Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Is panic buying finally coming to an end? Maybe so!

Read this economic report concerning the firearm industry:

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--why-gun-sales-are-in-a-slump

Maybe GUN sales are down, but some ammo - especially 22lr - is still non-existent on the shelves around here, along with powder, primers and cases.

Here in Wyoming I have seen a boatload of primers on the shelf. Even CCI's. Over the weekend I scored a pound of RL-15. That is the first I have seen on the shelf in about a year & 1/2.

Typical dataless analysis of the situation, leading to a totally unsupported conclusion.

Check out my video on the topic:

[video:youtube]1GCH1w8iLQ4[/video]

Dicks sales are in the tank because they have ignored their base, and chit on their suppliers. I hope they go out of business.

Yep, and I'm really disappointed in the ammunition industry'd non-addressing of the issue. Oh yeah, they're working 3 shifts, but clearly we need expansion. How many years before they wake up that demand is just plain higher?

Ammo sales are just a 'canary in the coalmine', schitt's hitting the fan and folks don't feel it hitting them in their faces:

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488920

Retail store results for the 1st quarter of 2014 have been rolling in over the last week. It seems the hideous government reported retail sales results over the last six months are being confirmed by the dying bricks and mortar mega-chains. In case you missed the corporate mainstream media not reporting the facts and doing their usual positive spin, here are the absolutely dreadful headlines:

Wal-Mart Profit Plunges By $220 Million as US Store Traffic Declines by 1.4%

Target Profit Plunges by $80 Million, 16% Lower Than 2013, as Store Traffic Declines by 2.3%

Sears Loses $358 Million in First Quarter as Comparable Store Sales at Sears Plunge by 7.8% and Sales at Kmart Plunge by 5.1%

JC Penney Thrilled With Loss of Only $358 Million For the Quarter

Kohl�s Operating Income Plunges by 17% as Comparable Sales Decline by 3.4%

Costco Profit Declines by $84 Million as Comp Store Sales Only Increase by 2%

Staples Profit Plunges by 44% as Sales Collapse and Closing Hundreds of Stores

Gap Income Drops 22% as Same Store Sales Fall

American Eagle Profits Tumble 86%, Will Close 150 Stores

Aeropostale Losses $77 Million as Sales Collapse by 12%

Best Buy Sales Decline by $300 Million as Margins Decline and Comparable Store Sales Decline by 1.3%

Macy�s Profit Flat as Comparable Store Sales decline by 1.4%

Dollar General Profit Plummets by 40% as Comp Store Sales Decline by 3.8%

Urban Outfitters Earnings Collapse by 20% as Sales Stagnate

McDonalds Earnings Fall by $66 Million as US Comp Sales Fall by 1.7%

Darden Profit Collapses by 30% as Same Restaurant Sales Plunge by 5.6% and Company Selling Red Lobster

TJX Misses Earnings Expectations as Sales & Earnings Flat

Dick�s Misses Earnings Expectations as Golf Store Sales Plummet

Home Depot Misses Earnings Expectations as Customer Traffic Only Rises by 2.2%

Lowes Misses Earnings Expectations as Customer Traffic was Flat

Of course, those headlines were never reported. I went to each earnings report and gathered the info that should have been reported by the CNBC bimbos and hacks. Anything you heard surely had a Wall Street spin attached, like the standard BETTER THAN EXPECTED. I love that one. At the start of the quarter the Wall Street shysters post earnings expectations. As the quarter progresses, the company whispers the bad news to Wall Street and the earnings expectations are lowered. Then the company beats the lowered earnings expectation by a penny and the Wall Street scum hail it as a great achievement. The muppets must be sacrificed to sustain the Wall Street bonus pool. Wall Street investment bank geniuses rated JC Penney a buy from $85 per share in 2007 all the way down to $5 a share in 2013. No more needs to be said about Wall Street �analysis�.

It seems even the lowered expectation scam hasn�t worked this time. U.S. retailer profits have missed lowered expectations by the most in 13 years. They generally �beat� expectations by 3% when the game is being played properly. They�ve missed expectations in the 1st quarter by 3.2%, the worst miss since the fourth quarter of 2000. If my memory serves me right, I believe the economy entered recession shortly thereafter. The brilliant Ivy League trained Wall Street MBAs, earning high six digit salaries on Wall Street, predicted a 13% increase in retailer profits for the first quarter. A monkey with a magic 8 ball could do a better job than these Wall Street big swinging dicks.

The highly compensated flunkies who sit in the corner CEO office of the mega-retail chains trotted out the usual drivel about cold and snowy winter weather and looking forward to tremendous success over the remainder of the year. How do these excuse machine CEO�s explain the success of many high end retailers during the first quarter? Doesn�t weather impact stores that cater to the .01%? The continued unrelenting decline in profits of retailers, dependent upon the working class, couldn�t have anything to do with this chart? It seems only the oligarchs have made much progress over the last four decades.

Sometimes "losses" aren't really such. They just reflect a downturn.

Waaaaaaaaa !!!

Well done, Denton.

Exactly. It's higher because more people got into gun who were never into guns before when Obama got elected. That's not just temporary.

TARGET, and a few other stores who no longer allow the Salvation Army bell ringers and who do not have their staff say "Merry Christmas!" but rather "happy holidays" can ALL go down in flames as far as I am concerned.

Ignore your customers and do your own thing = die a long, slow and painful death has always been the rule.

At the Academy in Galveston (This Weekend) I bought some

223 55g Softpoint (Brass) ammo for 9USD for 20 rounds

45ACP Win White Box for 45 or 48USD(Not sure) a box of 100

And some Spartan Buckshot for 11USD for a box of 20


The prices are up but not that bad

Lots of the stuff there

Snake

Those reports and losses will be even higher once the full effect of the recent IRS decision to force companies not to have their employees get insurance through the ACA. The extra taxes paid by them AND the employee are going to further exacerbate unemployment.

This administration is simply evil..

Can't remember when 30-30 ammo was on the shelves around here.

I doubt I can shoot up all the powder, bullets and .22 lr that I have on hand but it's not because I was smarter than any of y'all...I'm just lazier.

Interesting information to say the least.

I just read an article about how the economy is starting to pick up. They were basing this article on the reported new Truck (semi) Sales. New sales numbers are new given though.

On the other hand the Greenies are trying to stop expansions in country and exports to foreign countries. Coal and Oil by way of - pipe line and rail service. All by way of lawsuits.

Plus just wait until the new insurance premiums that will be out this fall. They are to be in hand prior to the November election. Not to mention the insurance policies that will be canceled.

Still don't think I trust info from zero hedge. ZH, for example says GAP was down 22% in the first quarter, while GAP says they were up 1%.

[/quote]Well done, Denton. [/quote]

Yes indeed, well done Denton.

Fuel and electrical prices are up causing all food and transportation costs to increase cost of most products. The health care costs and rising medical costs that have been slowly taking effect such as the 3% medical device tax - Wait until the self insured companies are forced into ACA or have to pay taxes on the company portion of their plans....Way more people will be short of disposable income and the economy will continue to slide. People may want to start getting a long term food supply stored instead of more .22 ammo than can be used in a life time or cellular phone features.

Dicks sucks..... useless excuse for a sporting goods outlet.

in a Sierra News Letter: RE 22 LR Ammo Availability

Even though Sierra BulletQuestionMarks does not make .22 LR ammo or projectiles, we are constantly asked �Why can�t I find any .22 LR ammo anywhere?� Even the conspiracy theorists are at a loss on this one as they can�t even blame it on the government. They toss around thoughts of warehouses full of .22 LR rotting away just to keep it out of their hands, but that does not seem very realistic � even to them.

So what is going on here? Why is it that 1.5 years later, the shelves are still empty and bricks of .22 LR can still be seen selling for upwards of $75-$100 at gun shows? I do not believe there is one answer, but rather a few. Here are my opinions on the matter, for what they are worth.

Hoarders � Some people are piling it away in their basements, garages, bunkers, and under their beds due to fear of not being able to find it again. This is not a huge factor in it, but it is still a factor to some degree. When these hoarders can�t find it on shelves, it only panics them more and causes them to buy even more when they do find it.

Gougers � These are the guys who prey on the fear of the hoarders. These are the guys that wait in line at Wal-Mart at 3 a.m. to buy up the daily allotment that Wal-Mart puts out at normal retail prices and then double or triple their price on the weekend gun show circuit. Again, not a huge factor, but keeping the shelves looking empty which keeps the panic level higher for those that are looking.

Demand � Now we are getting to the real meat of the issue. You hear manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their Rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY (estimate on my part from numbers I have heard from the big rimfire guys) into the market � so how can there be a shortage? I have asked this myself � until we start doing even a little basic math. You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number � let�s cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot � right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let�s say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all � is 17.5 BILLION rounds. Let that sink in. Even at 25 million rounds being made PER DAY � that is 1.92 years� worth of production.

Starts making some sense then doesn�t it? Hoarding and panic emptied the shelves. Gougers try and keep them empty and demand does keep them empty. Then factor in that I probably cut the real number of 22 LR shooters in � and probably underestimated the amount everyone would buy if they found it at normal prices by 300% and you can see how deep the problem really is and why it is not going to go away tomorrow. It also does not take into account the world market � just the USA.

How will it get better? Slowly. The hoarders will get to a point that they feel they have enough or will run out of money. The shelves will start getting enough on them that the gougers cannot buy it all. This will make people stop paying $50-$75 for a brick at gun shows. That will make it less profitable for the gougers to spend their money on and they will stop. The shelves will start to have product again which will ease people�s fears and get them back to buying what they need today instead of what they need for the decade. There is no fast answer.

Are the manufactures hiring people for extra shifts and adding capacity � sure they are. But it is easy to just expect them to ramp up production overnight to take care of our needs, but that is just not realistic. We get the same thing here. The market certainly has not grown 500% so what happens when companies add all that super expensive equipment when things get back to normal? They take a bath on it for sure and waste capital that they could have used to improve their company in a way that makes them stronger. Instead they just added equipment they may never need again and have to mothball while they lay off workers they no longer need. Not a great way to run a business and not a fair way to treat employees.

We all just have to trust that it will get better, do not buy more than we need and wait it out. It will not get better overnight. It will start out with a box here and there and then a few and then slowly the shelves will get back to having all the supply and selection we picky consumers are accustom to and will certainly appreciate much more than we ever did before��if only for a little while.
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