Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire is Cruz really out of it?A quick look at the math, cruz people only!

this is prompted by a cruz supporter saying they are capitulating another saying his wife is giving up. perhaps this post should just be for Cruz people only, trump people don't believe simple math.

2 weeks ago I conducted my own analysis of the delegates, upcoming states, who I thought would win those and how the math works. I have heard lots of people saying Cruz is done. I even felt discouraged myself. Tonight I went back and looked at my analysis I did 2 weeks ago to see whats different about it and how its changed. According to what I predicted back then at this point in the race I projected trump to have 2, yes 2 less delegates than he has now. Trump outperformed my estimate by 2 delegates. about as spot on as you can get.

its key to know whats happened in the last 8 days was predicted, it was predicted by myself and others studying this. no surprise.

trump has 994 delegates,

states left to vote delegates awarded and how,

1)indiana, winner take all (WTA) 57 delegates
2) nebraska WTA 36 delegates
3) west virgina direct elected 34 delegates
4) oregon proportional 28 delegates
5) washington, proprotional 44 delegates
6) montana WTA 27 delegates
7) new mexico proportional 24 delegates
8) south dakota WTA 29 delegates
9)new jersey WTA 51 delegates
10) california WTA 172 delegates

total delegates left 502,
trump has 994, trump needs 243 to hit 1237 or 48% of the total remaining delegates.

back then I projected Cruz wins in, indiana, probably his toughest state to win, with the exception of california. however kasich has dropped out which helps cruz immensely there. nebraska, and montana, south dakota ALL easy Cruz wins, I split delegates in oregon, washington, and new mexico, giving cruz a few extra in washington state,

now to trump, trump will clean house in new jersey I give him all 51 delegates there. What about west virgina? who the heck knows they elect these people directly and with a complicated system that I don't totally understand. Some say delegates have been recruited to run based on their name alphabetically. if that happens it could give cruz an edge. It looks like all but 9 are unbound, so they can vote as they please even on the first ballot. We also have no idea what happened with Pennsylvania's delegates, some say trump did well with them. in any event I gave the entire pennsylvania delegation to trump in my analysis.

what about california?!?! that decides the whole enchilada, There are some factors there, they don't vote until june, What about kasich?? could kasich be persuaded to exit the race? knowing that if he doesn't trump's win secures the nomination outright? and if he did drop out and Cruz wins california at least there would be a contested convention? who knows california is a long ways out there. The other factor is the Cruz ground game and time to work it. I think this really gives Cruz and edge on the ground with some time to do it. That is how he won Iowa.

so if that analysis holds up and Cruz can win California, that leaves trump with 1085 to about 1130 delegates. the delegate total for cruz or kasich mean NOTHING, the goal is simply keep trump hopefully from getting within 100 delegates. If trump only needs 30 or so he probably could get enough unbound delegates to seal the deal. If trump is 100 or close to that short CRUZ WILL BE THE NOMINEE on the 2 or 3 rd ballot, rumors are 1/3 or more of trump"s current delegates are cruz supporters, If thats true trump will lose hundreds of votes after the first ballot. Cruz currently has won the majority of delegates available in 9 contests, so he has cleared the rule 40 barrier. that is the Cruz path to the nomination.

hurdles? at this point perceptions by people thinking this is over. That is the biggest problem for cruz right now, Some say indiana is a must win, from the simple perception standpoint I agree, a loss to trump there will mean momentum has shifted totally to trump, it will also be a serious blow in the delegate count even if trump didn't secure 1237. Indiana, is the Alamo for Cruz at this point if he gets past that he can pull and easy win in nebraska and pull some momentum back. west virgina, will be a trump win, so again this isn't easy. an indiana win means Cruz lives to fight on. A loss and too many will think its over, even though mathematically it might not be.

the bottom line is nothing has changed from where I thought things would be 2 weeks ago. Cruz has a very very real shot at this, I say again if trump doesn't win on the first ballot Cruz will win the nomination. But then again Cruz could lose next week OR trump could win california and its all over.

Mathematically eliminated is a bad thing for a guy who needs a big win.

People don't want to vote for a guy who is going to lose.

People don't want to vote for a contested election because that is not voting for a candidate, it's voting to have a "lottery."

Tough space for Ted.

Bless your heart.

I said this is for cruz people only, mathematically I showed CRUZ is NOT eliminated and I explain why. in fact far from it. I give a detailed path how Cruz can still win. Its way more well thought out than just about every other post by the blow hards around here.

Wtf did you just say Cruz could win California?? Someone got into grandpas cough medicine...

After tonight’s primaries Cruz has — 560 delegates after winning one delegate Tuesday.
Cruz needs 677 delegates to reach 1,237 delegates.
There are only 622 available.
It’s over.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/04/official-ted-cruz-mathematically-eliminated-gop-race/


Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz is mathematically eliminated from winning the GOP nomination on the first ballot, according to The Associated Press.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...hematically-eliminated-from-first-ballot


Apparently everyone that can add has come to the same conclusion that Cruz is mathematically eliminated...

Cept you of course.

EDIT:

After Ted's appearance with Megan, apparently you have company in your delusions.

I prefer Cruz( although I think Trump has a better shot at beating Helldog) but I think that if Trump wins Indiana(which I think he will) it is all over. Trump is going to win California by double digits and even if the party plays games at the Convention, they dislike Cruz even more than Trump and will steal the nomination for someone else.

I see cowboy is bright as ever.




Travis

To say "he's out of it" would imply he was once "in it", when he never really had any chance of winning

Mares eat oats and does eat oats and little lambs eat ivy

I eat lamb and does.

now we are getting desperation posts, let it go dude. Cruz will continue of course as he is not the man you think he is and seems to want to cheat his way into the nomination but whatever, more and more people see him for who he really is.

I had high hopes for Cruz (and voted for him in my primary) but as this process has progressed, I'm not as impressed with him. Whenever he talks I feel like I'm being preached to and his campaign tactics have been questionable at best. He's done at this point and the stunt with Carly stinks of desperation.

I don't trust Trump but it looks like that's who will get the nod so come November he has my vote. We need to put this behind us and focus on November. So much rides on every election, but this more so than others.

Objectively, without considering Indiana or West Virginia...

NJ 51
CA 150 of 174 proportional
WA,OR,NM 50 proportional

994 + 251

1245

As in Penn, unbound delegates represent the voting block by percentage. There's no secret squirrel delegate society.

Telling Kasich voters to switch only means they stay home, reducing the anti-Trump electorate and increasing Trump's percentage over Cruz. That was piss poor strategy.

If your team is mathematically out of the playoffs attendance tanks at the end of the season. Few are going to wait in line with Trump voters to switch their choice. It's already happening in these later primaries.

There is no surprise surge of Cruz voters or delegates waiting in these last primaries.

It's been over since Trump won the SE red states at the beginning.

Kent

this here

I'm leaving the light on.

If Trump doesn't get to 1237 for the first vote, it goes to a 2nd or 3rd or possibly more votes, and it's up in the air. Each time this happens, delegates start switching around. It's a real possibility for Cruz and/or Trump to pick up, not only each others delegates, but Rubio's and Kasich's delegates.

This isn't the first time something like this happened. There will be a lot of talk about how the system is "Rigged" and people are cheating, but this is the process that we have, and we have to live with it.

If the system is rigged, so far it seems as though it's rigged in Trump's favor. I'm not sure what the actual statistics are, but he's gotten something like 40% of the popular vote, but has gotten something like 50% of the delegates, I think. I'm sure someone will set me straight on this.

a kid will eat ivy too,wouldn't you?

George,

This thread is for Cruz people ONLY.

You'll have to see your way out I'm afraid.




Dave

Ha ok!
I guess I'm just realistic
If a meteorite hits the Empire State Building at a 37 degree angle traveling from the west at 187,435 mph Cruz can win

Who cares about math. Not like that has ever stopped a Cruzer or a K-Sick supporter from throwing a vote away