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Even experts in the same office disagree.

Scott Denning is a compatriot of Bill Gray , whose specialty is hurricane predictions. Gray has been one of the earliest and most outspoken critics of the global warming theory.


Casey


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Not being married to any particular political party sure makes it a lot easier to look at the world more objectively...
Having said that, MAGA.
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If not CO2 - what explains the present trend?

The CO2 models - and concentrations - seem to be the most plausible explanation.

That is - without a political bias to the contrary.


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Hhmm isn't CO2 necessary for plant life? How about natural occurrence. Doh!


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If not CO2 - what explains the present trend?



The fundamental problem with your question is that there is absolutely nothing unusual about the Earth's present temperature or its rate of change compared with historical norms. If you look at unaltered base data, with reasonable smoothing applied, we are in a temperature range that is easily explained by normal random variation. In that case, there is no need invoke some special cause. That is a bedrock rule of statistics.

Here is smoothed historical data for Salt Lake City, near where I live. Each blue triangle is the average of the 17 preceding data (averages the noise down by a factor of a bit more than 4).

Do you honestly see cause for alarm?

[Linked Image]

Well, you say, it's only temperature data for one location. Maybe the rest of the world is different. OK, let's look at the average of all the Nordic surface temperature stations. that's here:

[Linked Image]

Does the general shape of the Nordic curve look familiar? It should. Overall, it looks a lot like the Salt Lake City data.

Can you genuinely say that the present situation is so special as to require its own explanation? I can't.

Just for fun, we can stretch the Nordic data until the scales match the Salt Lake data and overlay them. You get this result:

[Linked Image]

Yup, there are some interesting differences, but broadly they match. Whenever I can get to unmanipulated data, I seem to always get the same result: There is absolutely nothing unusual about today's temperature that requires any explanation at all, other than normal random variation.

The well-known hockey stick graphic that got everyone so concerned is a mathematical construct. Mathematical constructs always yield to real data. The hockey stick fell apart and broke down in the face of real data, starting several years ago. It simply does not match the real data anymore. Well, it never did, either. But the basic fact is that the model did not survive a collision with reality, and a model that does not survive a collision with reality is not worth many tears. You can only torture the graph into the shape you want for just so long. Eventually, it will be free.

So, my friend, your question is moot. There is no reason to answer the question, why are present temperatures so boringly similar with those of the past?

Last edited by denton; 12/25/09.

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Temps here ran under by 3 degrees for the last month. Average ambient temp comes on our power bill and was -3 over last year which was -2 over the previous year???????????

Glo Bull warming has that real fresh dairy smell around here.


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Originally Posted by BCBrian
If not CO2 - what explains the present trend?

The CO2 models - and concentrations - seem to be the most plausible explanation.

That is - without a political bias to the contrary.


ever heard of sunspots?


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Here's a basic scientific investigation checklist. How many of these criteria does the AGW theory meet?

1. Verify and characterize your measurement system. Be sure that it has sufficient repeatability and accuracy to reliably detect effects that are important to your argument.

2. Capture and preserve your raw data. Make it available to everyone.

3. Perform your analysis. Preserve all details of your analytical methods, including all assumptions.

4. Give all of the above to everyone who has an interest your findings. Encourage them to pore over the data looking for errors. Encourage them to re-do your analysis. Encourage them to cross-check the results in new ways.

5. If you can get people to do that, and all the findable errors are found, all the analyses prove to be consistent and error free, and nobody can come up with a better explanation than yours, then your idea will be accepted.

I score IPCC 0/5 on that list.

Gee, someone should make that list his signature line....

Last edited by denton; 12/25/09.

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The answer to your question is easy BCBrian. It's all that hot air from you talking out your ass.


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denton - you're the man!

I have seen this data before as well and came to the same conclusions. Anyone good at modeling can make models show anything they want them to.............

steve - very good find. You are right - that is as succinct as can be put IMHO. Being a Geologist by training and profession, I could not do a better job of stating the facts from a geological point of view.


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You're preachin to the choir brother...

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Obviously nobody bothered checking out the link in my previous post, so let me try this again. Interestingly, Scott Denning works in the same office and sees the same data as Bill Gray--and Gray is one of the most outspoken and early critics of the global warming theory.

Adding heat changes temperature

Scott Denning and Todd Ringler � December 24, 2009

Previous coverage of the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen often includes some basic misconceptions. We'd like to point out some facts that are not in dispute and try to cool tempers a little.

We're both climate scientists with decades of experience: Scott Denning is a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, and Todd Ringler is a scientist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

One common misconception often repeated in the media is that concern about global warming is based on recent warming trends. We hear endlessly repeated arguments about how much (or how little) the weather has warmed in recent years.

Television pundits and politicians sometimes talk themselves blue about whether recent warming is caused by people or natural cycles. But the reason we expect the climate to warm with increasing levels of COis not based on past trends. It's based on simple measurements of heat radiation from the gas itself.

The Earth's temperature is set by a balance between incoming heat from the sun and the radiation of that heat back to space. Molecules of carbon dioxide and water vapor in the air absorb some of the outgoing heat and radiate it back down to the surface, like tiny heat lamps in the sky.

The heat radiation from COmolecules was first discovered almost 150 years ago. The properties of the gas are not in the slightest dispute and can be measured by any laboratory with exactly the same results. The basic science was done before the Civil War and does not depend on complicated computer models.

When scientists predict global warming due to continued reliance on fossil fuels, we are simply saying that if you add heat to the surface of the Earth, it will warm up. Another undisputed fact is that since 1800, the amount of COin the air has increased by about 35 percent.

If it were to double from preindustrial levels, 4 watts of heat would shine down on every square meter of the planet: that's the equivalent of a tiny night-light bulb that burns 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

You'd think pundits who predict this will not cause climate change would have some kind of explanation for why this extra heat will not warm the planet, but they don't. They seem to think that because there are natural climate cycles, or because the climate has not yet warmed catastrophically, or because of hacked e-mails in England, the laws of physics have somehow been repealed.





Sorry; adding heat to something changes its temperature, unless something else takes the heat away.

Media pundits also seem to think the sky will fall if we burn less fossil fuel. This view betrays a very dim view of human history. If the naysayers had their way, we'd still be driving buggies.

Some argue our entire modern economy rests on the subsidy of cheap fossil fuel. If they are right, our children's future is dark indeed because industrialization in China and India will soon outstrip world supplies.

We take the more optimistic view that human ingenuity and creativity can and will lead to a bright future in which billions of people can live well without burning coal, oil or gas.



Casey

Not being married to any particular political party sure makes it a lot easier to look at the world more objectively...
Having said that, MAGA.
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adding heat to something changes its temperature, unless something else takes the heat away


Absolutely true, and beyond dispute. And a thoughtful and informative post, too.

The "hide the decline" comment that is so widely quoted actually referred to a major unexplained divergence between the hockey stick model and the real data. When the model does not match the real data, the model loses, every time, all the time. That is also beyond dispute.

The net of all this is that I'm being asked to believe a predictive model that doesn't match the data, that has to distort known historical events to reach its results, and is thus unverifiable and immeasurable and contrary to known facts. And I can't find any evidence in the time series model that helps their argument.

So is there man-global warming? Is it a bad thing? Is it of sufficient magnitude to concern us? I don't know. All I can say is that from what little I can see, the evidence doesn't meet my five-point test and I hold the result as inadequately supported.

OTH, should we be moving away from fossil fuels? You bet! We ought to be building nuclear plants like mad and working hammer and tongs on fusion reactors. It is an observed and measurable fact that that will improve the quality of the air that we breathe and of the water in our rivers, lakes and seas. That is reason enough.

I'm very encouraged by the price trends on photo-voltaics. If those trends continue, in a surprisingly short time they will be quite cost effective. I think it would be great to see homes roofed with the stuff, and everybody's home system phase synched with the world.

BTW, I am old enough to remember what seemed like pretty much the same bunch of people that are now on the AGW bandwagon being staunchly opposed to nice, clean, efficient nuclear reactors, and getting them stopped in this country for decades. But maybe that's just my perception.

Last edited by denton; 12/26/09.

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I've been out shoveling and moving global warming residue for the past 6 hours. Algore and BCBrian can shove AGW where the sun don't shine. I think we got over a foot on the level but you can't tell as there is anything from bare ground to 5 ft drifts around my house. Thank goodness for ATV's with snowplows (so I can contribute to AGW bullschitt that it is!) My neighbors were darn glad to see me!


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Thanks, Steve. That was excellent.

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Well, I for one, am glad for AGW; this blizzard would have been much worse had the polar ice caps not been melting and the temps rising especially, strangely, in metro centers where there were universities receiving grants for their research on weather, especially if it-the research-showed a warming trend. My neighbor down the block, usually a reliable sort, thought he saw a polar bear in the swirling snow which of course would have been much worse except for the rising temps. I think he just had cabin fever form staring out of the window for three days. grin

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I keep looking at it from the perspective and wisdom of "Follow the Money" If people are NOT somehow convinced that we have global warming, how are you going to SELL Carbon Credits?
I have also asked many times how did mankind melt the over 1 mile high glaciers that covered all of Canada and lots of Northern US. The sad part is,,, so many fall into the myth because a$$holes like Al Gore promote it and has already made millions of dollars on a stupid, unprovable story.

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Originally Posted by Mannlicher
it was 70F here this morning. Damn warm for December. smile


You live in Florida...jackass

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You made me spit good bourbon through my nose.....warn a guy would ya! laugh


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I got my 4 wheeler stuck on level ground trying to run in about 16 inches of heavy snow... IN NORTH CAROLINA! Global warming... maybe Gore and the other warmists will start trying to sell bridges and prime swamp land next after this Winter gets done making headlines...


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Originally Posted by Ruger 4570
If people are NOT somehow convinced that we have global warming, how are you going to SELL Carbon Credits?




Via legislative act.
Tons of products and services (especially "servics") that no one would otherwise ever purchase.

We must never forget what the delectible Hillary Clinton once said, "The free market has failed" and that many in national gov't are true believers. For decades ALL therein have strived to make it a reality.


Originally Posted by Ruger 4570
so many fall into the myth because a$$holes like Al Gore promote it and has already made millions of dollars on a stupid, unprovable story.


Yes, but it was such a lovely slideshow.
Certainly worthy of SOME sort of reward...



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