Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Are We About to See a Global Gold Selling Spree?

Commodities tend to move in lock step, Will.

if you know of a safe place to invest would love to know. I got out of the market at 14000 and stop buying gold at $1300. Sold off gold last December.

So much contradictory info, misinformation out there now very difficult to find a place to put investments.

I'll make you a deal, if I find one I'll let you know about it.

I've made some terrible investing mistakes in the last several years. I got out of the stock market right before the crash in 2008. (Very good move)... but then I stayed in bonds. (Not a good move) I continued to buy stocks with fresh money from the crash onward (Good job) and even took a good bit of the gains off the table when the all time highs came in. (Great job) But I left a lot of it on the table. (Bad move!!!) Went long energy in 2008. (Good job) But also invested in alt energy (Shakes head sadly)

I guess I am a lot like quite a few folks. Sometimes I do smart things and sometimes I do dumb things. The crash in 2008 and the housing bubble bust were so easy to see it was scary. Now? An absolutely unprecedented market.

Long term I still believe gold will be a good investment. But IF this is a symptom of bad things in foreign lands taking shape I have to remember what happened to gold the last time we had a serious market correction/crash. Gold wasn't immune, it was tanking like everything else.

Maybe I am just a cautious person? I'm sure as hell not someone who could sell investment advice.

Will

You can put me on that need to know list , if you would, Penguin.

Just tried Monex and Goldline and their sites are respoinding just fine.

+1

I went into a stable value fund around DOW 14000 after catching a 5% gain in January, missed the last 800 point run up. I'm waiting to re-enter stocks, but I'll be patient. If I catch another 5% this year I'll be ecstatic .... .

Will do... man talk about waiting for a horse to come in.

I guess one of the biggest lessons I have learned in investing may not be applicable to anyone but me. It is this: I have a certain personality and for me to have any peace of mind I have to stay within the bounds that my personality is comfortable with.

I am so cautious with money that it just isn't in my nature to take huge gambles and when my Spidey sense goes off I follow it. Sometimes I win and sometimes I don't but I never forget my planned retirement age. Never beat them in the quarter mile.

Will

If you are looking for a safe haven then you truly have to define what you mean by safe haven. Safe can mean liquidity, stability, inflation protection, etc.... Those things can be independent of each other.

I feel a better approach to investing is that each and every investment you have must have a compelling reason to be in your portfolio. Whether it is any that I mentioned or say dividends for example. If the compelling reason you own an investment is for rising dividends then ask yourself in times of turmoil "Has the compelling reason changed?" If not, don't sell and maybe consider adding to the position.

If it has changed then you must figure out a way to unwind the position if it is not at a point of fortunate liquidation. You can bet that every investment that you own (or just about) will have a time of turmoil and these gut checks are important.

YMMV.

There is no ONE safe place to put your money. I invest in TIPS, muni-bonds, and stocks. All my investments pay dividends, some each month, some each quarter, some at the end of the year. Today with the stock market down sharply I'll lose money on stocks, but the increase in TIPS will more than likely cover the loss and I'll have an overall gain for the day. I make money on the dividends while the value of different types of investments seesaws back and forth.

I buy and sell as investments rebound off the bottom or ricochet off the top. Think of it as a ratchet system that climbs the wealth tree. The bigger the waves the faster it climbs.

Yes, it takes some work to know what to do and when, and you have to keep an eye on what the Fed is planning so you don't get caught invested in the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Be cautious on the TIPS. There are two components to TIPS. The interest rate and the inflation adjustment. Since there are two, then the interest rate is very low.

This low rate causes the TIPS to have an unusually long duration. What they don't tell you about TIPS is that a rising interest rate environment to combat inflation will crush the TIPS value due to the long duration.

You should be good on the muni bonds for a while depending on issuer.

Yes, there's risk in TIPS, but I have made a load of money in them. The trick, as with any investment, is to know when to buy and sell. The good news with TIPS is that the Fed gives lots of warning as to what will trigger it to move one way or the other.

The Fed mainly controls the short end of the market. They cannot control a more normalized yield curve on the longer end as easily. That is what can sneak up on the TIPS.

My stocks are doing well, especially the pharms and my real estate is down about 3% due to one dog I own and can't unload.

I know a guy who can take what's under his kitchen sink and turn it into a 1000 bucks a day. The rub is he's looking at 3-10 years.

Based on advice from my neighbor , who is an astute investor, I invested in REITS 2 years ago. They have been paying well so far.

Sitting on sidelines with investments for the time being

The yield is so low on TIPS that there's little downside risk from that aspect. TIPS are being used as a safe-haven when stocks are in retreat, like today. Unlike gold, there's no built-in spread between the buy and sell price of TIPS and if you hold them through a mutual fund, they pay dividends.

The trick will be to sell them at the right time.

Until you try to buy something.

Same here on biotech, constr/housing, transportation, Japan and even my relatively low risk lifecycle fund.

The yield being so low is exactly why there is a risk of downside in rising interest rates. The low rate creates an unusually long duration. Long duration bonds react inversely to interest rates.

TIPS risk article 1

TIPS risk article 2

TIPS risk video

It really starts at about the 2:45 mark. The interviewer brings up the ability to get out of them quickly if needed. You can see the manager's hesitation of even he being able to do it in a timely fashion.

I realize you have done well in the TIPS and you should have with the longer duration favoring them with lowering rates. My comments about caution is when rates rise due to inflation. That is what can take the TIPS investors by surprise.

I think I believe MacLorry's experience over yours.

Don't trust me. Do what I did. Call them and ask why the online process that's normally smooth is constantly crashing during the sale process. They'll tell you it's heavy volume. Then try getting an agent on the phone, or even getting one to call you back. Same deal. Unusually heavy sales volume is the reason they'll tell you.