this is prompted by a cruz supporter saying they are capitulating another saying his wife is giving up. perhaps this post should just be for Cruz people only, trump people don't believe simple math.
2 weeks ago I conducted my own analysis of the delegates, upcoming states, who I thought would win those and how the math works. I have heard lots of people saying Cruz is done. I even felt discouraged myself. Tonight I went back and looked at my analysis I did 2 weeks ago to see whats different about it and how its changed. According to what I predicted back then at this point in the race I projected trump to have 2, yes 2 less delegates than he has now. Trump outperformed my estimate by 2 delegates. about as spot on as you can get.
its key to know whats happened in the last 8 days was predicted, it was predicted by myself and others studying this. no surprise.
trump has 994 delegates,
states left to vote delegates awarded and how,
1)indiana, winner take all (WTA) 57 delegates 2) nebraska WTA 36 delegates 3) west virgina direct elected 34 delegates 4) oregon proportional 28 delegates 5) washington, proprotional 44 delegates 6) montana WTA 27 delegates 7) new mexico proportional 24 delegates 8) south dakota WTA 29 delegates 9)new jersey WTA 51 delegates 10) california WTA 172 delegates
total delegates left 502, trump has 994, trump needs 243 to hit 1237 or 48% of the total remaining delegates.
back then I projected Cruz wins in, indiana, probably his toughest state to win, with the exception of california. however kasich has dropped out which helps cruz immensely there. nebraska, and montana, south dakota ALL easy Cruz wins, I split delegates in oregon, washington, and new mexico, giving cruz a few extra in washington state,
now to trump, trump will clean house in new jersey I give him all 51 delegates there. What about west virgina? who the heck knows they elect these people directly and with a complicated system that I don't totally understand. Some say delegates have been recruited to run based on their name alphabetically. if that happens it could give cruz an edge. It looks like all but 9 are unbound, so they can vote as they please even on the first ballot. We also have no idea what happened with Pennsylvania's delegates, some say trump did well with them. in any event I gave the entire pennsylvania delegation to trump in my analysis.
what about california?!?! that decides the whole enchilada, There are some factors there, they don't vote until june, What about kasich?? could kasich be persuaded to exit the race? knowing that if he doesn't trump's win secures the nomination outright? and if he did drop out and Cruz wins california at least there would be a contested convention? who knows california is a long ways out there. The other factor is the Cruz ground game and time to work it. I think this really gives Cruz and edge on the ground with some time to do it. That is how he won Iowa.
so if that analysis holds up and Cruz can win California, that leaves trump with 1085 to about 1130 delegates. the delegate total for cruz or kasich mean NOTHING, the goal is simply keep trump hopefully from getting within 100 delegates. If trump only needs 30 or so he probably could get enough unbound delegates to seal the deal. If trump is 100 or close to that short CRUZ WILL BE THE NOMINEE on the 2 or 3 rd ballot, rumors are 1/3 or more of trump"s current delegates are cruz supporters, If thats true trump will lose hundreds of votes after the first ballot. Cruz currently has won the majority of delegates available in 9 contests, so he has cleared the rule 40 barrier. that is the Cruz path to the nomination.
hurdles? at this point perceptions by people thinking this is over. That is the biggest problem for cruz right now, Some say indiana is a must win, from the simple perception standpoint I agree, a loss to trump there will mean momentum has shifted totally to trump, it will also be a serious blow in the delegate count even if trump didn't secure 1237. Indiana, is the Alamo for Cruz at this point if he gets past that he can pull and easy win in nebraska and pull some momentum back. west virgina, will be a trump win, so again this isn't easy. an indiana win means Cruz lives to fight on. A loss and too many will think its over, even though mathematically it might not be.
the bottom line is nothing has changed from where I thought things would be 2 weeks ago. Cruz has a very very real shot at this, I say again if trump doesn't win on the first ballot Cruz will win the nomination. But then again Cruz could lose next week OR trump could win california and its all over.
I said this is for cruz people only, mathematically I showed CRUZ is NOT eliminated and I explain why. in fact far from it. I give a detailed path how Cruz can still win. Its way more well thought out than just about every other post by the blow hards around here.
After tonight’s primaries Cruz has — 560 delegates after winning one delegate Tuesday. Cruz needs 677 delegates to reach 1,237 delegates. There are only 622 available. It’s over.
Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz is mathematically eliminated from winning the GOP nomination on the first ballot, according to The Associated Press.
I prefer Cruz( although I think Trump has a better shot at beating Helldog) but I think that if Trump wins Indiana(which I think he will) it is all over. Trump is going to win California by double digits and even if the party plays games at the Convention, they dislike Cruz even more than Trump and will steal the nomination for someone else.
now we are getting desperation posts, let it go dude. Cruz will continue of course as he is not the man you think he is and seems to want to cheat his way into the nomination but whatever, more and more people see him for who he really is.
I had high hopes for Cruz (and voted for him in my primary) but as this process has progressed, I'm not as impressed with him. Whenever he talks I feel like I'm being preached to and his campaign tactics have been questionable at best. He's done at this point and the stunt with Carly stinks of desperation.
I don't trust Trump but it looks like that's who will get the nod so come November he has my vote. We need to put this behind us and focus on November. So much rides on every election, but this more so than others.
Objectively, without considering Indiana or West Virginia...
NJ 51 CA 150 of 174 proportional WA,OR,NM 50 proportional
994 + 251
1245
As in Penn, unbound delegates represent the voting block by percentage. There's no secret squirrel delegate society.
Telling Kasich voters to switch only means they stay home, reducing the anti-Trump electorate and increasing Trump's percentage over Cruz. That was piss poor strategy.
If your team is mathematically out of the playoffs attendance tanks at the end of the season. Few are going to wait in line with Trump voters to switch their choice. It's already happening in these later primaries.
There is no surprise surge of Cruz voters or delegates waiting in these last primaries.
It's been over since Trump won the SE red states at the beginning.
Telling Kasich voters to switch only means they stay home, reducing the anti-Trump electorate and increasing Trump's percentage over Cruz. That was piss poor strategy.
If Trump doesn't get to 1237 for the first vote, it goes to a 2nd or 3rd or possibly more votes, and it's up in the air. Each time this happens, delegates start switching around. It's a real possibility for Cruz and/or Trump to pick up, not only each others delegates, but Rubio's and Kasich's delegates.
This isn't the first time something like this happened. There will be a lot of talk about how the system is "Rigged" and people are cheating, but this is the process that we have, and we have to live with it.
If the system is rigged, so far it seems as though it's rigged in Trump's favor. I'm not sure what the actual statistics are, but he's gotten something like 40% of the popular vote, but has gotten something like 50% of the delegates, I think. I'm sure someone will set me straight on this.
Ha ok! I guess I'm just realistic If a meteorite hits the Empire State Building at a 37 degree angle traveling from the west at 187,435 mph Cruz can win
Ha ok! I guess I'm just realistic If a meteorite hits the Empire State Building at a 37 degree angle traveling from the west at 187,435 mph Cruz can win
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
I didn't read the entire thread. Doing so in the past has convinced me that 90% of the population does not know how the process works.
To answer the question, it is mathematically impossible for Cruz to get enough pledged delegates to be the Republican nominee on the first ballot.
Because of the complete and total lack of any semblance of knowledge in the American media, people don't know that Cruz needs to get enough on the first ballot to be able to deny the nomination of Trump and hope that it goes to the second ballot and beyond. You know, like it has been done many times in the past.
Jeez, to listen to the "news people" one would think that a) this is the first time this has occurred; and, b) there is something nefarious afoot.
It is no wonder we are witnessing the decline of our "American" civilization.
I didn't read the entire thread. Doing so in the past has convinced me that 90% of the population does not know how the process works.
To answer the question, it is mathematically impossible for Cruz to get enough pledged delegates to be the Republican nominee on the first ballot.
Because of the complete and total lack of any semblance of knowledge in the American media, people don't know that Cruz needs to get enough on the first ballot to be able to deny the nomination of Trump and hope that it goes to the second ballot and beyond. You know, like it has been done many times in the past.
Jeez, to listen to the "news people" one would think that a) this is the first time this has occurred; and, b) there is something nefarious afoot.
It is no wonder we are witnessing the decline of our "American" civilization.
Maybe you should have read the entire thread.
As Cruz has said many times...Trump may not have enough for the first ballot...and it is not a done deal on what rule changes could happen to release or unbind more anti-Trump votes on the first ballot.
You are exactly right about all those who think this has not happened before.
What difference does it make! The conservative vote has been split by a liberal Trojan horse. Hillary wins and Trump will say how great she is. Unlikely he will make insulting remarks about Hillary's looks.
This country voters again are screwing themselves through their own ignorance. GW
If one more of you goddammed Trump supporters post on this thread, I'm telling Rick.
Dave
I'll be a Trump supporter ONLY if he gets the Republican nomination.
Originally Posted by BOWSINGER
Maybe you should have read the entire thread..............You are exactly right about all those who think this has not happened before.
Maybe. Had I read the whole thread and everybody expressed commonality of interest and knowledge of the process, I would have posted the same as I did. The reason I didn't read the whole thread is two fold. 1) These threads aggravate me to no end; and, 2) I wanted only to respond to the initial thread point/post without looking as though I was debating or responding to someone else who posted herein.
Cruz could win due to a corrupt establishment. The corrupt establishment always backs whoever will play puppet boy.
The people are however at a pivotal point in history and are fed up. Trump numbers have been dumbed and in fact the support Trump really has, has grown into a nation wide monster. This monster includes our Military and law enforcement.
People are at a fed up point in history where not listening to the majority voice could likely get a rope around your neck.
Lots of folks seem to believe this election is the same as all the previous elections when in fact it's not. When's the last time someone won 5 States in a row and every single county in those 5 stated? This is an historical event we are witnessing and the world will likely soon see Trump supporters are part of the non pussified crowd. I believe Trump will lead a revolution if the people's voice is not heard and he will not only have the backing of the majority of the American people, Trump will have the backing of the majority of our Military and law enforcement.
In recent years a number of countries have overthrown there political leaders with relative ease and it was done forcefully and with violence in most instances. The United States is now poised for such an event. The world may likely know in the near future what the non pussified crowd looks like and as large as this crowd is it will likely go down without violence as the pussified crowd will shrink back in terror at the shear number of Trump supporters who show up to the front line backed both by our Military and law enforcement carrying nothing but a rope.
Maybe next week or June or July 18th the nonsense will stop and everyone can get to the task at hand....likely not as the whining will continue insistently till the general is done and then everyone will say shucks wtf happened Wakey wakey before it's too late
Maybe next week or June or July 18th the nonsense will stop and everyone can get to the task at hand....likely not as the whining will continue insistently till the general is done and then everyone will say shucks wtf happened Wakey wakey before it's too late
Kasich is still on the Indiana ballot, and even told people to still vote for him. Sounds like his idea of a "deal" is different from Lyin' Ted's.
The FACT that Ted's been mathmatically eliminated from winning 1237 and getting in on the first ballot will either cause his folks to stay home and weep or jump on another bandwagon. Grandpa Munster is toast.
Hope Travis doesn't see this. My Permanent Record is already a shambles.
Trump supporters all sound and act like in your face Liberals. Nothing like a political campaign to identify Liberals from Conservatives . GW
Not really.
Few Republican partisans can tell the difference between ideology and conservatism.
Which is why most establishment conservatives don't like Trump--he ain't a NeoConservative nor has he spent his time flying under a particular party flag.
Most Americans don't give a rip about political team colors, but it seems like a lot of Americans are agreeing with Trump's proposed, conservative solutions to problems that most Americans are concerned about--problems that neither the Blue Team or the Red Team think are important.
Because of the complete and total lack of any semblance of knowledge in the American media, people don't know that Cruz needs to get enough on the first ballot to be able to deny the nomination of Trump and hope that it goes to the second ballot and beyond. You know, like it has been done many times in the past.
Jeez, to listen to the "news people" one would think that a) this is the first time this has occurred; and, b) there is something nefarious afoot.
It is no wonder we are witnessing the decline of our "American" civilization.
Not really.
200+ years ago, most American citizens were illiterate. The press often barely literate. Citizens nor the media have ever been particularly educated in the nuances of primaries and caucuses.
One of the results of Trump's unique and history making campaign for the nomination is that Americans are being educated in the nomination process. Most of them just don't like what they're seeing.
Not to mention he's taking the Republican Party to school also......
Nah, building a fence and stopping illegal immigrants across the southern border, addressing trade with Mexico and China, prohibiting potential terrorist from entering our country until we can find a sound method of vetting immigrants, those ain't conservative solutions.......
You W4B, are a shining example of how far off the rails the Establishment Republicans are.......
GW
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