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Pinnah Offline OP
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Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)

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And the point of your question is ?

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The vitals of a deer being the size of a basketball - would have to be really bad rifle not to hit them at average deer hunting ranges. Those that shoot long range/ELR and should be shooting at that range probably don't need a scope to tell them anything. Those that are shooting long range/ELR and shouldn't be - probably wouldn't listen to the scope anyway.


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Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

I think he was trying to draw out bitter azswholes, and he got one in the first response.

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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?
I think he was trying to draw out bitter azswholes, and he got one in the first response.

LMAO.


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the older many of us have become the higher the percentage of a kill shot , kids learning to hunt is probably a lower percentage ? too put a percentage on kill shots would be hard ?


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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

I think he was trying to draw out bitter azswholes, and he got one in the first response.
Ya reckon?

Ha!

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Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

Sure.

I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim.

With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land.

The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land.

The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity.

All of this begs the question I asked.

I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass?

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I can’t see real far, longest shot is 200 yards, so I’d say 10 out of 10. I havent missed in a while.

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

Sure.

I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim.

With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land.

The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land.

The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity.

All of this begs the question I asked.

I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass?

Wouldn't the measurement really be - average distance of POI from POA on a SINGLE cold bore shot? That's the 1st shot and likely the most important one.

3 shot group, on a deer, shots 2 and 3 would have a PILE of more variables entered - such as the running deer, loss of good mechanics as you hurry to run the bolt and next shots etc.


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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by gunswizard
And the point of your question is ?

Sure.

I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim.

With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land.

The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land.

The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity.

All of this begs the question I asked.

I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass?

One of the last ways I want to fug up a recreational sport is with probabilities statistics.

Last edited by MikeL2; 03/01/24.
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Originally Posted by Teal
The vitals of a deer being the size of a basketball - would have to be really bad rifle not to hit them at average deer hunting ranges.

The problem is for me, that traditional 3 shot groups aren't sufficient in determining if a rifle is good, bad, or really bad and what the chance of making a clean shot is at different distances.

I've gotten a few 3 shot groups from my lever gun under an inch. Best was 3/4". Sounds good right?

But, when aggregating 20 on the same target:
  • The mean radius is 1.46, which means 50% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 3" circle.
  • The extreme spread (i.e. group size) is 5.2".
  • The R95 is 3.1, which means 95% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 6.2" circle.


When you add the error for rise and drop of the trajectories for different zero points (e.g., 100 yds, 110 yds, 120 yds) and assume a point blank center hold, then off the bench, the gun could be expected to hit a basketball or pie plate with 95% out to about 125 yds. And at 200 yds, the R95 tells us that 95% of the shots should be in a 12.5" circle. That is, long shots don't give me a high hit percentage even if I had a perfect zero dialed in and was shooting from the bench.

Now... I don't want to drag people into a long discussion about how to best determine the accuracy of a gun (although, I'm fine with that). What I really would like to know is what other hunters think is "good enough" on hit likelihoods.I'm pretty conservative and view my lever gun as a 100 to 125 yd gun, which is fine for my uses in the woods. But I can't see using it to hunt meadows and power lines.

What likelihood do you expect from your deer guns?

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Originally Posted by MikeL2
One of the last ways I want to fug up a recreational sport is with probabilities statistics.

Are you ok with fugging up a buck with a low probability shot? I suspect not.

Even just spitballing a number, what level of confidence do you expect from your gun/ammo when you pull the trigger? 95%, 50%? Or is it just let 'er rip?

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by Teal
The vitals of a deer being the size of a basketball - would have to be really bad rifle not to hit them at average deer hunting ranges.

The problem is for me, that traditional 3 shot groups aren't sufficient in determining if a rifle is good, bad, or really bad and what the chance of making a clean shot is at different distances.

I've gotten a few 3 shot groups from my lever gun under an inch. Best was 3/4". Sounds good right?

But, when aggregating 20 on the same target:
  • The mean radius is 1.46, which means 50% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 3" circle.
  • The extreme spread (i.e. group size) is 5.2".
  • The R95 is 3.1, which means 95% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 6.2" circle.


When you add the error for rise and drop of the trajectories for different zero points (e.g., 100 yds, 110 yds, 120 yds) and assume a point blank center hold, then off the bench, the gun could be expected to hit a basketball or pie plate with 95% out to about 125 yds. And at 200 yds, the R95 tells us that 95% of the shots should be in a 12.5" circle. That is, long shots don't give me a high hit percentage even if I had a perfect zero dialed in and was shooting from the bench.

Now... I don't want to drag people into a long discussion about how to best determine the accuracy of a gun (although, I'm fine with that). What I really would like to know is what other hunters think is "good enough" on hit likelihoods.I'm pretty conservative and view my lever gun as a 100 to 125 yd gun, which is fine for my uses in the woods. But I can't see using it to hunt meadows and power lines.

What likelihood do you expect from your deer guns?

Again - I don't shoot 3 shot groups at deer. I shoot 1 shot groups. I want to know, on average, the largest deviation I can expect POI from POA from a CBS. I find this tends to be much lower than 3-5 shot groups.

Determining the "accuracy" of a rifle - yeah, group sizing you're talking about makes sense to show how accurate the rifle is overall. But in your lever gun -

How likely was that 5.2 shot as the FIRST shot in the string? To me that's the important piece.


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What about the buck fever factor?

I must admit, I enjoy my lifesize hog gongs at 200 and 300 yards. Can shoot them from the bench or from field positions off your backpack, sitting, etc. Fun and revealing at the same time.


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Originally Posted by Teal
Again - I don't shoot 3 shot groups at deer. I shoot 1 shot groups. I want to know, on average, the largest deviation I can expect POI from POA from a CBS. I find this tends to be much lower than 3-5 shot groups.

Determining the "accuracy" of a rifle - yeah, group sizing you're talking about makes sense to show how accurate the rifle is overall. But in your lever gun -

How likely was that 5.2 shot as the FIRST shot in the string? To me that's the important piece.

Two related, but different issues.

First, how should judge the accuracy of our rigs? We can agree to disagree on if the test target should be created off of a series of single cold bore shots, or 3-shot strings off of a cold bore. I want to know what the gun is capable of if follow up shots are needed and you may not. I'm not looking to shut off discussion of the best test protocol but I'm more interested in the second question.

Second question, what is the minimum hit likelihood do you expect from your hunting gun/ammo? 95%? 50%?

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I’ll play.

I shoot a good deal of jugs and steel plate at distances from 200 to 450 yards throughout the spring to early fall.

Distance on game with a particular rifle is limited to the ranges where I was 100% successful during the final weeks of practice. Meaning I hit the jug or the painted circle on the plate first time and every time.

Reality of course is more challenging than practice, so I am accepting a less than 100% chance of success, but I am shooting under conditions where I have assessed my equipment and skill sets as being up to the task.

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by Teal
Again - I don't shoot 3 shot groups at deer. I shoot 1 shot groups. I want to know, on average, the largest deviation I can expect POI from POA from a CBS. I find this tends to be much lower than 3-5 shot groups.

Determining the "accuracy" of a rifle - yeah, group sizing you're talking about makes sense to show how accurate the rifle is overall. But in your lever gun -

How likely was that 5.2 shot as the FIRST shot in the string? To me that's the important piece.

Two related, but different issues.

First, how should judge the accuracy of our rigs? We can agree to disagree on if the test target should be created off of a series of single cold bore shots, or 3-shot strings off of a cold bore. I want to know what the gun is capable of if follow up shots are needed and you may not. I'm not looking to shut off discussion of the best test protocol but I'm more interested in the second question.

Second question, what is the minimum hit likelihood do you expect from your hunting gun/ammo? 95%? 50%?

Concern for me is the 1 shot deviation from a CBS POA. That's my primary concern because that's the primary execution of my deer rifle. 1st shot. Precision is the 3-5 shot group which has f-all to do with an expected hit on a deer for shot 1 because you can be rather precise but not accurate and being so is unhelpful.

If shot one consistently hits more than .1 mil away from POA and POI is consistent but not anticipated, I'm not actually sighted in, am I?

EVERY group group I shoot, I expect and strive for the groups POI to match POA or within about .3 to .5mil at 100yds - give or take. And that's fun and we all do it, be it 3 or 5 or 10 shots but when talking about ethic/deer - I'm MOST concerned about shot one because get that wrong, rest is a rodeo.

After round 1 on game - hits are on me, not the rifle as running game and my ability to make the corrections plays a MUCH larger role in making that shot than load/barrel consistency. So precision isn't a great indicator of likelihood of me making the next shot.

My ability to swing and fire with lead is a larger influence over the results than static testing on a bench of potential precision to the point where I don't think the average shooter can confidently state "I missed on shots 2 - 5 on that deer because the rifle was imprecise and not because I was inaccurate with my shot".


Ethical hit percentage really is more about shooting ability. If your 1st CBS shot goes POA/POI - how often do you, as a shooter make POA shots in the right spot given external influences such as wind or distance? To me that's where the ethical question comes in - if you have a rifle that shoots POA/POI together and you miss 5/10 shots - that's you, not the rifle or load.


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You can't establish a hypothesis/null-hypothesis scenario with infinite variables. Impossible to achieve any statistical relevance with such a set up.

For valid statistical results, the question has to be carefully structured. Otherwise, there is no way to ever determine an answer to a flawed question.

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The arrow is the only thing taken I to consideration.

What calculates the ability of the Indian?


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