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Joined: Aug 2004
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Campfire Kahuna
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Bottom dropped out again.

Back to the same prices we were getting since the 80's.

One reason cited is a glut of beef imported from China.




We're the gov't. We're here to help... mad


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Damn.


Mercy ceases to be a virtue when it enables further injustice. -Brent Weeks

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The thing that really hurts is that we had just bought some bred heifers, at a pretty steep price, when the bottom started falling out. They'll be old cows before we ever get our money back out of them. I guess I wouldn't mind the price drop so much, if prices in the grocery stores would follow suit. Now, I've heard people say that it takes a long time for those prices to come down, but that's something I've never really believed.

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You called it on September 12th:

I posted this: "With grain and cattle prices as low as they currently are, many farmers do need help.".

You posted this response: "Cattle prices are high now. Have been for a couple of years. Before that, for about 20 years it was a "may break even" proposition. I have every faith that cattle prices will plummet again though.".

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I'd LOVE to have the prices from 3 weeks ago, now.


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Originally Posted by JamesJr
The thing that really hurts is that we had just bought some bred heifers, at a pretty steep price, when the bottom started falling out. They'll be old cows before we ever get our money back out of them. I guess I wouldn't mind the price drop so much, if prices in the grocery stores would follow suit. Now, I've heard people say that it takes a long time for those prices to come down, but that's something I've never really believed.


Yeah, I hear ya.

Hamburger is still $5 a pound, which is what it went to during the very highest of cattle prices a year and a half ago. It's come down very little...

The beef market from kill prices to full replacement of the beef in storage for retail sale is 10 days to 2 weeks.

Someone is making a killing...


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My MIL sold 477 head between August 27th and September 8th for between $76 and $80 per CWT with the buyer picking them up at the ranches, 215 in South Dakota and 262 in Colorado. My BIL wanted her to hold off selling until the Colorado cattle would have to be hauled down off the high altitude summer pastures, but she felt that the prices were fair, the terms were good, and she had "a feeling", so she sold them all.

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Rockinbar,

Where did you get the idea that China is an exporter of beef to the US? They are potentially a major market. http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bee...-premier-statement-on-imports-1474494579

The 4 major beef processors (Tyson, Cargill, JBS, and National Beef) control the price they are going to pay for cattle with the importation of beef or live cattle from Canada and Mexico.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-september/how-much-us-meat.aspx#.V_ZtvPQvThU
The data is a few years old but is still representative. If a rancher isn't involved with direct marketing of their beef to the consumer they will always be at the mercy of the prices set by the big meatpackers.

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China just uplifted their 12-13 year ban on importing US beef, and like you say Phasmid hopefully they will be importing and soon.


I'm pretty sure they don't export beef much less to us.


The strong dollar and herd expansion caught up to demand and that's hurting the market right now.

It peaked in the final quarter of 2014 and has been slowly falling ever since. I don't think we've hit the bottom yet, maybe, hopefully.....

Live cattle have been hanging around a $1 for some time now.


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Sam, I was trying to find and post a graph of the cattle cycle.

In short, a couple years of smoking $$ cigars, and scratchin' with the chickens the other 85% of the time.


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Richard, good to hear from you!


Back to scratchin' by for now....


But that's just the way it is and will always be. Luckily if a guy keeps operating expenses low enough I guess there's still a little left over for cheap beer....

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Phasmid, I was listening to the report on the radio in my tractor. I thought I caught the gist of what the guy was saying, but it's kinda hard to hear over the drone of the equipment running.

The main take away I got was cattle selling for 89-93 cents now... shocked


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Originally Posted by rockinbbar
Bottom dropped out again.

Back to the same prices we were getting since the 80's.



Down here Australia cattle are at record highs:

Angus steer 240 kilos or 588 lb worth roughly AUD $ 4.40 per KG live ex farm...or AUD $1.80 per pound @ .75c exchange rate is US $ 1.37 per pound.

Totally weather driven pricing for the moment most feedlots and backgrounders going ok, cow calf operations very well. Most equity being lost in the packer segment of the market.

Not sure what happens in the new year...I think our beef cyle is about 3 years behind the US so we have a year to run yet...

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Rufus, that is interesting.

In northern Montana decent 5-6 weight steer calves are bringing around $1.25lb this week.

A year ago they were over $2/lb.


Roughly a $400 drop per head in price.

I'd say we are slightly better than break even with the current market.

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Sam, ever hear the joke from 1976?
Ford comes out with a "Cattle Feeder's Special pickup.

No seat, no steering wheel.

For the cattle feeder that has lost his ass and doesn't know which way to turn.


These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o
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Richard, now is the time to buy!


Cheap feeders and cheap feed, a guy can't go wrong....grin

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Sam, I watched PBS Market to Market tonight, Walt Hackney said much the same thing.

One thing about cows, and cattle, they sure enough keep a fellow humble.

Cows come in many shapes, and colors, but in the end there are only two, hungry cows, and dead cows.


These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o
"May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Richard, we preg tested heifers this morning.

Gathered yesterday and got a count.

5 missing but hopefully they are with the cows.

Tested 72 head and had 4 opens. Little under 5% which isn't too bad.


A guy can whine a little about the current market but we were blessed with great moisture this year. Already have a good head start on sub moisture for next year.

Crested wheat grass greened back up and is trying to grow. Some stock dams are full which is great considering it's October...

No complaints here.

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Sam hope you have lot's of good hay and water and no coyotes Russ

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Russ, we still have 60 acres of 2nd alfalfa cutting to cut.

To late now and it will never dry enough to bale, cows will be eating it out of the windrow when they come home for winter.


Luckily our neighbor has 100 ton for sale.

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