MANCHESTER, N.H -- If Marco Rubio won the Iowa caucus by finishing third last week, Ted Cruz just won New Hampshire.

Cruz (R-Texas), the actual winner of the Iowa Republican caucus, finished third in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday night, behind life-sized Chucky impersonator Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. In other words, he lost.

But don't count Cruz out quite yet. Just two of the 48 states have voted, and Cruz has the money -- and the polling numbers -- to stay in the GOP race and, potentially, win it.

Cruz, a methodical politician, plotted a course to the nomination months if not years ago, with a strategy to stay in contention long enough to make it a one-on-one race with an establishment-backed candidate.

Along the way, he has amassed tremendous resources. Super PACs that back Cruz have raised more than $42 million; his campaign has raised more money -- $47 million -- than any other Republican, save Ben Carson, who spent much of it on fundraising expenses. And he has the most cash on hand for the stretch run -- $18.4 million as of Feb. 1 -- despite already spending $28.4 million.

In New Hampshire, Cruz spent little of that money, with rival Rubio (R-Fla.) throwing nearly 30 times what Cruz did at the state.

Nationwide, GOP voters overwhelmingly like Cruz, and consider him one of the only candidates with a realistic chance at winning. Just 15 percent of Republican voters say they would definitely not support him, placing him behind Rubio or Kasich as a consensus candidate, but leaving him far more acceptable than either Jeb Bush or Trump.

Trump, though, is a hitch in Cruz' plan. While the establishment has warmed to him, Trump's far from an establishment candidate, throwing off the Cruz plan to be the most conservative candidate remaining in the race. His plan to wait for Trump's inevitable collapse is being thwarted by Trump's refusal to collapse. And his plan to challenge an establishment candidate in a final showdown has been stunted by the establishment's refusal to find a candidate to back. Rubio, who looked on his way to that spot, face-planted in New Hampshire. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who surged to second in New Hampshire, has barely any money and minimal support in the south. And Jeb! Bush can't get out of the single digits.

Cruz' vociferous appeals to religiosity, useless in the nation's least religious state, is likely to give him an edge in heavily evangelical states, many of which are front-loaded in the primary calendar. His campaign has long viewed the March 1 "SEC primary," a collection of religiously conservative Southern states, as especially fertile ground, with Cruz expected to rack up a number of Texas’ 155 delegates. (Texas is not a winner-take-all state.)

But as The New York Times' Nate Cohn points out, Cruz' win in Iowa offers some real warning signs for his candidacy. Cruz's victory rested primarily on the strength of voters who described themselves as "very conservative" -- a group that makes up a large swath of caucus-goers in Iowa and Nevada, but a far smaller bloc in most other states.

Cruz’ rise may also be part of Rubio’s fall. A number of New Hampshire voters at a Cruz event on Monday told HuffPost that they were choosing between Cruz and Rubio -- and Rubio’s exchange with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie during the GOP debate over the weekend had done him no favors.

“He doesn’t really have much of a good rebuttal,” Jake Hochschwender of Newfields said of Rubio. “Sometimes he just kind of seems like a deer in the headlights.”

Hochschwender was previously leaning toward Rubio, but Rubio’s recent struggles to break from his talking points highlighted his inexperience, Hochswender said.

Another voter, Dan Irish of Hookset, reported that, while Rubio’s debate performance hadn’t cost him his vote, it did open the door for Cruz to win it. “I was leaning toward Rubio before the debate,” Irish said.

Irish said he was looking for two things from a candidate: conservatism and the ability to beat Hillary Clinton. And Rubio’s flub seemed to have exposed his vulnerabilities. “That was a bad moment for Rubio when he kept bringing up the issues with Obama,” Irish said.

If you believe voter anecdotes, there was a real chance for Rubio to steal from the likes of Kasich and the rest of the field. And Rubio missed his shot.

How much has Trump spent? Last I heard he hasn't even spent 3 million.

Yeah, and Bush spent over ten times that for a distant 3rd place finish. Loser.

4th place finish

All these dumbass writers make everything too complicated. It will boil down to liberal vs. conservative as always. Republicans nominated liberals the last two elections and lost their (our) ass. George W. Bush won easily, because the voters THOUGHT he would be a conservative, after Clinton fatigue. How'd that work out?

Liberalism is killing America and it doesn't matter whether it is Republican or Democrat.

Well, I'm all about Cruz, hope things swing around for him in the south but I'm afraid people want to gamble on real "CHANGE" AND DT is the one for that, for the better or worse. As said before, I don't think DT can be bought & paid for & I think other countries will be scared chitless of him. That said, I hope TC can get things going his way. Everyone has an opinion, that's why we have free world elections, but I think TC is the best over all for America and the citizens. Keep our military strong & keep us free! JMHFO.
Jim D

I hear you. I can't wait for Cruz to win the Republican nomination by coming in like, 3rd or whatever.

What intrigued me somewhat is how Christie's slamming of Rubio during the last debate provided a boost for Trump and Kasich.

With Kasich done after SC,it's reassuring to know that many Rubio and Kasich supporters would naturally move to the Trump camp.

That's all nice. Now, for the important stuff. Who's he gonna replace 3-5 Supreme Court Justices with? His sister? Even his most ardent supporters admit he's not conservative. Why doesn't that matter?

You figure like a lawyer

This has a ways to go yet. On the other side I hope looney Bernie gets the nomination. It's almost amazing and sad that his ramblings resonate with so many.
We are already in a deep hole, more taxes and promises and it will all be better?

I don't know about Rubio and Kasich, but Trump and Christie are two peas in a pod. He'll get them quick.

Love me some Bob! I think of this every time be does that.

TFF !

I'd just as soon they were replaced with Justices without an agenda either way, other than sticking to the constitution.

But that's just me and my warped vision of things oughta be.

That's would work if they were all in a plane crash.

I never really thought much about why Cruz sounds like an AM radio televangelist.

His path to the nomination is trying to wrap up the evangelical vote.

I doubt there is anything actually sincere about this man.

Unlike Trump, he's not a big supporter of affirmative action, but I realize that kind of stuff doesn't matter to you guys.

As long as Cruz burns no bridges, I don't see why he wouldn't be at the top of the list. Sometimes true service means taking the job you're offered as opposed to the one you want.

Trump is never going to be on the SCOTUS, but other than Rand Paul and Cruz, are there any of those dickweasels that you'd trust on the SCOTUS? If not, then why would you trust them to make nominations?

Where we are effed is the Senate being a rubber stamp for any Dem President's nominees.

I've said since Iowa that I wondered how Cruz would fare against Kasich and Bush in NH.

It's comforting to know Cruz's awesome ground game in NH was at least awesome enough to secure his squeaker 3rd place finish over Bush.

So much for the epic fail of the "Trump Inevitability" thread.

We at least got to see who the voters actually believe is the anti-establishment candidate vs. the establishment candidates.

for anyone paying attention, there isn't much that matters to Cruzettes at this point either

Yup.

Only conservatism. Rubio would work. Or Carson. Paul was good too. It's not about Cruz. It's about saving the country.

so you're not voting for Trump if gets the nomination

might be a rock and a hard place to push the idea that a real conservative wouldn't vote for Trump

I've already answered that, but it's beside the point. A liberal is a liberal...Republican or Democrat, the results are the same.

Pat, there is a chance that were Trump to take the POTUS that Cruz could be nominated to the SCOTUS. I'd take that trade.

With Hitlery or Sanders, we will get SCOTUS nominees that make Kagan and Sotomayor look "moderate", and those two will be the face of a 5-7 vote majority on the SCOTUS for decades.

ABC

Don't get your britches in a knot just yet...It's only the first primary. North east was pretty much a given in voting liberal....nothing more nothing less.

I'm not worried about Cruz. I'm worried about liberals. I've supported Cruz because he's the least liberal. Liberals are the death of us.

My frustration is that any Republican voter would vote for a liberal before a conservative. I have nowhere to go. My team wants the other side to win, ultimately.

Your frustration is isolated more towards your confused,misplaced labeling of viable Republicans.

You're right, with "viable" being the key word. I am frustrated that the only candidates "viable" to Republican voters are those most like Democrats.

I don't know why it's so hard for some of you guys to understand that Trump is nothing but a jackass in an elephant costume...it's really pretty simple when you look at his PAST support of liberal candidates & issues....

In regards to the 2A issue, I seen a post yesterday that said Trump "walks the walk" because he's got a concealed carry permit...well so does Chucky Schumer & Dianne Feinstein...

All you have to do is win a republican primary.
dave

Yea, but hes our jackass.

dave

Sad but true

conundrum is WWTD(what will Trump Do)

Right now he's all big talk,vulgar talk for 2A, torture the likes not seen since medieval times or Pulp Fiction,Build a wall,throw illegals back,kill ISIS,get tough with N Korea and China....sounds like a dream conservative candidate right?

But previous actions over a sustained period of time makes one wonder what happened did Scrooge's ghost come and show him the light or is he just saying what we want to hear to close the deal after all he is the master manipulator and great deal maker it's art according to Trump

We have to avoid the arrogant presumptions and in party divisions caused by an unwavering and undeserved belief that all republican voters must believe exactly as I do or suffer the risk of being foolishly labeled a liberal or non-conservative.

The arrogance and presumptions of the inner factions of the GOP is it's own worst enemy. This is partly what has lost us elections and what has made the democratic party as successful as it has been against our party.

In fact, the GOP, in looking only at the tree rather than the forest, are arrogantly incapable of becoming cognizantly aware of the dynamic or realize how the dems have capitalized upon this self inflicted party turmoil and they'll continue to have the upper hand until we do figure it out.

I think Bob just called us stupid.

Right now he's all big talk,vulgar talk for 2A, torture the likes not seen since medieval times or Pulp Fiction,Build a wall,throw illegals back,kill ISIS,get tough with N Korea and China....sounds like a dream conservative candidate right?
-------

Except for the "vulgar" talk and the wall, what above is different than what Cruz has talked during his campaign?

Not stupid; just arrogant and foolish.

===========

I would have said confident but instead I'll use hope when I say I hope you're posturing rather than believing such a thing.

Hahaha...just kidding. I don't know what you said...too many big words.

I will say we are all stupid if the GOP doesn't coalesce and unite following the nomination.

For sure, and the only way that will happen is if the nominee is conservative. Wishing that fact away won't make it any less a fact.

I'm laughing so hard I spit my drink out "Bob just called us stupid"

Cruz means it ,Trump I question because of his past position
Like I said if he's not blowing smoke and sunshine up our keisters he's just what the Dr ordered but something about a leopard and spots...sorry to bring up the leopard Bob but it seems apropos

Hey Pat I used a fancy word too

Indubitably.

Caffeinated unsophisticants are never not funny. Almost as never not funny as inebriated unsophisticants, but it's a wee early in the day for that - even for the coonass versions thereof.

You burned out your spell check feature with that one.

Here here,to coffee and Red Bull the breakfast of champions!

Cruz is looking at the South Carolina evangelicals with Huckabee and Santorum no longer at the table, Carson's low chip pile, and smiling like Mark Twain's Christian holding four aces.

I think "Arrogant Presumptions" is just his word/words of the day... Kind of like "political hyperbole" a week or two back...

Some people get tunes/melodies stuck in their head...for Bob, it's words...

i agree

Itppowel is 100% right yet again!!!!!!!!!


Vote for Ted Cruz!

My hope is that this is like brothers fighting but when the enemy steps into the fray the R's band together and fight

I keep hearing this but it's totally illogical and plainly wrong.

Billionaire's obviously have a warm place in their hearts for one thing more than anything else: MONEY! Money, and the power it brings, of course. The Clinton's have lots of money and if Hillary is the POTUS (God forbid!), they will also have lots of power and even more money as they corruptly sell the office to the highest bidders. And everyone knows they will. So Trump's little reprieve from his daily routine will likely pay yuge for him, which is what he, and other billionaires, are all about.

He doesn't sound a thing like a TV preacher. I never heard him pronounce God, Gawd, and he doesn't put an "a" at the end of a lotta words, like they do. What he does sound like is a guy whose brain is firing on all cylinders. Cruz is smooth and when he talks, he communicates a message that's understandable, clear and on point. I can see how that might addle a Trump supporter used to not really knowing what Trump just said but enjoyed the crassness in the presentation.

Ya know, that last slam about sincerity is something you can't back up. The man has accomplished much for the cause of conservatism while an attorney and a senator. It sounds like either a desperate lie or out of total ignorance for who Cruz is and what he's done for the cause of conservatism.

That said, we know what Trump has done for conservatism: nothing but negatives.

Cruz has been very sincere when he stood virtually alone in the Senate and fought the Establishment on both sides.

He sounds just like the lawyer he was when he stood before the SCOTUS and fought for our 2nd Amendment.

Don't sound like a preacher to me

Come the primary election i will still vote for Cruz.

Have not seen anything to make me change...yet.

Rush just said it. "If conservatism is important to you, then you have no choice but to vote for Cruz."

..but I'm not naïve enough to believe most Republicans are conservative.

Bob said you are

Fiorina out.

Don't be arrogant and foolish.

and yet I won't vote for Cruz first

please, tell me - I'm begging someone to say it that you can't be a conservative and vote for Trump.

Or stupid.

Tis better to be stupid and conservative than smart and liberal

Well duh...it's not like it's against the law for a conservative to vote for a liberal. Just weird.

See! He did it again.

Well, if they just stayed stuck.......

Maybe you can be a clinically deceived one. I dunno.

It's dificult for the healthy to understand such diseases of the mind.