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With a possible pilot shortage looming, some in Alaska are especially concerned
Author: Annie Zak Updated: 13 hours ago Published 14 hours ago



In a state where many people live off the road system and rely on aviation for everything from grocery deliveries to medical transportation, some in the aviation industry are concerned about how growing global demand for pilots will affect Alaska.

And others say a pilot shortage has already arrived.

"We're extremely concerned about pilot supply over the next one, two, three to five years," said Brad Lambert, vice president of flight operations at Horizon Air, speaking broadly of the airline's operations, and not just in Alaska. "We're just concerned there won't be enough young people entering the profession."

But in Alaska, where air travel is so crucial, the effects might be particularly acute.

"It's the lifeblood of Alaska, especially within rural Alaska," said Corey Hester, executive director of the Alaska Airmen Association.

The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development estimates that employment and job openings for airline pilots, co-pilots and flight engineers will grow nearly 12 percent between 2014 and 2024. Openings are also "very high" for aircraft mechanics and aircraft service technicians in Alaska, according to data from the Labor Department.

Airlines and educational programs are trying to create new paths into such careers, or ramp up their recruiting efforts, and it's becoming harder to get people into the profession, even as longtime pilots and mechanics age out of the industry.


Matt Atkinson, president of the Alaska Air Carriers Association, said that group has been discussing the issue of a shortage of workers in the aviation industry for the past six to eight months, and specifically what the sector can do to increase the number of pilots and mechanics in Alaska.

"It's hard enough to get people who are experienced enough to fly, and retention is difficult," he said. "The experienced pilots with these commuter airlines are going to be sucked up rapidly (by big airlines who will have a shortage)."

Between now and 2035, "the aviation industry will need to supply more than two million new commercial airline pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew," according to a 2016 pilot and technician outlook report from airplane manufacturer Boeing. That's because airlines will take delivery of "tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners over the next 20 years" due to global economic expansion and busier flight schedules, the report said.

Specifically, the industry across the globe will need 617,000 new commercial airline pilots (112,000 of those in North America alone), 679,000 new maintenance technicians and 814,000 new cabin crew over the next 20 years, the report said.

Atkinson and others say a combination of forces is at least partly to blame for the problem: Older pilots are retiring, and the Federal Aviation Administration recently upped its requirements for how many hours of experience co-pilots need in order to fly passenger and cargo airplanes.

Some in the industry, however, push back against the assertion of an industry-wide pilot shortage. Paul Ryder, resource coordinator for the Air Line Pilots Association union, said there isn't currently a lack of pilots in the U.S., but rather an issue with airlines offering competitive pay.

"What we are seeing is a pilot pay shortage," he said. "Carriers that aren't competitive, they have a hard time attracting that talent."

A 2015 study from research institute Rand Corp. found that there would "not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained."

"Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots," the study continued. "All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide."

A report from the Government Accountability Office in 2014 found that the data were mixed regarding the extent of a pilot shortage. That report cited labor market data from 2000 through 2012, which showed the unemployment rate for pilots "has been much lower than for the economy as a whole, which is consistent with a shortage."

"On the other hand," it continued, "wage earnings and employment were not consistent with the existence of a shortage, as data for both indicators showed decreases" during that 12-year period.

That GAO report also found that fewer students are entering into and finishing collegiate pilot training programs.

Ralph Gibbs, director of the University of Alaska Anchorage's aviation technology division, is on the optimistic side when it comes to people who want to become pilots in Alaska.

"Now is a really good time for any Alaskan who wants to get into that industry as a profession," he said.


The Alaska Air Carriers Association is hoping to get more people into the industry with a new apprenticeship program that would allow students to earn a wage during training. The association recently landed a grant from the state's Labor Department to develop and launch that program.

Lambert said that at Horizon, part of Alaska Air Group, there is still demand from young pilots to be based in Anchorage. Horizon has even developed a set of short-, medium- and long-term strategies to help curb the impact of a worker shortage. Those involve improving pilot pay, developing agreements with flight schools and teaming up with universities to recruit more people into the industry.

Companies both large and small are adapting their strategies to recruit and retain talent.

Daniel Knesek is the director of operations at Yute Air, which serves the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region in Western Alaska with a fleet of Cessnas. He said a pilot shortage isn't something happening in the future; it's already here. Last year, he said, Yute was "losing so many pilots to regional airlines" that it had to increase the number of new-hire classes it held throughout the year.

"It makes it difficult to have enough pilots for the fleet," he said.

Knesek also can't afford to be as selective as he used to be in hiring, and more candidates are coming from Outside. In the five years he has been in his position, he said that the number of resumes he receives from pilots who are already located in Alaska has "died off completely."

Some smaller companies like Yute are struggling as their pilots leave for positions at regional or national airlines as jobs are opening up. That's in part because bigger airlines can offer thousands of dollars in signing bonuses, Knesek said.

As large airlines like Alaska, American and United start to grapple with older pilots retiring out of the workforce, those companies are looking to regional airlines to fill their ranks. In turn, those regional carriers recruit from smaller companies, including Land and Sea Aviation, a flight school that operates at Merrill Field.

Brandon Avola, manager at Land and Sea Aviation, said the flight school gets pilots who want to train for a hobby or who are looking to build up their hours to work professionally.

"With people scooping up pilots quickly, it's harder (to keep instructors)," he said. "As these guys retire from the major airlines, everybody is moving up. And then people at the air taxis and sightseeing places, they're all going into the regional airlines."


Training to become a commercial pilot also costs thousands of dollars, and people in the industry say that in recent years it has only become more expensive.

"What does concern us is, the pilot population is declining, the demographic is getting older, it's hard to compete with other recreational activities, there's a lot more regulations, and it's more expensive to get into," said Adam White, who runs government and legislative affairs for the Alaska Airmen Association. "There are a lot of different aspects of this problem."

Forgot to add the link...

http://www.adn.com/alaska-news/avia...some-in-alaska-are-especially-concerned/

Imagine that, the small regional airlines aren't paying going wages and hence can't attract or retain talented pilots. So having more people attend pilot school and having inexperienced pilots that they can pay poor wages to is the solution.

I've yet to know of a company that failed by hiring the best and brightest, but have seen the results of the opposite.

As far as skill goes. A pilot that has just got his ticket will be as good as he's going to be. Judgment that's another matter. Just my opinion. --- Mel

I have been a flight instructor and commercial pilot for over 40 years and the FAA pilot exams are set at a basic skill level. Experience counts a lot more and is also where you learn judgement. That is the real equallizer. You can learn HOW to fly in as little as two week but learning WHEN to fly takes a lifetime !

I can definitely say, from flying thousands of miles with small, regional carriers and pilots of varying experience, that skill in Alaskan flying definitely improves with experience in relative conditions. Gravel runways singularly oriented to the prevalent wind direction have put to test even some of the pilots new to the region who have many hours of military experience. And some of the new pilots can barely grow their whiskers which can be even worse. There is a reason why the small regionals I usually fly with, reportedly hire pilots with a minimum of 1300-1500 hours.

They are called Insurance Companies !

but for the what it's worth cagagory - by the time most pilots reach 1500 hours they are getting pretty good and capable of getting top performance out of their aircraft and starting to feel invincible. Which is why around 1500 hours a good portion of pilots learn they are NOT Invincible !

Whats the minimum requirement to become a commercial pilot? Didn't they increase it to 1500 hours or something?

Seems like the shortage is only going to get worse.

So statistics affirm my experience? Who would have thought?

As for the part about becoming invincible, I would expect you are very correct since so many of the good, older pilots have tales- if you ever are privileged to hear them open the old film cans of memory- about a 'blip' or two in their relatively early flying careers. There must be something about 'learning from experience' that rings true as so many of these guys are such solid, reliable pilots in later years....the ones that survive that is.

And then I think about fellows like the company pilot who we flew with many times, who had flown a group of school board members to a meeting one afternoon. Nearing the meeting's adjournment, he left to get the plane readied for the return flight. When his passengers arrived sometime later, they found their pilot dead from cardiac failure.

Every once in a while I try to count pilots I knew that augered in. Two hands don't cover it and adding feet only just barely does...

In Part 61 of the FAR Pilot Qualifications For Certificates and Ratings, You need 250 hours of logged flight time along with passing the Written, oral and a Check Ride to get a Commercial Pilot Certificate! You will still need to have an instrument rating as well! Now here is were the fun part starts, out side of towing banners, the only other way to built flight time and its all about flight time, is to become a flight instructor, that is anohter written, oral and check ride- you then teach in a flight school for it could be years! To fly for hire is mostly FAR Part 135 for VFR you need to have at least 500 hours logged, and there will be a written exam, oral exam and a flight check! For IFR same drill but you have to have 1200 hours logged! The 1500 hours it the min fight times required for the Airline Tranport Pilot Certificate! After an Accident in NY, a senator from NY thought it would be a good Idea not to allow airlines ( commuters and reginonal) with flight times less than 1500 hours! That is wear that number comes from! Depending how good or bad he economy is will depend on how long it will take you to build up your flight time, these numbers are the minimums( in the real world, compeative flight times would be more that that, right now a lot more). And due to the fact that its an expensive thing to do, and the first few jobs will pay poorly, not many youngsters are taking up the skill and profession! The economy has been in bad shape for a good decade now- And in order for you to build up the flight time needed, you will flight instruct, and you will be creating at least 20 new pilots on the way to that airline seat, so there will never be a pilot shortage, right now there is a shortage of experienced pilots that will fly for the pay offered! I myself told a Regionl to go pound sand at the time I had 16K in my logbook and they offered me 19 a flight hour! The fact that I was also a little to old at 58, made the decision a no braine! The Bottom line there is no pilot shortage, I been hearing about his since I started back in 1974! Yea, insurance plays a part, along with over litigation- There is a long learning curve here, the hardest part of all of it, is knowing when to just say no, I am not going to do that! Alaska puts a lot of pressure on pilots, pay wise, its hard work and due to the remoteness, you are pretty much on your own! Its getting better but, no matter what you logbook has for flight time, it will take dam near five years of steady day in and day out flying, to really become a good "Bush Pilot"! Maybe more! As for artical, its 100% BS, they just keep writting the same old same old year after year! Flight school use it to get students, Some commuter and regionals use it to complain and not pay anything if they can! A friend of mine got on with Mesa in late 2007, just this past July he made Captain and is now just starting to actually make some money, most would consider it not really all that great since he got between College and flight school, some 17 years into it now! Take this all with a grain of salt! Oh and most Alask flying jobs are very seasonal!

This sure sounds awfully familiar, having watched two brothers scratch and claw their way into the business. One of 'em lucked into a corporate flying 'promotion' from his A&P job. The other flying bank receipts for peanuts when Mickey D's would have been more lucrative, but without getting those hours. Both fly big iron now; one has often talked about getting back out to flying small stuff again, but the wear and tear of freight/baggage handling that goes with it is better suited to younger backs and bodies. I truly admire the guys who are still doing that stuff daily with aging bodies.

I use to fly cancel checks, I would go to work at 7pm for a 9pm departure, I would fly some 10 to 12 instrument approaches a night if the weather was bad, and get back to base at 7 am in the morning! In those days we could fly more under the rules, now you can't. I flew a Cessna 310Q, I also have flown film when people took photos and had them developed, now it's all digital and cancel checks are pretty much gone! So you go fly for a FEDEX feeder, in a 208, you don't fly much and it's about 40 thousand a year after a few years! I myself will be starting a job Dec 1, I have been unemployed for a while, it's a short contract, it will be over June30 and I am happy with the 6500 per month for a paycheck, its also in the Southeastern part of our country! After that, I don't know! I have been flying now for almost 42 years! I am going to be turning 62 in February!

I worked for a large trucking company that trained their own drivers. They found that new drivers had a lot of accidents, small ones, trailer doors ripped off or mirrors broken. Drivers with two or more years had more bad, fatal, accidents.

Some of the pilots from some of the smaller carriers have left and gone to the -48 for commercial flying jobs.

No chit there is going to be a pilot shortage, why would someone go $50k-100k in debt to learn to fly just to get paid $20k a year starting off? Is where the aviation industry was for years.

It is great to see some of the regionals are starting in the $40s-50s now. Know a few 60 guys who are going to the airlines as they're leaving the Army and flying little regional jets.

I'm about to start up at a flight club to get my fixed wing ratings. Will be for fun in the near future and probably go airlines when I'm done with the Army as well.

True, and depending in what environment new commercial pilots kick off in, the experience curve can be rather steep & abrupt
or more kind & gradual....most of my colleagues from the 1990s made it, but some were dead & buried rather early.

Unfortunately instructors that became so from a pup and all they do is instruct from the same airfield,
don't always tend to impart as much valuable knowledge & experience to students the way that instructors
with 10s of 000s hrs PIC in a variety of aircraft and operating environments can.

Don't forget that most major airlines require a bachelors degree on top of your flight time.

In my experience, the great majority of major airline pilots are military trained. Given the flight profiles involved, this is a good thing. Mil pilots have a lot of experience shooting IFR approaches using heavy iron, into major airports. They have experience managing a crew aircraft (surprisingly important), and have a plethora of experience doing things "by the book." These pilots have a BS degree, and typically move straight from the mil to a right seat in a major airline (like Alaska).

On the other hand, the up and comer civvy guys have to build their time the old fashioned way. They have to earn their private through part time and full time jobs, then either college loan, or debit their way through the commercial ratings. This requires doing the "dirty work" as a local and regional pilot. These are the guys that will bunk 4 to a room, making less than minimum wage, flying 3-12 passengers at a time in the most challenging weather conditions on the globe.

These later mentioned pilots are generally easy to come by, and disposable to the average small part 135 operator.

The analogy of "fly for typical Alaska small airline, or flip burgers... pays the same" is aprapo.

Until the culture changes, and small airline pilots are paid well, and the small airlines can be more selective in hiring, safety on such small airlines will remain very poor.

Pay for new pilots has always been low because flying was glamorous and bunches of people wanted to do it. Flying has come to be considered more of a job than a glamorous occupation so it attracts fewer persons wanting to be pilots.

Flying has become a lot more expensive. Not like the days when one could rent a C-150 wet for $8 to $12 per hour. Instructors also wish to be paid more and when they find out the won't be they drop out leaving instructors who charge more.

Flying has become more regulated taking some of the pleasure out of it. This is less true in AK than the lower 48.

If you don't have enough wars, you don't get enough ex-military pilots who have been trained to fly jets, helicopters, etc.

I would say airlines will have to pay more for their pilots and people will have to pay more for their transportation.

Same here - new guys made procedural mistakes, older guys made complacency mistakes which tended to be more fatal.

Doesn't take long to get rather lazy and at ease behind the wheel of a truck.

If you want to read a good book that lays this all out pretty good, read "Squawk 7700" by Peter Buffington. It is a real eye opener as to how bad the small airlines and freight companies abuse young pilots who are willing to fly almost for free to build time for a "real job."

I work for one of the largest, if not THE largest flight training school in the US. These kids all have a dream of being a captain on a wide-body someday. Instructor turnover is huge; kids teaching kids.

Most of our students are contract students and headed for foreign jobs though.

They teach them to fly assuming that they are going for an airline job. No seat of your pants stuff, no thinking outside the box, just get them ready for a commuter airline.

Dennis, my first flight instructor, who was my college roomate, just retired last year as Delta's senior 747 captain and check pilot. He said a vast majority of airline pilots now have no basic stick & rudder skills. They were trained to airline standards to be heavy jet drivers and most couldn't even look down at a lake or pond and tell you which way the wind was blowing on the surface.
Fortunately, since he is over 65 and can't fly the heavies, he has gone back to instructing instruments students in a Cherokee.

I believe him. I see their students fly every day. I see their lesson plans. They are purely there to get you ready to fly a big jet. I don't think it is unique here, either. When I go up with instructors, it's all about numbers. Everything is done by numbers. I'll none of these kids could fly a plane without a glass cockpit either. I guess it is working good enough or they wouldn't do it.

In the auto industry there is all this talk about driverless cars, but how long has the military been using drones ? things are changing

Aren't military drones flown remotely? as opposed to flying by computer?

Yes, the USAF has "Remotely Piloted Aircraft" - RPA's, not drones.

In fact, the definition of "drone" is an aircraft operating autonomously. In USAF documentation, the MQ-1, RQ-170, etc are referred to RPA's. Drone is just a word that the stupid media has latched onto in ignorance.

Also, RPA's have an atrocious mishap rate in the USAF- many times higher than manned aircraft.

Thank you for the clarification! Add "drone" to Saturday night special, and weapon.

Drones of mass destruction.