is, I'd love to see it. But forgive me if I'm skeptical about how our gov't reports numbers in lieu of how they report our true debt and inflation.
the eye of the world has been focused upon Greece as of late and their poor fiscal accounting.
what happens if that same critical eye is pointed towards the US?
granted we may not be as unhealthy as Greece, but I do believe our national balance sheet is a long ways from the pink of good health.
How do you envision the impact that will have on financial markets, including gold?
imo and I agree that it's mostly psychological, gold represents a flight to safety when folks are uncertain about the state of the world.
I agree with your premise that "it's a narrow set of circumstances that would allow gold to rise from current prices"
but in my view, the rut we've dug with overspending upon overspending is indeed deep and may just take us down that narrow path.
really enjoy your take on things and particularly financial matters.
I've some familiarity with TIPS, but don't currently have a position in them, but am going to be looking hard at diversifying some of our funds towards them. Really appreciate the tip on TIPS. (grin)
