Bottom dropped out again.

Back to the same prices we were getting since the 80's.

One reason cited is a glut of beef imported from China.




We're the gov't. We're here to help...

Damn.

The thing that really hurts is that we had just bought some bred heifers, at a pretty steep price, when the bottom started falling out. They'll be old cows before we ever get our money back out of them. I guess I wouldn't mind the price drop so much, if prices in the grocery stores would follow suit. Now, I've heard people say that it takes a long time for those prices to come down, but that's something I've never really believed.

You called it on September 12th:

I posted this: "With grain and cattle prices as low as they currently are, many farmers do need help.".

You posted this response: "Cattle prices are high now. Have been for a couple of years. Before that, for about 20 years it was a "may break even" proposition. I have every faith that cattle prices will plummet again though.".

I'd LOVE to have the prices from 3 weeks ago, now.

Yeah, I hear ya.

Hamburger is still $5 a pound, which is what it went to during the very highest of cattle prices a year and a half ago. It's come down very little...

The beef market from kill prices to full replacement of the beef in storage for retail sale is 10 days to 2 weeks.

Someone is making a killing...

My MIL sold 477 head between August 27th and September 8th for between $76 and $80 per CWT with the buyer picking them up at the ranches, 215 in South Dakota and 262 in Colorado. My BIL wanted her to hold off selling until the Colorado cattle would have to be hauled down off the high altitude summer pastures, but she felt that the prices were fair, the terms were good, and she had "a feeling", so she sold them all.

Rockinbar,

Where did you get the idea that China is an exporter of beef to the US? They are potentially a major market. http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bee...-premier-statement-on-imports-1474494579

The 4 major beef processors (Tyson, Cargill, JBS, and National Beef) control the price they are going to pay for cattle with the importation of beef or live cattle from Canada and Mexico.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-september/how-much-us-meat.aspx#.V_ZtvPQvThU
The data is a few years old but is still representative. If a rancher isn't involved with direct marketing of their beef to the consumer they will always be at the mercy of the prices set by the big meatpackers.

China just uplifted their 12-13 year ban on importing US beef, and like you say Phasmid hopefully they will be importing and soon.


I'm pretty sure they don't export beef much less to us.


The strong dollar and herd expansion caught up to demand and that's hurting the market right now.

It peaked in the final quarter of 2014 and has been slowly falling ever since. I don't think we've hit the bottom yet, maybe, hopefully.....

Live cattle have been hanging around a $1 for some time now.

Sam, I was trying to find and post a graph of the cattle cycle.

In short, a couple years of smoking $$ cigars, and scratchin' with the chickens the other 85% of the time.

Richard, good to hear from you!


Back to scratchin' by for now....


But that's just the way it is and will always be. Luckily if a guy keeps operating expenses low enough I guess there's still a little left over for cheap beer....

Phasmid, I was listening to the report on the radio in my tractor. I thought I caught the gist of what the guy was saying, but it's kinda hard to hear over the drone of the equipment running.

The main take away I got was cattle selling for 89-93 cents now...

Down here Australia cattle are at record highs:

Angus steer 240 kilos or 588 lb worth roughly AUD $ 4.40 per KG live ex farm...or AUD $1.80 per pound @ .75c exchange rate is US $ 1.37 per pound.

Totally weather driven pricing for the moment most feedlots and backgrounders going ok, cow calf operations very well. Most equity being lost in the packer segment of the market.

Not sure what happens in the new year...I think our beef cyle is about 3 years behind the US so we have a year to run yet...

Rufus, that is interesting.

In northern Montana decent 5-6 weight steer calves are bringing around $1.25lb this week.

A year ago they were over $2/lb.


Roughly a $400 drop per head in price.

I'd say we are slightly better than break even with the current market.

Sam, ever hear the joke from 1976?
Ford comes out with a "Cattle Feeder's Special pickup.

No seat, no steering wheel.

For the cattle feeder that has lost his ass and doesn't know which way to turn.

Richard, now is the time to buy!


Cheap feeders and cheap feed, a guy can't go wrong....grin

Sam, I watched PBS Market to Market tonight, Walt Hackney said much the same thing.

One thing about cows, and cattle, they sure enough keep a fellow humble.

Cows come in many shapes, and colors, but in the end there are only two, hungry cows, and dead cows.

Richard, we preg tested heifers this morning.

Gathered yesterday and got a count.

5 missing but hopefully they are with the cows.

Tested 72 head and had 4 opens. Little under 5% which isn't too bad.


A guy can whine a little about the current market but we were blessed with great moisture this year. Already have a good head start on sub moisture for next year.

Crested wheat grass greened back up and is trying to grow. Some stock dams are full which is great considering it's October...

No complaints here.

Sam hope you have lot's of good hay and water and no coyotes Russ

Russ, we still have 60 acres of 2nd alfalfa cutting to cut.

To late now and it will never dry enough to bale, cows will be eating it out of the windrow when they come home for winter.


Luckily our neighbor has 100 ton for sale.

Around here, it was a tractor, made for the farmer. Believe me, there would have been a market for them.

We sold most of our cattle last winter. Only good marketing I have ever done.

Not selling anything right now except for one crazy heifer. Otherwise we are just going to hold tight. Imagine it can't drop a whole lot more and hoping it might strengthen.

Holding on the cattle can work, some times, for some people, but when the entire industry does it, it can make things worse.

I was doing brush control on a ranch yesterday, and the guy had calves weighing 800-900lbs.

When I talked to him, I said he sure had some big calves out there. He told me he hates to sell them now...

I reckon that works til the grass runs out...

We sold calves three weeks ago. Steers in the 580# range brought $1.33 and heifers in the 475 range $1.18. Two years ago the steers brought $2.68. That is about a $900 drop.

The guys around here are running out of grass, prices dropped again into the $1.20's and I saw some feeding hay already. Going to be a tough year for some folks.

Prices have leveled off a bit here.

Hope it sticks.

I know squat about cattle and/or cattle pricing but when I was out Coyote hunting with my buddy from WY a couple of weeks ago we ran into an old rancher/farmer and he and Craig got to talking cattle and crops. He told us that wheat farming was a bust these days so put his fields into grass a couple of years ago and started concentrating on cattle. He said he was doing really well with fall calves....apparently it takes a lot of hay to raise fall calves but he has plenty so he's making a pile of money. Sure enough when we went by his place he had a whole lot full of new calves.

I guess the moral of this story is that Coyote hunting is not only fun but it's educational too...

And, raising cattle can be "Educational", as well.

Today was the 'big' day.

Hauled the calves to town yesterday for today's sale and it's all over except for the cryin'....grin


Can't really whine too much I guess, haven't heard what they brought.


When we weaned early last November, 5 weight steer calves were selling for $1.30, about $700/head.



Hopefully we got $1.30 for 7 weights today. About $900.
(not on sure on how much feed cost for last 90 days)


Should have sold last week.....


Or next week?

The 4-5 day slide finally stopped and it closed up $1.675 this afternoon.

About the same down here as well.

The bigger calves like you sold are rising again.

I'm glad!

And holding my calves to let them gain a bit more...

Good luck man, hopefully we sold at the bottom and it goes back up for you...grin




The worst thing about growing grain and cattle is trying to guess the market!

That's anything in the commodity market.

If we only had a crystal ball!

If anyone could predict to future, he would not need to work, and he sure nough would not be rubbin' elboes with the likes of us.

Sounds a lot like how the refiners control gas prices. Of course, that is always given great support here at the 'fire.

We sent a few to Cargill last week, check came yesterday. CAB choice graded steers brought $1.83.

Just got the market report for last week's sales.

700 wts. $140.00

500 wts. $175.00

Last week was the short term peak. They are off 3-8 cents now around here.


We missed it by a week and probably lost $20-35/head. Tear in my beer.......grin



Ben, explain a little more please.

We sent a few steers to the nearby Cargill packing plant. They pay by how well it grades. Ours graded Choice, with a certified angus beef premium. They payed $1.83/lb on the rail. Our steers hung an average 950lbs.

You feed them out, I take it?

I had to google CAB and figured that was on the rail pricing but wasn't sure.

What did those bad boys weigh on the hoof?

I just drove all the way across Texas, and close to half of New Mexico, and I saw more yearlings on wheat than I ever have on on one of the trips. From Texarkana to currently sitting in Alamagorda. miles

Miles, sounds like you're getting close. Sure will be good to see you.

Jeff

For better, or worse, we picked up 53 head of today, wish us luck.

Hope all you cattleman have plenty of water and don't have to break and throw ice every day, too much hay, healthy herds and twins and good markets when you sell.

Twins, shudder, nice when you sell two, a LOT, of trouble for a long while after birth.

Richard - what was the name of the owner of the sale barn in Storm Lake back in the day?

It just came to me - Gaffney, right?

good to sell and hench the healthy

John, KAYL radio, "You Know, those Gaffeny Brothers will do a good job for you."
John was the name of one brother, and I plumb forgot the other name.

Good luck Richard.


Twins...


My dad taught me that after pulling a calf out of a heifer put on a clean glove and make sure there isn't another one.

Especially if the first calf is a dink.


We had an extra calf(or two) left over this past spring after the cows went out on grass.



Pair off loads(match ear tags) and later on find out we have two 914's in the book. Tagged on different days, heifer and steer twins.

Whoops.

Always best to sell them right away if someone is wanting a bum calf. Bottle calves were $300-400 a year or two ago...


Chow line this morning.

That's pretty Sam. Better your feed than mine.
Cows have a way of keepin' a fellow busy, and humble.
Never forget where you put that wire stretcher!

When I am feeding a bottle calf, or calves, I keep telling myself, someday, should be a high dollar fat steer, or heifer.

"Mamma's don't let your babies grow up to be cowboys"!

We don't usually weigh them, but I'd guess somewhere in the upper 1500-1600's.

Ben, what is your ration for those fat cattle?

That's what I was gonna ask.

And what weight they start feeding them.

Big steers!



We just got the results from 'payday'.

On the steer side the big end averaged 788, middle made 689.

Everything averaged about $80 more per head than we figured so nothing to complain about here.

I asked Ben about his ration, but here is what I was mixing when our son was off fishing.

70# protein

1200# cracked corn

20# balancer for the dried distillers grain

470# dried distiller's grain

770# ground hay

840# corn silage

That is a half, and half ration, we are getting off the distillers grain. It seems like we write a lot of checks compared to what the fats bring, and the market price of corn.

Sam, 788, you are most of the way to having "big boys", of your own.
Ever think of retaining ownership, and having a yard finish them?

Richard, that looks like a high dollar mix!



I am not sure what ratio my dad has been mixing for the calves but it is ground alfalfa, pea/wheat pellets and corn silage.


And we rolled out a bunch of straw bales for them in the last 80-90 days.

Keep 'em comfortable.



Richard, wish we could find more grass!


Yeah, I don't know. Keep 'em, sell 'em?

All I've learned is that you never know.


I would love to get a 7-8 day advanced copy of the cattle on feed report.....grin

Wouldn't we all?

Sam, I guess we never figure it out on a daily cost.

One old story is, an Iowa farmer bought some calves.

He thought at the price he paid, the rancher made some money, the sale barn made their commission, the trucker made his share bringing them to the farm, his veterinary made some money, the elevator where he bought his feed made some money, the trucker made money hauling the cattle to the packer that bought them, as did the packer at the sale price.
See it coming(?), the farmer made nothing.

Richard, and then the tractor breaks down.....grin


What is the going rate for sales barn commission?

Our ration is pretty simple.
For the fat steers.
45℅ grass silage
45℅ corn silage
10℅ ground ear corn
Plus 1.5 lbs of a protein/mineral concentrate per head

Or feeders get some good baleage, and grass silage plus a 16℅ pellet.

We put our calves in the feedlot after their weaned in the fall.

We don't like the cattle we buy to be under 500lbs, but we'll buy anything bigger we can finish.

Ben, what are you calling grass silage?
What is the origin of feeders bought in Pennsylvana?

Grass silage is basically hay that's cut when it's still really green, then chopped and stored like corn silage.





We usually buy our cattle directly from other farms, haven't been to the sale barn in years. The last group we bought from out of state came from Virginia.

So Ben, is that a legume, alfalfa, not a grass like brome?

When I tried wet alfalfa silage it turned out so sour cattle would not eat it.

I've used it but you have to check the moisture content carefully before you put it up.

Had better luck with sorghum type silage.

rockinbar, the big round, then big square bales took away the need/ideas, of hay silage for us.

Back when the farm program let us raise sorghum on the set aside acres I'd plant forage sorghum on those acres.
Mean stuff to chop, it would go down, and not feed worth a hoot.

Anybody here feeding Sudan Grass?

Ed

Fertilized coastal here.

They did into it too!

Lately we've been reseeding with an orchardgrass/clover mix. It works well for us. We usually decent bit of baleage and silage with it (which is in that pic)

We have a few ag baggers and rent them out locally. They bag a bit of everything, alfalfa, sorghum, oats&peas, Sudan grass, etc.

They've come out with some new varieties of Sudan grass and sorghum lately, that alot of the dairies have been feeding.

Ben, with the big Iowa corn crop last fall, I see bags of shelled corn.