...or how sow few cost us so much and provide so little

Nothing like a good long walk with the dog to think things through.

You here about people migrating to Alaska just to sponge off the government. I’m sure most if not everyone knows or is acquainted with at least one family that seems to make most if not all of it’s income from government services and maybe some under the table work for cash. Anecdotally people say maybe we should get rid of the PFD so these people will leave. The real question is, exactly how much do these people cost us. Let’s give it a go. Let’s say there are 5000 families that fall into this category. I don’t think that’s an unrealistic number, if one member of that family should be in the work force, and our work force is say 150000 people, that makes 1/3% of the workforce. Let’s further say each of these families has three school aged children. Let’s look at one of these families costs the state per year, and we’re not even going to look at how much of our government workforce exists to cater to these people:

$20,000 per student $60,000 for three children
$1000/month for food $12,000 food
$1000/month for medical $12,000 medical
$1000/month housing $12,000 housing

and let’s say between domestic violence, dui, drugs, parole violation and/or child protective services one member of this family tangles with the legal system per year and between police, prosecutors, defense, counselors and judges one of those encounters is going to cost the state and easy $25,000 per occurrence.

So, that means we’re spending $121,000 per year on these families, or $605,000,000. Yup, over a cool ½ billion on these people, not to mention the $50,000,000 they collected in PFD’s last year.

So, while the $1.3 billion PFD payout won’t bridge the budget gab, if doing away with it would cut over ½ billion in social services, if not double that, perhaps we really need to look into how much the PFD really costs us. Not to mention to federal government takes in a significant chunk of the PFD in income taxes.

I’ll gladly give up ~$1000-1500 after federal income taxes, to shave a billion off state spending.

How will you ensure that those people actually leave?

If people who have not a darn thing manage to migrate from South America, SE Asia, Africa, the Middle East etc, then I'm sure when the AK pastures are no longer green with PFD $'s, our near do wells will manage to find the where with all to head south.

As it is we're going to be looking at a migration of professionals that has taken since the mid 80's to build up the state should the government get stupid on taxes combined with a souring economy.

The state should be looking at doing what it can to retain the hard working people of the state and culling those that won't, but I fear they'll take the opposite tact.

I highly doubt anyone moved to alaska because of the PFD.

But if getting rid of it would be a driving force for many to leave please take it. But I doubt anyone would leave because of such...

I have no doubt that the PFD paid a major role in attracting immigrants to Alaska......along with minimal taxes and a lucrative social services program......I'm surrounded by em!

If giving up the PFD would drive away a meaningful number of freeloader's, I'd give up mine in a heartbeat! We likely have the most ample public bosom in the entire country, and it needs to dry up. In addition to immigrants, and low life trash that move up from the states, there are more than a few very well off folks who suckle. They have their personal wealth hidden in corporations, LLC's, etc...and then have their kids enrolled in things like Denali Kid Care, and then go play on their(I mean their companies ) boats, snow machines, wheelers.. They are some of the lowest of the lowlifes, IMO.

Jeff

In 2014 670,000 applications were deemed valid and paid @ $1884 for a total dividend payout of $1.2 billion dollars.

http://pfd.alaska.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=MXgVzMjdc_o%3d&tabid=506&portalid=6&mid=6428

I certainly think it would be worthwhile to reduce the amount significantly and apply the savings to education. (I'm thinking it might be useful on more than one level to do that. In the unorganized areas it would give everyone some direct buy-in. Urban businesses that are already taxed significantly would undoubtedly feel a significant pinch in annual dividend sales and might appreciate a break on school tax levies, not to mention residential tax payers.)

I would certainly support the idea of cutting the PFD back significantly. I don't believe it would be an easy sell to rural folks who already have a hard time making ends meet. IF - if there was some way to take advantage of the lower fuel prices common in many parts right now, and pass those lower costs on to the rural areas in exchange for lost or reduced dividends, I think that might be palatable. It makes no sense to keep soaking the small rural places just because people will pay whatever the dealers can get.

Papa Pilgrim and the wolverine clan (Alaska Bush people) are certainly not the only ones who have come to Alaska lured by PFD's. I've known a fair number of families where the dad did cash under the table jobs, WIC paid for their food, Denali kid care covered medical, they were collecting thousands from their kids being enrolled in home school programs and they'd use their PFD's for annual trips to Hawaii.

I'm all for helping those who can't help themselves, but I'd venture to guess the majority of the folks taking public services won't help themselves rather than can't help themselves.

Amen!

Jeff

+ditto

It almost sounds like there are three Alaskas in a sense. There are the urban folks (of all types) who can and will find productive means of sustenance. Then there are those who live essentially where they and their families have been born for countless generations - and, by and large, they work and struggle to survive - with the usual percentage that one finds anywhere who aren't worth their weight in dung as far their contribution to staying alive goes. And then there's a somewhat nebulous bunch who apparently live some sort of contrived form of "off the grid" living- but they seem to think "off the grid" means monthly Vegas checks is part of the game. I don't really know or understand much about this latter apparent bunch, but it sounds like some do, and I don't like the sound of it.

It is a tough nut to crack when the question turns to the relative value of an individual in question versus a bag of dung...

Recall the "Parable of the Talents"......


I've got no issue whatsoever with helping the poor. My definition of poor, however, differs from some in that I think it relates to the "talents" we use. I have no time and less compassion for those who won't try. But I get a real warm feeling of generosity when I see some arthritic elder who is still dipping their hands into the icy tanks of herring and hefting flopping salmon onto the cutting table so they'll have food to eat in winter. I'll gladly burn a few gallons of gas to get them to their favorite berry patches or drop off a quarter of moose or a caribou. Their perfectly healthy young neighbors whose idea of hunting is reaching in the freezer case and "hunting" Banquet chicken with their SNAP cards.......I wouldn't sell them game meat if it was legal.

You're a good man Mark. I think real Alaskans whether bush, urban or somewhere in between have the same sentiment. There is no greater feeling than giving fish or game to someone who knows the hard work involved in harvesting the game.

I'm reminded of another saying, well an adaptation of one. Teach a man to fish and he'll feed himself for life. Give a man a fish and he'll be by the next day expecting another one.

Absolutely!

Klik
PLEASE! Let me know if I can ever help a real Alaskan get to their berrypatch! Or anything similar.
art

The middle part of your post is spot on , its being talked about by the companies that actually create wealth , and ignored by the people who spend it. Wife has tried to fill positions that paid six figures in the past with some difficulty , new taxes coupled with astronomical cost of living isn't exactly great incentive for the kinds of people we do want here.

Real bear guides own SuperCubs and know where the best berry-patches are! (Well, the berry patch part anyway. )

Takes one back to the Working people are stupid link

People like this woman are the reason the whole country is circling the drain!
And why Bernie sanders is a viable candidate for president....

??????????????????????????? Relevance ??????

I think the PFD is a social experiment that we can officially write off as having "failed". Sure we all enjoy getting a little cash to pay off some debts or take a trip to Hawaii, but the net affect is a loss in my opinion. Too many people who have done the math on how to avoid being a productive citizen. Between PFD's, Quest cards, denali kid care, unemployment, and the good will of the community, there are more people than I thought living off the system. Flush it all away, use the earnings to pay for education, infrastructure, or other necessary state gov. Hopefully the sucking sound will pull some of these lowlifes out of the state. Its alot warmer in a place like CA or HI for freeloaders to hang.

Natives have been here for thousands of years

Like the whole united states here, I wish you luck in doing away with the load of feebies. Luckily yours is based on petro, and as such could be just stopped period.

It would alienate a lot of voters, but that's life.

I would hope it would allow you to have many of your leeches migrate south.

Don't want em here in TX, but I understand the feelings.

Heck if I had known about this system years ago the wife and I would have already quit our jobs and come up to live off your sustenance for free. LOL.

Still hope to be up in a number of years to be a PRODUCTIVE part of your great state.

In the words of the Worm from Wasilla, the solution might be ending that, at least for some:




The truth is, if you start kicking the legs out from under the table, you'll undoubtedly discover that the biggest tables don't actually have legs of their own, and the legs under them are actually those of the "lesser" tables.

If we would stop acting like fools who just won the lottery in times of boom, there would be room for everyone when things get lean.

A little over 18-months into a down cycle in oil markets Sen. McGuire proposes to make a permanent change to the 35 year PFD program which, if passed, would forever delink individual Alaskans from a financial interest in the Permanent Fund, turning the earnings over entirely to support for government spending and tying the dividend thereafter to oil revenues.

At the very time the fund is reaching significant size the effect would be that Alaskans would lose the benefit of what they have been investing in for over three decades, the Alaska equivalent of the federal government converting the Social Security Fund to supporting federal spending and linking subsequent payments instead to royalties from federal mineral lands.

The reason? To be able to maintain future spending at levels about 20% higher than they would have been had the state kept spending growth to inflation plus population growth over the last ten years, and which are justified by current sustainable revenue levels. Alaska doesn't need to go down this road.

Between the CBR and earnings reserve Alaska still will have roughly $12 billion in fiscal reserves at the end of this fiscal year, which when coupled with reducing spending to sustainable levels is more than enough to ride out the bottom of the current oil cycle without cutting the PFD or adopting broad based taxes.

This isn't about revenue; this is clearly about spending levels. And there is even a greater problem this creates. Because earnings from the Permanent Fund are variable, they also won't be sufficient to sustain elevated spending levels over the long term. As a result, going down this road ultimately will create a need for broad based and other taxes.

The Alaska advantage in developing our resources will be lost. We are coming up on an inflection point in Alaska's fiscal history. By continuing a government economy built on overspending, choosing to make permanent changes will send us down an increasingly difficult road.

http://www.alaskacommons.com/2016/02/09/sen-lesil-mcguire-debuts-alternative-hybrid-fiscal-plan

We have been up in Alaska for 17+ years and we have always looked at the PFD as a windfall for our 3 kids. We have stuffed every PFD we have ever received into 529 accounts and they have provided a nice nest egg for each of the kids to use for college. I think this is not the norm because none of the guys I work with do this and see the PFD as part of their income.

If we were to stop the PFD today I would miss it but I see it as a gift or really as a form of welfare. Most whom I work with see it as theirs. Not sure how I feel about it but if it goes it goes. Our greedy politicians have been chomping at the Bit for years trying to get it and now they just may have found a way to do it!

Lets just kill the Mega Projects, kill the travel and get rid of the LAO and start living closer to our means??? Na......

As far as calling Alaska natives lowlifes, I'd say that there's plenty of scumbags in watch4bears neighborhood too, mostly white, and actually, the people who live on the road system where jobs are actually available meet the definition of scumbag much more than people who live in the village where they were born and there just aren't any jobs.

People who use the system to avoid working are lowlifes, but every person is an individual, and your race does not define you.

Remember that Bear is actually a fat Japanese dude with a really sick Tumbler account. I don't really think he lives in the valley guys.

Then I should be eligible for a government check; you know, as an undefined individual

Give the state gov the PFD earnings and they will piss it away just like the initial swell of revenue from '77? when TAPS started flowing until the "first crash" in '85.

Bastids could not spend that money fast enough nor hold back on things too stupid. Why expect anything different now?

If you're a resident, you ARE eligible for a government check.

You are right, but one process that only costs me a PFD check each year would be better for the state and the people as it would make it obvious when they overspend.

Not sure it would be obvious *enough* to the majority.

it's not so much the PFD check but the waste it would encourage.

Unless you're blind, you'll note that the Mat Valley, and many other road accessible, mostly white communities, are chock full of freeloaders/welfare queens.

Jeff

That explains how we got Walker; and why we needs more welfare monies. Viscous circle ain't it?


Reckon raiding the PFD will stop welfare for good?

Nope, but it beats the schit out of an income tax that only affects those who work!

I am glad we finally danced all the way around cutting the size of government. I was getting tired feet

And that's a big part of the reason we get into the trouble we're in now. When things start booming, stuff...needs...which we haven't been able to afford for years, suddenly become, "Oh, here, we know you've waited for this new school for years, and we know $15 million will make a nice one. But we have gobs of money now, so here's $30 million instead. Make sure you build a big one with plenty of surface area since you live where the wind blows strong and regular. That way you can help keep the demand for Alaskan oil high."

And so we strap ourselves with stuff that we can't afford when times get tough.

Meanwhile the roads turn to sshit.

A projection when the Barrow high school was being built said the first several decades worth of students could each be given a check for a cool million dollars instead of building it... and saved money...

Several schools on the KP that would have paid for decades of school busses. The state formula makes it more expensive to close a school than to keep it open. Nutso.

Lets give the legislators the PFD and income tax. How long before the PFD is pissed away and income tax rates rise? Nutso +P.

But do we put a 'hold' on the new ones we're building?

(We all know the answer to that, and the excuse is that, "Well, we have to keep funding that because we get matching fed funds. Perhaps that applies to other things too?")

I suspect if a person were to put a pencil to paper presently, and work from the outlying areas to the inlying, that one would discover that there isn't much Alaska can afford, right now especially, except, perhaps, for a few hotel housekeepers and a few cab drivers. (Have to support Ted Stevens/ AIA since that is kind of the major reason Anchorage exists; I reckon international traffic might pay for the lights for a while.)

Theres no doubt that alot of the development in the bush suffers unnecessarily from "architect's disease"...too much money, too big, too nice, too much maintenance reqd, poor site selection, etc

I just had a conversation with a contractor and project manager yesterday where rather that just install a smaller pump, they want to put in a Variable Frequency Drive to use the existing oversized pump. Well, WTF happens when the VFD goes tits up? Who can maintain or repair it in a tiny village on the NW coast?. K.I.S.S......

BTW, if they are going to take an income tax anyway, then I'm OK with leaving the PFD alone. Im just saying that it makes a ton more sense to use the interest from the PFD RATHER than have an income tax.

Takie 1/3 of the PFD and have the reason be to fund state government. People have forgotten that state spending effects us each.

My hope would be way more citizens concerned with what is going on in Juneau or the local level. It may just be a pipe dream, but concern from a greater number of citizens could go a long way in curtailing so of the dumb stuff that happens.

An obvious point overlooked till Dan H just mentioned it is the fact the PFD is not an all or nothing largesse for the Juneau azzhats...

We got along with out the PFD for a long time. We can get along with out it now! However, it does irk the heck outa me to know that beurocrats will just squander that money on pet projects, that only benefit a few.

Not a popular thought but if we need taxes I would rather to see a state wide sales tax on most items (excluding food) and have it seasonally adjust to benefit from our tourist crush. Tourist will not bypass AK in favor of another destination because of an additional 1% in a sales tax so don't go there.


Any consideration of any tax needs a high and low projection of expected revenue raised so we the voters can see all options side by side. No rosy projections of pie in the sky numbers either.

Sales tax
PFD reduction
Income Tax
or???

Side by side

There you go, wanting to continue screwing visitors...

If you want to screw visitors why not just raise landing fees at the airports and docks and especially the train stations?

Why have sales tax and income tax when they both have huge infrastructural requirements that do not lend themselves to being handled by the same employees?

Oh yeah, you think wealth redistribution is a good thing... and ...

Screw it, arguing with morons is just not fun...

Think the bastids will stop at a "portion"? Camel nose meet tent.

I'm sure there is plenty of slack in the budget that could go.

I realize we are screwed, but it just does not have to be so...

The morons that got us in the mess are still holding the reins, how could it turn out any different? I heard in addition to their pay for a 90 day legislative session, some legislators manage to rack up ~$100,000 a year in relocation, travel costs and per diem. You think those folks have a clue about being thoughtful with money???

Moving the capitol would be the first thing done if I were King for a day! Cloistering themselves down in Juneau makes it too difficult for people to visit them and explain how things should work...

lol...

i remain unconvinced that there would be that many 'visits'.

Color me green...like jade(ed).

Oh, I guarantee there would be many more visits than there are now. I used to make the trip fairly often until I got the green, too... not having to spend hundreds to get there would make it worthwhile for me to go again.

Maybe the government should stop subsiding air flights (About $20,000,00 in EAS subsidized) in AK and, I bet many in rural AK would have to leave the villages due to not be able to afford living there.

Ever consider that you are not 'typical'?

In a good way, of course.

I have no interest in being "typical" and have plenty of life experience to prove it is counter-productive.

$15 million in Alaska, primarily in the Aleutians, Southeast and between. Virtually all without road access to anywhere; some might access ferry transportation via smaller boats. I see none of the numerous small villages further north on the list of EAS.

$220 million in the lower 48, virtually all with road access to hub locations.

I'll bet there's an easy $200 million that could be cut though.

I agree with you that people will immigrate to Alaska for the PDF and other benefits Alaska provides in conjunction with the Federal Government. But we must place the fault on our governments (State and Federal) for creating programs and passing laws that make all the benefits possible.

For example, we have our own "sanctuary city" in Alaska. In the past there have been arrangements to establish populations of immigrants from Russia and other places around the State. You can have a very large group of family and friends moving into any location in bush Alaska where there aren't jobs, and our State and Federal programs will take care of them. Since the cost of living is quite high in the bush, compared to Anchorage, Juneau, and Fairbanks, the benefits are also higher.

Maybe Los Anchorage is not a Sanctuary city after all?
http://sanctuarycities.info/denial_letters/anchorage_alaska.pdf