Just polling for those of you who dabble in the market.

I say if it drops to a total of 10% from 18,meaning to 16.2, then it is time to start thinking about it. I am usually a DCA/time guy, but the few times I have leveraged the short, it has worked out pretty good. Though, in those times, the drop was much larger than 10%. But since nothing is paying anything nowadays, I am thinking what the heck.

Looking pretty "toppy" to me on the chart. Plus, I'm terrified of getting in when some day all the FED artificial stimulus is gonna go away.

How long have you not been in?

To the OP, the market bumped up 230 yesterday under the belief the answer would be "in" then dropped 610 today for a net of 380 so not startling in my view. I would be surprised to see such a drop as you suggest. We shall see. I am staying positioned as I am.

funny how the MSM doesn't mention the uptick from yesterday,only today's drop.

Relax folks, it is all smoke and mirrors.

The big boys will use this burp as a buying oppurtunity, the little guys will get screwed as usual.

It will be normal in a few days.

I'm buying XOM as it went down today. also bought S&P 1000.

Markets will likely sink more next week and then stabilize for a time. I'm leaving my 401(K) alone.

I sort wonder about the impact on the financial stocks as I don't know if the banks are holding loans in Euros or sterling and how that will sort out exactly like wise it could be an issue for the common man as how are their savings being held/ valued. It would be a bummer to have to pay off your mortgage or car loan if your savings devalued significantly to the currency your debt is valued in or to be holding bonds that are devalued for the currency fluctuation.

17.5x times earning is still pretty high, especially for a low/no growth market that is in year 7 of a bull run.

France, Italy and the Netherlands also want a vote on 'going'.... I think the Italians want a vote on dividing EU north and south!?!?!? Rich to the North, commoners in the South. Europe is going to be a mess for a while. IMHO

Historically, buy!

The Brexit miracle will be a boon to the markets by the end of the year. It will finally show that there can be a light at the end of the tunnel for Europeans, and will create optimism going into Christmas.

Definitely a buying opportunity. Read a bit on Seeking Alpha for ideas

That post should be printed as a textbook for a college econ class.

In a word...Yes.

As noted, I am sitting and as a broke retiree will sit tight near term.

To each his own but about the only stocks I would be buying would be gun stocks.
RGR and SWHC.

I think with the current state of world affairs that the Markets are going to be making some wild swings ,both up and down.

I also think that with the current state of World affairs,the possible election of Hillary with her stance on gun control,with people fearing ,and rightfully so,more attacks by Islam that the future of the gun stocks looks especially Good.

At least that is how I see it ,and putting my money where my mouth is.

Put yours where YOU want to.

So, what are your thoughts about GDX, GDXJ, SIL and GLD? Also,I actually have several of those "evil black guns" that I was going to sell. Think I'll wait till after the election. ;^)

The Fed stopped the stimulus the fall of 2014

Incredible, the only ingredient your "big boys" have over you is knowledge, and the desire to be good at what they do. The average American can have the exact information they have, the information can be purchased just like insurance, some people buy insurance and others just complain how expensive it is.

I agree with 17 average p/e on S&P, there are a few with much lower current and forward p/e's. MET,BG are a few examples but you really have to dig deep for any. For what it's worth the small and mid cap have a lot of lower p/e companies, and many have most or all of their earning come from USA which eliminates the currency head wind. A few examples are CALM, SAFM.

Our domestic banks with oversea presence do have outstanding loans in local currency's, they always have. But they work under the Basil agreement over there, which is very restrictive and they have to have tons of Tier 1 capital backing the loans.
Banks based in USA have never been in better financial shape, never. That's why they are crying, they can't make as much money under Dodd Frank law. But the banks abused their privilege when they used FDIC money to invest for their own profit and lost our money and Obama saved them and did not let them fail. The banks didn't break the law, but they were levered up to 40:1 in some cases(think Merrill Lynch).

Never try to catch a falling knife.

The stuff I read is all over the map

But the analysis I it the most faith in leads one to believe we're historically seeing a shift away from confidence in the public sector aka gov't and that capital will flee to the private sector aka business

The trump phenomena is one example of such ( but for the life of me I wish it'd been someone besides the Donald )

So if you buy into the market ( finding a bottom is a fools errand ime) it might go down even more

But I'd venture on balance over the next decade there will be better returns in the market than most other vehicles out there as capital flees gov't bonds and looks for returns elsewhere

My .02. Worth about half that maybe

And you can certainly find reasoned argument against said analysis

Obama told T. Geitner, specifically, to break up Citi and others (during the Lehmann meltdown) but Timothy balked and we got what we got. Supposedly, U.S. based banks that are too small can't compete with other Int'l banks especially the Chinese who are headed for a hegemony in banking ala the China Development Bank which many G7 nations have already joined. The end result would be our loss as the USD's world reserve currency status.

I bought GNL yesterday morning for 7.95 with the $8 load fee. I am not so sure I did the right thing. It went way up and back down a bit less than what I payed. I think it is a buying opportunity. I did prepare a bit though, I sold my world stock mutual fund on Wednesday and it took a bigger hit than any of my funds except biotech ( FBIOX) I bought GILD on Wed for 82.25 so I am down a bit. I didn't think Brexit would happen so I put the money back in on Thursday to catch the rally. I caught the rally and the nose dive. For Friday , I was down 2.45%, not bad , and for the week I am only down .3% . And yes, Sharecropper, I have a madcap value ETF (VOE ) that has been doing very well, except for yesterday. Also, to the poster that said a good run is coming, I agree. Here is why , there will be some pain in Great Britain but they will emerge stronger. If Germany , and the harder working countries leave it will leave the lazy a zzzz countries to starve. They dont produce anything anyway. The biggest problem is they lazy losers will default on their loans and stick it to the workers. Sound familiar? No?

Right now I am focusing my portfolio on REITs, MLPs, and BDCs with some high yield preferred corporate equities as well as some BDC baby bonds. I am following Analyst Rida Morwa on Seeking Alpha. Looking to take advantage of the current market volatility with high yield dividend equities.

Property REITs.
Business Development Companies.
Oil & Gas master limited partnerships.

King Dollar is the worlds currency for generations to come. No one, in particular the Chinese can not, and will never have the infrastructure, depth nor trust to be worlds reserve currency.
Most of the developed world Country's have no more than a 2-4 money center banks within their borders, small and regional banks are not in their banking system.
Our small and regional banks serve their commutes and or region, for instance your local banks in West Fl. Chinese banks do not compete in any way for lending facilities that your community uses. Insurance companies do but not banks.
Our big Insurance Companies are as big if not bigger than most international banks, that's why our inept president has them under the thumb the same as banks.
He will soon be gone, and I hope he's goes to Europe to further his experiment and leave the greatest country in the history of great nations alone. He is a boni fide hater of the USA I grew up in! World currency my ass, wouldn't that help us.

Sure is nice hearing from people who know ( Sharecropper) I didn't know our ins. Companies were bigger than most banks. I also believe the dollar is king. Remember a few yrs ago Russia and China tried sticking us in the eye with their new currency? Hows that workin for them? Sharecropper, you dont seem to mess with foreign stocks do you ?

anyone, individual or country, that would trust the Chinese with their money rather than a US bank deserves what they get.

Thank you for the kind words hookem. Yes sir I buy stocks outside the US, they represent 65% of public company's globally.
For the past 18 months they have been far more attractive than our multinationals, why, partly because of our stronger dollar and partly because they are behind the US about 2 years in their recovery from 2008-09 meltdown. European multinationals that derive at least 35-70% from US sales have been a big focus. Think MGDDY, Michieln Tires is from France, very, very low debt and a 4.5% dividend that they raise most every year. Selling at a low teen p/e. I buy ADR's not in local currency, you have a small amount of foreign tax you have to pay, but it's a not revelent.

They typically own the largest buildings and the largest ranches here in the western US.

Not enough blood in the streets yet to be sure of a buying opportunity in the U.S. I expect another leg down but Friday was so orderly it's hard to tell.

But if someone thinks it's a good time to get in, get in for a third of what you want to invest. Put in more if it goes lower and seems right. If it goes higher and you miss the chance to put in more, be happy you caught a ride with a third.

Soros said the Pound Sterling would go down 20%, so far only 8% IIRC, but some people are calling him a genius on his call. BS, the bastid is talking his book as usual.

I must say that now retired and fairly out of the growth mode and tending to the preservation mode it is all much easier to manage.

Good advice. Patience is the key, along with a long term horizon.

That money doesn't get to stay there forever. It comes back out LOL.

Actually bad advice, buying near the top of the market, while momentum is downward. Trying to catch a falling knife. Much better/safer is to buy when stock is on an upward trend and has broken into new price territory, on increasing volume.

Pal, now that is funny. So you follow the charting expert do you. A question for you, please show me any technical guru that has out performed the market with his entire portfolio.
You can't , because its pure luck, that's why the professional money managers don't employ the strategy. I wish it worked, it would make my job easier. It works during brief time periods.
You make the bulk of your money in bear markets, you just don't see it for a while.
Also, the most expensive money you can make is short term gains, why take so much risk using technicals when you have to put all your hope in the basket of other people not selling at the wrong time.
Chasing the hot dot is not a strategy , right when you get there, they refinance and you have to start over.
i truly have seen many people come in the business thinking they had figured it out, their charts have been proven fail proof, they were going to become billionaires because they were so smart. They all went bust.
It ain't smarts that wins, it patience. Buy quality, it takes you to town and
can still get you home.
It takes years to build a portfolio you can go to war with, any kind of weather, any kind of tax changes. I really hope you give quality a chance, I've rebuilt many a broken charting portfolio, it can hurt families.
I'm not being ugly to you, just trying to snatch your head from the punch bowl.

Those who know how to do charting analysis, do. The rest make fun of it. But it does take time to learn and isn't for everyone.

It seems like buying and selling is too risky for me. I am new to this but I feel I am better off buying some good stocks, funds and even etf's at what I hope is a dip and go with it. That works best for me it seems. My biggest problem is I have a lot of high dividend stocks and funds in my taxable account . I am trying to find some stocks and funds that are out of favor with low yield to keep my 1099's down. That is hard. Most ETF's and Index funds are tax friendly but most are on the 52 week high. My ROTH and IRA is filled with REIT's and oil stocks.

I am more than pleased to be in a position, retired with a fine pension and company covered health care, to be in a mode of substantial preservation whilst seeking some growth (60/40) that I lined out with my Fidelity advisor with whom we meet quarterly. So far, so good.

I think the DOW will hit 19,125 by Thanksgiving. We will see.

2% growth just doesn't support those numbers IMO. Stocks are expensive, when this bubble blows it's going to be a bloodbath. I'm not saying it won't go higher, but foreword guidance isn't looking great. Lots of very rich rich folks going to cash. Real estate is also getting expensive, I think the top is near. Might be a good time to start buying some gold, because when it pops the federal reserve is going to be printing money in overdrive.

Rubbish. I have been reading such here for many years all the while making money doing nothing.

Hey , does anyone know how to find how much a dividend is going to be on a mutual fund? I have PRBLX and am a bit concerned about a big Dividend cause I have a bunch in my taxable account. Where can I find this info? Thanks in advance , Ihookem,

Hey hookem,
The most reliable way to get the information is to call the Fund Company tomorrow and ask them if they have released the info, if they haven't, just asked them what date they normally let their shareholders know. Just as a reminder, it's not the dividend distribution you want to know about its the capital gains distribution, in particular its the short term capital gain distribution. Short term cap.gains are expensive to harvest.
IMO this year the large cap core funds should not a high cap. gain distribution rate, most likely,not a guarantee.
Hope this is helpful.

Hey thanks Sharecropper. It is nice to get info from someone who I know that knows what he is talking about. So, the short term capital gains are the killer more than the dividends? That makes a lot of sense. They are taxed at a different rate right?

Call the fund in December. They won't have an estimate until then.

http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PRBLX/quote.html

Are Equities In General Or Dividend Stocks In Particular Becoming Expensive?

Sep 24 3:01 PM

I would like to share with you a summary of a report issued on
August 31, 2016 by James Paulsen Ph.D from Wells Fargo Capital
Management about equity valuations. The key points highlighted in
this report are the following:

As the U.S. bull market completes its 90th month making it one of
the longest on record and rising by more than 3.2 times or
annualizing at about 17% per annum, investors are understandably
becoming more and more concerned about valuation risk. Indeed, many
traditional valuation benchmarks suggest the stock market has
become highly if not richly priced. For example, based on the
trailing 12-month earnings per share, the current price-earnings
multiple on the S&P 500 Stock Price Index recently rose to 20.4,
almost 30% above its post-war average.

Comparing valuations to historical trendlines

Although traditional valuation parameters may be flashing yellow,
unconventional trend-line analysis suggest the stock market still
looks reasonable if not attractively priced. It is always useful to
consider alternative thoughts and non-consensus approaches in
assessing important investment questions. To this end, examining
the U.S. stock market relative to its historic trends yields
several unconventional insights regarding both overall stock market
potential and also what investment factors (e.g., growth, value,
capitalization, or price momentum) and sectors may lead the rest of
this bull market.



Why use historical trendlines? U.S. stocks have oscillated about a
stable trend since WWII. To the extent this stable trend remains
persistent, it provides another methodology to judge potential risk
and reward in the stock market. Relative to trend, U.S. stocks have
been extraordinarily cheap three times since 1945:

Immediately after WWII.

In the aftermath of the high inflation 1970s.

After the Great 2008 crisis.

Similarly, stocks appeared richly priced throughout the 1960s and
during much of the time between the mid-1990s until the late-2000s.

Today stocks surprisingly appear reasonably-priced or even cheap
relative to post-war trend despite being one of the longest and
strongest bull markets of the post-war era, as shown in Charts 1
and 2 above, the U.S. stock market is still at worst fairly priced
and even cheap relative to its post-war trendline.

Dividend Stocks Cheap relative to Trendline

Based on the historical trendline chart below, dividend stocks
appear to be trading at multi-year low valuations:



Not all High Dividend stocks are cheap

While high dividend stocks in general appear to be cheap, some are
more expensive than others. This is especially true for Utilities
Stocks which seem to be the most expensive dividend stocks:



Therefore the key to successful high-yield investing is to be
positioned into high-yield sectors which are still cheap. This is
one of the main reasons why the "High Dividend Opportunities"
portfolio is underweight utilities stocks which I personally view
that they are too expensive when looking at most valuation metrics.

Conclusions

The following are the conclusions of the Wells Capital Management report:

While the S&P 500 currently sells at a fairly high 20 times trailing
earnings, it also is about 3% below its post-war trendline average.
In both major previous bull market cycles of the post-war era
(during the 1950s-1960s and again in the 1980s-1990s), the S&P 500
Index ultimately peaked out at least 50% above trendline.

The Total U.S. Stock Market Index (a much broader index which
includes all stocks on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges)
currently trades almost 25% below its post-war trendline making it
cheaper than 78% of the time since WWII.

Many portions of the U.S. stock market remain remarkably cheap
relative to trendline including large cap value stocks, small cap
growth stocks, strong price momentum stocks and even high dividend
yield stocks.

Risk-adverse fundamental factors have surprisingly dominated the
stock market so far in this bull market. This is a rather odd
result after a relatively long and strong bull market probably
which reflects the odd "fear-based economic recovery" experienced
since the Great 2008 crisis. Consequently, relative to their
respective historic trends, current valuations favor overweighting
"risk-on factors". What Wells Capital Management means by this is
that stocks which carry more risk are much more undervalued than
conservative stocks. This is also true of High Yield stocks.

The most important thing to note is that the equity markets have
just broken out the upside, something which rarely happens. Our
plan is to remain fully invested to maximize our profits from this
strong up-trend.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rida Morwa
Research analyst, REITs, energy, Dividend income for retirees

I am a former Investment and Commercial Banker with over 30 years experience in the field. I have been advising both individuals and institutional clients on high-yield investment strategies since 1991. As author of “High Dividend Opportunities”, a premium subscription service at Seeking Alpha, my objective is to bring investors the most profitable and newest high dividend ideas, with special focus on the Energy sector. The service includes an actively managed model Portfolio targeting an overall dividend yield of 6-9% in addition to long-term capital gains. My research aims to maximize returns by identifying undervalued securities in the High Yield space.

In addition to being a Certified Public Accountant CPA from the State of Arizona, I hold a BS Degree from Indiana University, Bloomington, and a Masters degree from Thunderbird School of Global Management (Arizona). I am also a Certified Mortgage Advisor CEMAP, a UK certification. My Research and Articles have been featured on Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, ETFdailynews, and on FXEmpire.

For more information on how to subscribe to “High Dividend Opportunities” and gain exclusive access to the portfolio, live alerts and market commentaries, check the post: Introduction to “High Dividend Opportunities” on my Instablog or just email me at [email protected] .

I have put most of my savings in a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds since 1983.

I was not smart enough to "time" the market.
So I didn't try yo do that. I have done quite well, buying on a regular basis, re balancing once a year, and not trying to chase the next best thing.

Distribution

Dividend History Per Share
Date Amount Reinvestment Price
6/30/16 $0.0856 $37.99
3/31/16 $0.1273 $37.80
12/30/15 $0.4988 $37.38
9/30/15 $0.1167 $38.32

Capital Gains History Per Share
Date Amount Reinvestment Price
11/24/15 $2.7547 $38.35
11/25/14 $0.6746 $40.72
11/22/13 $1.8726 $35.98

That's right hookem, it's one of the most expensive way to make money. The tax rate is much higher than long term gains, and the qualified dividend tax rate (which is the type most large cap core funds pay) is 20-25% in most cases. I really must say though, Mutual Funds are designed as a long term investment type vehicle. And buying and selling based on cap. gain distribution is not advisable to my clients, large or small alike. Why, because I would much rather reinvest the cap gain distribution and accumulate shares over the long term. Why do more shares matter, because all future distributions of any type are paid on a per share basis, so more shares, more distribution. Now we could get in the weeds and discuss how some funds have a higher annual portfolio turn over rate than others, and it's a valid discussion in some cases. But in the limited scope of large cap core funds, most are managed with a annual turn over rate in the 20% range, and that is well within reason.

Thanks Sharecropper, I could just keep the fund. I like the fund except for the .9% expense ratio . I think I might have been better off putting it in the S&P 500 Fidelity fund but I split the money up into the PRBLX and the FUSVX fund. They have returned almost the exact same amount to money. I put half in the PRBLX on FEB,10. 2016. PRBLX did really well during the 08-09 downturn and the same manger is still there. Back in Feb. it was a rational concern we were going to see a big downturn again so I went with that fund cause it was managed well in that time. Also, Sharecropper, do you think managed mutual funds are worth it compared to index funds and ETF's? They seem to have a less tax and most of my money is on taxable accounts.

Having managed my own funds for 30 years, upon retirement a year ago past June, I decided I wanted to semi-retire from managing my funds. Fidelity has always been my vehicle. So I went with a mix of a managed (70%) and non-managed (30%) funds at the beginning of the year with the view of letting it play out for the year then doing an analysis against an indexed package with a similar split of equities (US and foreign) and bonds. I am thinking, when the dust settles, I will go back non-managed with a split of FSTVX, FTIPX and FSITX and leave myself a chunk "play" with.

Slowly in and slowly out ... that's the key.

Time IN the market is way more important than TIMING in the market. No doubt about that.

Folks here have no idea of who I am and that is a very good thing. Trust me or don't trust me; it makes no difference. I've totally guided my own investments for 50+ years with absolutely no managed funds ... ever.

All above is absolutely true.

kd

Financial stocks spark market gains

Sep 30 2016, 16:25 ET |
By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

All three major indexes tallied their strongest quarterly gains since Q4 2015, with the Nasdaq rallying 9.7%, the S&P rising 3.3% and the Dow adding 2.1%.Today's banking sector rally (+1.4%) did not stop Wells Fargo from posting another loss and a fresh low for the year, capping a 12.5% loss for the month.Energy stocks (+1.3%) rose, outpacing U.S. crude oil, which rose 0.8% to $48.11/bbl.Quarter-end flows resulted in increased participation, as more than 1.2B shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.Today's rally in stocks lured some money out of the Treasury market, sending the 10-year yield higher by 4 bps to 1.60%.

And now financials are down, go figure. . There is no rhyme or reason for the way the market goes. I thought we would be on a decent run today , aftr Fridays gains . Oh well , maybe tuesday.

How long or short term is your view?

My adviser is telling me he thinks we will see the market going sideways for a couple of weeks. He says now is the time to be fully invested in equities because he sees a strong finish in the 4th quarter. He's fully invested and so am I. . .Don't miss it.

In addition to having several years spending cash set aside, I have a taxable account in which I've converted considerable equities into cash and moved other funds into less volatile mutual funds (more conservative). The market has been rather frothy over the past 6 months and I suspect it will correct. Then, I'll move the cash back into equities.

I have a large holding of sony that I have been on the verge of selling for a couple weeks. It recently hit a 5 or 6 year high and has pulled back slightly, bouncing back and forth within 5% of the high. I don't know whether it will pull a bit higher or drop back but I doubt it will stay where it is.
I had a modest holding and after the tsunami in 2011 the bottom fell out. I doubled down when it hit $18/share....it kept falling and bottomed out around $9. When it got back to $10 I doubled down again. That was about 3.5 years ago. It has jumped all over the place since then but I've mostly been in the green. Don't want to fool with it anymore. Don't want to be too greedy and don't want to sell too soon.

My adviser says not to hold more than 3% in any single stock FWIW.

Wall Street Journal article:
"Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter -
Analysts have been cutting estimates for U.S. earnings, after earlier projecting a return to growth during the third quarter:

see:http://www.wsj.com/articles/profit-slump-for-s-p-500-heads-for-a-sixth-straight-quarter-1474836341

In one article I read today (New York Times), economists are predicting another downturn in profits for the 4th quarter. This will certainty influence equities prices.

Here is my so far so good successful portfolio:

AMZA
APTS
BIT
EDI
EPD
GEL
GLOP
HQH
JPEP
OFS
PSE
AINV
JPEP
OFS
PSEC
SEP
STNG
SUN
SXL
WNR
AINV
ARI
FSC
RQI
TPVG
CLDT
CEQP
FULLL
RFTA
BDCL
CEFL
LMLP
MLPQ
SMHD
BIZD
LADR
F AGIX
FOCKX
JAAGX
ODVYX
FUSVX
VDIGX
FLPKX
PRNHX
FWWFX
FDIKX
FSEVX

Here is a recent news letter from my adviser:

Summary
Oct 01 11:24 AM

- Market Outlook: October 1, 2016. The technical picture looks bullish.

- The Current Market Concerns: presidential election, situation with Deutsche Bank, and future rate hikes, are overblown.

- The Case for a continued Bull Market.

- The best of the year 2016 is yet to come. Remaining fully invested is likely to pay-off handsomely.

Market Update

With the closing bell yesterday, we have officially wrapped up the 3rd quarter and we are now heading into a new earnings season. Finally the month of September, which has historically been the most volatile month of the year, is behind us and we can start looking forward for the 4 th quarter which has historically been the best quarter for the stock markets. On average the Dow index gained in the fourth quarter 2.7% versus a 1.6% average for the other three quarters.

The bulls have regained control of the markets, with the S&P 500 index currently standing above both its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, which looks very bullish:



The long-term chart trend remains strongly to the upside and it looks like the S&P 500 index is ready to challenge again its all-time high of 2193.

Short-term trading range for the S&P 500 Index

To the upside: As stated above, the next target for the S&P 500 is the 2193 level. If we break above it, we should go much higher.
To the downside: The 2140 level is the first level of support. I view any short-term pullback as a buying opportunity.
The Year 2016 Has Defied All Odds

I have been advocating to be fully invested in the equity markets since the beginning of 2016. As most of you know, I am constantly monitoring and evaluating economic conditions and forces that could affect the markets, in additional to the technical trends for the major equity indexes. Based on my analysis, I have been explaining to HDO members since the beginning of the year why the markets in 2016 are likely to see new highs. Despite all the bearish analysis and reports published on Seeking Alpha and elsewhere about equities since April 2016; they have been all dead wrong. The markets have reached all-time market highs this year, and those who remained fully invested have achieved significant gains. My analysis leads me to believe that the bull market is set to continue and that the full potential of equities in 2016 is yet to be seen. Historically, the month of September has brought a 1% drop in the S&P 500; indeed this year, it defied all odds with the S&P 500 index ending up flat for the month. A combination of factors, including a bullish breakout of the markets, and outperformance of all major indexes leads me to believe that the best is yet to come.

Current Market Concerns Are Overblown

Currently, investors are faced with two main concerns, the U.S. Presidential elections and the troubles at the German Bank Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB). Let us have a closer look at both concerns:

The situation with Deutsche Bank: Deutsche Bank has been facing a crisis since the announcement of excessive fines by the U.S. Department of Justice. It is worth to note that the Tier 1 Capital of the bank is currently more than double since the 2007 financial crisis and therefore has stronger capital ratios and a more solid base. Furthermore, European money markets liquidity is high, which is quite a different scenario from the one we witnessed during the Lehman melt-down. DB has access to huge amounts of market and central bank liquidity for funding, and has enough capital available to maintain full operations. Finally, Germany is a rich nation which is unlikely to let one of their banks go under. There are already talks that the government may step in to help. Bottom line, I am not really concerned about the situation here.

The situation with the U.S. Presidential elections: This time around the presidential elections have broken with precedent. This has been the most negative race in recent history resulting in many investors sitting on the sidelines until after the election. All the negative focus will soon fade with positive news about economic plans by both parties to increase infrastructure spending which will be great for the U.S. economy. So I would expect that investors will be relieved once a new president is appointed and would result in more cash to flow into equities.

Future Interest Rate Hikes

There is a prevalent notion that the Fed is interlinked with the well-being of other central banks' fiscal operations that are fully engaged in elevated levels of quantitative easing. Taking into account a strong dollar, slow economic growth and quantitative easing, this will keep U.S. interest rates at multi-year lows for a long time, even after the expected rate hike by 0.25% in December. In her latest speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated some important notes about the U.S. economy, real estate and the equity markets:

She is pleased with the way the U.S. economy is growing.
She does not think that equity or real estate prices are currently overvalued.

Most importantly, the Fed will remain data dependent before deciding on future rate hikes and that future rate hikes will be slow and gradual, meaning that even if the Fed increases interest rates in December, we may not see another rate hike for a long time.
The Fed has little room for further rate hikes in the future which is great news for the equity markets in general, and for high dividend stocks in particular. Furthermore, we should also note that history has shown that the initial phases of rate increases do not jeopardize the long term market uptrend. With the current slow economic recovery, interest rates will go up much slower than in past cycles.

The Case for a Continued Bull Market

Bull markets do not die from old age, but from excess. HDO members should focus less on short-term price movement, and keep a long-term view for their investment positions. In the past few months, the markets have clearly broken out to the upside, something which rarely happens. Based on my experience, this is very bullish. What makes me even more optimistic about the equity markets is that there are too many bears around while large banks and financial institutions are still recommending to under-weight equities. This usually results in retail investors missing out on the current rally and tend to start investing when it is too late. I have explained in details my arguments about why I believe that the markets will soon reach new highs and that any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. I recommend that new HDO members or those who did not get a chance to read my outlook on the markets to refer to the following 2 recent Premium Articles which were exclusively posted to HDO members:

1- Update on September 10: High Dividend Stocks Will Continue To Outperform - Definitely Not The Time To Sell

2- Update on August 29, 2016: Why The Markets Are Likely To Keep Going Higher

I remain optimistic about the outlook of equities in general and high-dividend stocks in particular, and I believe that we will see renewed markets' strength and hopefully new highs in the next few months. While the secular bull market is set to continue, it is best to remain fully invested for the time being and maximize profits from the opportunities offered in the current environment. What I mean by fully invested, is that having a full position in our "Top Buy" list equivalent to 85% to 90% of one's overall portfolio and keep a 10% to 15% cash position. Please keep in mind: As long-term investors, confidence in the stocks/securities we hold and patience are key to our success.

Why keep a 10% to 15% cash position?

There are 2 good reasons to keep a 10% to 15% cash position:

While we are currently experiencing a strong bull market, market corrections (or large pullbacks) tend to happen on average once a year. During a market correction, the pullback tends to be steep and swift, meaning that the markets decline quickly but do not last very long (average of 4 months). They tend to be followed by a quick market recovery. On average it takes also 4 months for the markets to go back to the same level before the correction has started. Corrections are healthy and allow the markets to consolidate in order to climb higher. If I see signs of a "market correction", my plan is to propose to members the use of the 10% to 15% cash position to buy some insurance against a market pullback by using inverse Exchange Traded Funds such as the inverse ETF Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPXS). Due to the leveraged nature of SPXS (3 times leveraged), a 10% position in SPXS provides a 30% protection to the overall portfolio, and a 15% position provides a 45% protection to the overall portfolio.

The second reason: For HDO members who do not wish to invest in leveraged ETFs, they can use the funds to average down their positions in case of a temporary pullback.

The next Key Event to watch out for next Friday is the Unemployment Rate Report. This is the most important report that will be released by the government next week. The Labor Department will announce the official unemployment rate. We will see what the numbers mean for business nationwide.

That's all easy chitt. When to pull out is tough, ever, -10%, -20% or 30% ? Are you 30, 40, 50, 60 or 70? It is numbing to see how many are broke and have refused the market. Numbing...

That is generally sound advice.

Several years ago I switched from smaller more diversified holdings to larger targeted holdings, 20%+. Watching very closely and timing trades just right. It has paid off very well.

Oranhge Okie, I wish I had an advisor like yours. Mine was bad news, so bad I went on my own and did much better. Also, EDM, my time frame is about 10 yrs. I am 53. I hope to not use my money for ten more yrs.

I'm 51, I'm 100% stocks, and mostly aggressive growth mutual funds. If I live to 85, my money has to work for at least another 34 years, and I can't afford to let my money retire when I do. I might start putting SOME money in less volatile investments in about 15 years, but the vast majority needs to work, and work hard, while I play with the great-grand kids.....

Buy now

And, most importantly, HOLD!

Market has pulled back nicely today and has presented a buying chance at reduced price.

It hasn't pulled back. The market is at all time highs and looks weak. Doesn't seem a good time to buy at all.

Gold and silver has taken a significant hit. This could be the time to pay close attention to both.

I was a very high risk investor, managing my own funds, looking at them twice daily from age 23 to 53 when I retired June 2014. I have now gone to a 60/40 equities/bond split with equities 40/20 domestic/foreign. I play with ~$600k as my toy stuff diving in and out of the earlier high risk stuff. Currently this is in Fidelity Select Technology (FSPTX). I am very comfortable with where I have settled in retirement.

Until there is a longer term case to be made for a weakening dollar then gold/silver should be under pressure. There is a fairly easy case to be made for a strengthening dollar especially if Trump can make it in, but there are other reasons for it to be strengthening.

If you believe the US Dollar is in a long term trend upward, and it certainly looks that way to me. The base case to begin working with is, what currency do you want it to work against. Japan, Euro, Pound etc..
For me the Euro is easy, they have many high quality multi-national to chose from. I've never quite got my head around Japan, their tax code is weird to me.
The easiest way to win this bet, but you have to do substantial home work, is to buy US Small Caps. Why, because many only sell in USA and that means no currency risk, find those with low debt.

____ DJIA ETF DIA -0.44%
____S&P 500 ETF SPY -0.49%
____Nasdaq ETF QQQ -0.14%

[img]http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.W...;height=444&width=579&mocktick=1[/img]

the actual compound rate of return of the S&P 500 since the year 2000 is actually a negative number when inflation is factored in. That means if you took 100k and invested it in the stock market and the gain was based on the S&P 500 you would have about 130 something k in 16 years in the market. that is what all the mutual funds and all the crap never tells you. The problem is if a stock or mutual fund loses half its value it has to have a 100% increase to make up for the 50% decrease. that is how they cook the books and make something look better than it is.

contrary to that if you simply bought a house in my area at fair market rate, it would be worth double its 2000 sales price. it would also be providing a healthy dividend. and example I ran was a 256% increase over that time.

I want to talk to someone who made a fortune in mutual funds because I don't believe they exist. real estate creates rich people.

I'll take my 7%-8% dividend (rent) plus the property valuation over paper stock money any day. Aside from the 2008-2011 downturn property is a good log term investment done properly.

Besides, it's easier protect physical assets than a piece of paper.

You keep believing and do what you do. I wish you well. I am a happily retired 54 year old dumbazz that was screwed by the market...

Don't confuse a bull market with brains!
The ONLY decade real estate EVER won over Dow stocks was the 1970's.
And I have never, ever owned any type of index fund in my life.
My actual, authenticated rate of return beginning 1/1/2001 is 13.85% annually. My documented cash flow has grown 11.66% annually, that's a growth of over 400%, inflation has gone up 32.3% in the same time frame.
You had to pay, Federal taxes on income at a higher rate, up keep on your property and local propert tax.
I own 3 types of rental property, commercial, residential and farm ground. Never, even on a rolling 5 year cycle has any out performed my equity holdings. And my commercial properties are leased on a Triple net lease basis.
I am not arguing here, if real estate, gold/silver, cattle or whatever it is grew my assets at a consistent rate better than the capital markets I would over weight that sector. The math simply is not in you corner unless you limit the scope to the 1970's. Don't get mad, make yourself more competitive.

Dow and NASDAQ have returned 5% during that time, so your way better than the indexes.

ok maybe your the guy I have been looking for that I say doesn't exist. what in the world equity funding did you have? here is the calculator I got my info from S&P calculator compound actual rate of return.

another thing you might not be factoring in, you have to pay income taxes on those equity gains. real estate can be 1031 exchanged for more expensive property. basically the seed you have increased by, (looks like you have something to do with farming) is siphoned off to the government with stocks, real estate not only can you keep all the new seed but you can use it all for other property PLUS you can depreciate things as well.

maybe you have something really figured out, PM me with details seriously I would like to know.

Cumminscowboy, Stromin and Sharecropper , you are all right. The thing is, Sharecropper know what he is doing in stocks, the other two know real-estate . Peter Lynch said, " buy what you know. My dad did extremely well in rental houses in the far suburbs west of Milwaukee. He bought 1 ac. lots for $4000 and built some nice houses on them. At 84 he still refuses to sell them. But he was a carpenter , and could frame houses in a few weeks, have them done in 6 months. We would live in them, then build another and rent out the one we moved out of. I hate the rental life , so I took the money and bought REITS when several house bids fell through. I would rather have a house I can see with my eyes. I am making the same money as the rental property with the same amount of money. I dont get calls of whining people being short on rent. Dad just put 4k into a roof too. Alhtough , I am getting hammered in real-estate the last 2 weeks, I think it will come back, even though AGNC cut div. by 10%. I just get dividends reinvested and I sleep at night. I am not sure I am better off with the REITS or renting a house but the REIT is easier.

Clearly and logically folks go about investing in what they are comfortable with and there really is zero wrong with that other than the folks that put money in a bank. In fact, it is more than logical. The key is, those of us doing so are planning well for our future so we can enjoy retirement that we so deservedly worked for. There is no "one answer".

Well , I found my old post! . Two weeks ago this was looking like a pipe dream. As of now I am 102 points shy of my guess. I doubt it will go up 102 point tomorrow but who knows, maybe Wacko Street will feel the new spirit of making America great again. Happy Thanksgiving !!!!

MAGA!!!

Is it time to start buying muni bonds yet? I bought some 2 weeks ago and quickly found out I bough on a dead cat bounce. Is it too earl yet for Muni bonds?

Ok, another question. I have a stock I've had for 1 1/2 yrs. I get quarterly dividends . What dividends are qualified ? Are all the div. given in less than a yr qualified since I had it 1/5 yrs? I dont understand qualified div.

Sell, sell, sell. I have been reading the demise of the NYSE for years here. Now folks are hopeful with Trumps win...

Now is not the time to buy munis. As interest rates rise 1% the price of a muni can drop 10%. The FED has already promised three more interest rate hikes in 2017.

An alternative to individual munis are these two CEFs - NID and MTT. They won't be adversely affected by rising interest rates.

Qualified means tax deferred as in an IRA or a 401(K). It is an IRS "qualified" investment account.

Not in this instance. There are qualified and non qualified dividends that you can receive from stocks outside of an IRA or any retirement plan. Qualified dividends receive a special reduced tax rate.

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch08.html

I invested in powder and primers

This is in a taxable account, I forgot to mention. Thanks, I read all over on the web but can't seem to find much of an answer from Yahoo, finance, Investopedia ETC. Also, if you invested in powder and primers the last few years, you gains are 0% as of now. Powder and primers most likely went down and most likely will continue to do so. SWHC ( Smith& Wesson ) stock went from 30 bucks to 21. Americans are tapped out on guns, primers and powder, although, nothing wrong with being stocked up , however , you won't see capital gains form them, just a good time using them.

The link above from the IRS will explain it.

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch08.html

Longbob, It is no wonder we need a total revamp of the tax code. A bunch of dicck head made those laws. Why not just say, if ya have the stock 1 yr and 1 day, the div. are qualified. It seems 61 days before the 120 days before the ex div. date makes them qualified ( something like that ) It seems after 6 months or so , they are qualified. Ya need to be some politician to understand something that should be so simple.

I am not wealthy. I do, however, live in a region in which wealthy people abound.

The trend is that those who have BIG money either inherited it or own/run their own business. Its a pretty high correlation.

Those who are wealthy or comfortable (upper middle but not big money ) made most of their cake buying real estate and flipping up with the market.


Yes, everyone and their brother has funds and stocks, but real estate does seem to be the greater wealth creator.

The mid-late 90's were the anomoly, where idiots (truly, many idiots) made stupid money buyer ticker symbols for comanies they never heard of or even know anything about.

... more specific to the thread topic, back in the fall I was under the impression that the market was toppish, and made a few moves accordingly.

I kept money in 2 funds that were category specific and very successful (that I have owned since Bush 1 was in office).

The rest, including most of my index funds, were sold and moved to money market, figuring that the late Obama era/ early POTUS 45 era would bring us a BIG correction. I thought interest rates would continue to climb up, and the real inflation that has been here would couple with reportable inflation.

In short, I was wrong, and missed a decent runnup since approx early october on those index funds I sold.

Durint this time I kept my 'play' money in things that are, truth be told, more gamble than investing. (pot stocks, lithium stocks, a depressed gold stock.. yada yada). these have done OK, but that probably doesnt compensate for the $ I have sitting in cash waiting for the correction that didnt come.

Yet.

I agree with what you said in your entire post, but the part I bolded is absolute truth. It really isn't that complicated for you as the investor if you have your shares held with most any brokerage firms. The 1099 DIVs produced by the brokerage firms since the inception of the law separate out the qualified dividend amounts for you on the filing.

Here is the catch. Until last year, the brokerage firms had to continually send out corrected 1099s because the companies that paid the dividends would make errors in their reporting to the firms. Most of the brokerage firms would delay sending out their 1099s until March 15th to help mitigate the clients refiling their taxes. The Treasury department allowed them to wait on sending them.

I wouldn't sweat it if I were you in figuring out what is what because it should be separated out on your 1099.

With Trump they will drop...

that will play right into my dollar cost averaging strategy!

Sycamore

Found this little nugget perusing a thread on ex div dates


"The primary requirements for qualified dividends are they be issued by qualified U.S. or foreign corporations and meet a holding period requirement. For a dividend payment to be considered qualified, you must have owned the underlying stock for a minimum of 60 days within the 121-day period beginning 60 days before the ex-dividend date."

It actually makes quite a bit of sense, the intent is too not reward speculators who buy the stock for dividend rights and promptly dump it after the ex dividend date.

It seems that qualified div. only need the stock held for about 2 months if bought 60 days before the ex div. date. That is not very long. It may be 61 days , but if you miss the 60 day div date requirement you may have to wait 60 days plus 120 days. That would only be 5 months or so. , , , I think. I will find out soon through Fidelity when the 1099's come out.

What's the old wife's tale ? "Whatever the market does in the 1st week of January, so goes the year."

SPY end of 1st week of January:

2013 - 145
2014 - 182
2015 - 200
2016 - 191
2017 - 227

What constitutes a “qualified” dividend? Most dividends paid by domestic companies are qualified. And many dividends paid by foreign companies also qualify for the preferred tax rate. However, distributions paid by real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, and other similar “pass-through” entities may not qualify for favored tax status. Also, dividends that are paid on shares that are not held at least 61 days in the 121-day period surrounding the ex-dividend date are not “qualified” dividends.

CLF...

Keep in mind that the dividends are not actually paid on the ex-dividend date...the person who holds the stock on that date will have the right to receive the dividends when they are paid, whether or not they still hold the stock, which could be as much as a year later. Also, the stock price is adjusted (reduced) to account for the dividend. Hence, dividends are not free money, as some seem to think.

Anyone have any closed end funds? Their div. seem very good.

https://research.economyandmarkets.com/X195T1AA?gclid=COvR-ZiK99ECFdG4wAodWUcIeg

Picking over the XLI holdings could be a place to start.

Actually you have to have held the stock at the close, the day before the ex-div day, to receive the dividend.

Hookem . . . I have several CEFs. They are all doing quite well. I don't pick them myself, though. I use my advisor, who is the butt of a few jokes on here from investing ignorant people.


BTW, yesterday was another one of my biggest portfolio gains ever . . . I'm almost getting tired of winning so much!



I said "almost."

Wanted to share a market update, with those who are interested, written by my financial adviser Rida Morwa on Seeking Alpha LINK I have made alot of money following his advice over the past year. I'm just sharing the wealth. Like they say, "when the student is ready, the master will come." If Rida worked for a big brokerage house he would be advising multi-millionaires and institutional investors, charging high fees.



HDO: Market Update - Feb 9, 2017

Feb. 9, 2017 8:26 AM ET•

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Dear HDO Members,

The markets continue to look resilient, despite difficulties for the bulls to drive the S&P 500 above the 2300 level. The reason for this is that the markets are technically overstretched, especially the Nasdaq index which is resulting in difficulties for the markets to advance.

But I see many reasons why the markets will continue to hold amazingly well. We should remember that when you get near territory never seen before, like the Dow index at the 20,000 level or S&P index at the 2300, these are psychological resistance levels and could be seen as a potential top where a battle between the bulls and the bears takes place - with sell programs in place that must be topped by buy programs and orders. Despite this, the bulls have been stepping back in at each pullback which looks bullish.

During the past week, the VIX volatility index (or "fear index") is showing that fear among investors remains much closer to all-time lows. So in spite of everything that has occurred since the November election traders remain confident the markets can go higher.

The trading range of the S&P index remains extremely tight:

To the upside: The 2300 level is the first level of resistance for the S&P 500 index.

To the downside: There is plenty of support all the way down to the 2275 level.

The equity markets are in effect in a consolidation mode. Once the bulls can finally clear that 2300 level that could garner some new excitement, the markets are likely to continue to grind their way up. The medium term target for the S&P 500 is the 2350 level.

HDO members should note that we can see price volatility in the process, and should not be worried about it.

Outlook for the Next 3 Months

While I am bullish on equities in 2017, the way up is by no means going to be a straight line. My outlook over the next 3 months is as follows:

In the near-term, the bulls are likely to continue to slowly drive the markets higher. Their next target for the S&P 500 is the 2350 level.

The drive higher will be followed by a consolidation period and we are likely to see a pullback over the next two months which will serve to rebuild the market's internal energy and extend the rally.

Important note to our Members: Do not bet on any large pullback! The maximum pullback in my opinion will take down the S&P 500 index down to the 2200 level, which is about 4% lower from here, and this is a pessimistic scenario. If such a pullback happens, it will be a temporary pullback and the recovery should be swift.

I am continuously monitoring the markets, and if there is a change in the economic outlook, I will inform members to take appropriate action accordingly.

===

Best course of action for HDO Members

For those fully invested, I advise to remain so.

For those who wish to put new money at work, below is the best strategy to follow.

Best Strategy for putting new money at work

Buy 50% of your intended target position in the securities tagged as "Top Buy" at the current market prices, and take into account the "Buy Under" prices. The 19 "Must Own" stocks and securities for the year 2017 is a good place to start, in addition to all other securities in our "Core Portfolio" and "Optional List" that are tagged as "Top Buys."

Wait until mid April to fill the remaining 50%, to take advantage of a general pullback, if we see one.

This way, members can average down their price in case we see a pullback.

Why not wait for a pullback to start buying?

First, there is no guarantee that we will see any significant market pullback. Trying to time the markets is a bad investment strategy and often results in "missed opportunities."

Second, as the markets go higher, the "moving averages" of the stock markets also move higher; so when a pullback happens from a higher level, it will be less severe for those who are already invested.
So it is best to build a 50% position at the current levels.

Bottom Line

The current bull market has still a long way to go. It is not too late to join the current market rally. Sitting on the sidelines because prices are high and contemplate equities move higher, or wait for the next recession, could be very costly. The main point to note here is that there will be ups and downs during 2017, but one should keep in mind that the year is likely to be excellent for equities. Being patient, having a long-term view, and not worry about daily stock fluctuations are key. In the meantime, we keep collecting hefty dividends.

Just a look back since the beginning of 2017

These threads are the most comical here on the 'fire. I am sure if I wasn't such a GAF person I could search for the must sellers at 15K or 10k...

Dollar cost averaging. As long as you have time, keep plugging a little at a time. When I started in the market we were wondering if it would ever pass 2,400.......

My only reason for posting this old thread is to encourage those who need to prepare for their future retirement to take advantage of this once in a hundred years opportunity to cash in on this bull market. The dollar cost averaging recommendation is something anyone can do. It doesn't make any difference how much you start with, just get started and don't miss this. Call Fidelity (or any of the the other big brokers) and talk to someone about your options. This thing is going to be big.