Haven't seen a good lively debate on here in a while. Coins, bullion, and other precious metals; are they investments or only for TRH?
To all who have interest,
Some thoughts, short version:
Money can be made or lost in gold, oil,stocks etc. I know for a fact that money can be made in the gold markets. Developing an understanding of the particular market itself is crucial. Like everything, you do better if you buy low and sell high.
For example, one might say that oil has been manipulated downward as Obama and the Saudis make life difficult for Putin. Since oil is down now and oil stocks have suffered, one might consider oil stock like Chevron, down 16% for the year but likely to be up if the depression of oil prices lasts only a year or so. Chevron is a better buy now than it was a month ago when it was 11% or so higher. Pays a 4% dividend as well.
The point is, one must understand the why and when of buying or selling. Steelhead made this point very simply.
Trading the markets can be done successfully if you watch and wait for market distortions... like we have in oil now... at least I think so. An understanding of time frame is crucial... do I expect a return in a few months? A year? A decade?
There was a market distortion in the late 80's and most of the 90's in the gold market. Some of you may remember when Britain was selling it's Central Bank gold reserves. Gold was clearly manipulated lower and Central Bank selling was brutal. Gold was selling at or below the cost of production. It was simply a great buy at the time. Some of us saw this and bought... then bought some more.... then more... and held until the distortion ended and the gold price rose.
Buy gold at $1800? Not a chance. Buy gold at $1200? maybe a little but only if one is able to hold it as "insurance" ... Buy gold at $900 - $1000... yep, back up the truck and load it up. The time horizon for a 2014/2016 gold buyer must be at least three years... Buy it and hold it until the next distortion up.
I like the idea of going into oil stocks now for a 1-3 year hold. Oil historically trades in a range from 9 to 20 barrels of oil per ounce. Seems to average about 14 or so. Today that ratio is 21 or so. Something wrong, a distortion is occurring right now. My sense that if oil does not go back up soon, gold will tumble.
Anyway, there you have some thoughts. Do what you think is best.
TF
Oh btw... I think if one is going to go into precious metals, a very significant percentage should be in silver and maybe platinum.