Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Are We About to See a Global Gold Selling Spree?

Right on queue.

I do my best.

This is misleading. 65/1500 is almost nothing. Call me back when it drops 20 percent.

rather silly to think that you have just 2 choices.

Shiny metal is just that.. shiny metal. As much as the gold bugs want it to be more.. they are left with shiny metal. There is no guarantee that people will barter for shiny metal. Food, medical supplies, skills, protection.. people will all barter for those.

You are right, but they normally have bartered with paper or metal.

Schitt. I just wish it would stop taking oil down with it. Down 3% so far today.

That's Al Gore logic. If it gets cold it proves global warming, if the dollar strengthens against gold it proves the dollar is ready to collapse.

Yes smart folks are going to take advantage once gold hits bottom and they'll be able to buy a lot more of it because they didn't buy when gold was over $1,700 as some on 24hr were advising.

Half of the price of gold is a fear premium, which has been coming out of the price in the last few weeks as the stock market rally continued. As gold drops below key levels it triggers automatic selling, which drives the price lower. Now fear is running the other way and investors are getting out to avoid a blood bath, which drives the price down more and increases the panic.

The best bet to stop the decline in gold prices is if NK launches a missile or some other conflict erupts that threatens world trade and economic activity.

The fact that the USD index hasn't really moved today supports your comments about the fear premium. TRH is far off the mark in his analysis of what is happening and why.

Longbob and MacLorry, it's evident you both are students of the game.


my take is the US$ is the prettiest of the ugly sisters, it seems to me the US$ could strengthen for some time to come as folks look for "safe haven" status.


but is being in US$ a good move? does the FED buying have no effect upon what a greenback is worth at some point?


buy low sell high is a pretty easy concept, but a mite harder in actual application from my experience


it seems the US$ is a very good place to be currently aka cash is king

but is it a smart move for the long haul, is supply vs. demand an outdated concept?

it seems to me the FED is vastly increasing the supply, but demand is as strong as it's been in some time.

if you can help a poor old country boy understand these simple concepts I'd be much obliged.

mind you I'm not asking for free investment advice, I'm just curious as to how and why the dollar is in such great shape considering the actions of the FED

Yes. What will happen when the Fed starts printing 150 billion $/ mo. To try and stimulate the economy?

Supply and demand is never an outdated concept. The US isn't alone in the printing of their currency. The gold bugs that I have seen on here seem to forget that factoid. What is also lost in the mix is the improving balance of payments with our burgeoning energy boom. I am not saying this is going to bring down energy prices, but it will change the economics and fear premium (for the US at least) for years to come.

There will be some point down the road where the Fed will indicate they are either slowing down or stopping the QEs. I wouldn't want to be holding gold when that happens.

You are correct that the US had become a "safe haven" and this helped the greenback when Europe went into their troubles like we had. That strengthened the dollar. Now we have the domestic energy play helping.

Get ready for China's implosion to further help the dollar as they seek a safe haven for capital. I bet there are some serious discussions going on behind the Fed doors that they will ease up on the purchase of bonds and let the Chinese do it. This will be a quiet form of backing off the latest QE.

And who gives a flip if the Chinese own a bunch of our debt. We OWE them the money. Not the other way around. That is not to be construed as me supporting us being in debt, but the old saying goes "If you owe the bank a little money then you have a problem. If you owe the bank a lot of money then they have a problem."

I bailed out of the mutual fund "Permanent Portfolio" on Friday. This fund is comprised of a mix of gold, silver and Swiss Franks, US treasuries and some high grade equities. I was just getting a bad feeling about the direction of gold and treasuries as interest rates rise.

Here's story for the gold bugs here: "Amid Gold �Slaughter,� the $1,300 and Even $1,200 Marks are Lines in the Sand"

see: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...300-even-1200-seen-as-lines-in-the-sand/

it's already down more than 25% off its highs.

spot gold off almost 8% today, silver also getting hammered.

Fox Business: Gold Bugs 'Panicking,' Selloff To Continue: Analysts

Excerpts from the article. . .

Gold bugs thrive on a sense of panic to push their view that gold is the safest investment of all. But who�s panicking now?

On Monday gold saw its biggest decline in 30 years as institutional investors, mostly mutual funds and the like, dumped the precious metal like a load of dirt.

And hedge funds have reportedly been betting on a gold decline for months, foreshadowing the steep decline of the past few days

�It�s difficult to say with gold what the actual value is. It�s not an industrial-based commodity. It�s worth what people say it�s worth,� Schork said.

�There�s blood in the water,� said Schork.

Blood in the water is usually a buy signal, but I want to wait for the market to find the bottom. Better to buy at a little higher price on the rebound than to jump in too early and become part of the blood bath.

It's awesome! It's like Cabela's having a limited time 25% off sale on .22 long rifle bricks with dozens of pallets in stock.

Soros wins again.

The metals selling websites are all crashing and burning with the number of folks clamoring to buy. Their servers can't handle the volume.

Longbob I have stayed out of these gold conversations (and most other conversations tbh) but I think I have noticed some of the same things you have.

Trouble is that China is so opaque and bereft of good data that it will be impossible to tell if that is the source of this or not for a while. If ever. Still it kind of looks like Asia is the source of this latest round of risk off and China in particular. Looks like you have a lot of folks worried if China's thirst for commodities might be played out for a while. They may have finally cracked just a bit.

Add to that the extraordinary number of gold investors in the market for all the wrong reasons... well it kind of got messy in a hurry.

I don't particularly like conspiracy theories and this time is no different. The Fed may indeed hold a lot of gold but this time there isn't just a pump/dump in one category. Gold and silver and oil are all taking a beating back of the woodshed. At lest to me that implies that this one is a bit different.

Could be wrong.

Will

I am surprised you can hear that over the screams of the knife catchers who have bought every dip on the way down.

Ah well, they aren't alone. Been a whole lot of folks who ~finally~ backed the truck up and loaded down in stocks. 4 years into a historical bull market. With landmines going off all over the globe. And conflicting economic indicators flashing green and red all over the place.

When you have a market this dependent on Fed largesse it is VERY tough to find a safe place to hide.

Will