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Joined: Jan 2008
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
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Are you sure you heard Nate Silver right? Updated 7 minutes ago. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromoFiveThirtyEight
Chance of winning
Hillary Clinton 53.2%
Donald Trump 46.8%
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence". John Adams
"A dishonest man can always be trusted to be dishonest". Captain Jack Sparrow
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Joined: Jan 2010
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
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I guess the Daily Caller can lie Statistics site 538, which is operated by Nate Silver, adjusted its projections ahead of the debate Monday, giving the odds to Republican nominee Donald Trump. If the election were held today, Trump leads with a 54.9 percent chance of winning the election, according to the site. The win projection stems from Trump winning the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. The same projection shows Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia. http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/26/silver-trump-would-win-if-election-were-held-today/
Last edited by KFWA; 09/26/16.
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Joined: Nov 2007
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Nov 2007
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Who is Nate Silver? Is that someone who is supposed to have an opinion that means something? I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, just wondering why his opinion is supposed to be more important than the janitor's opinion.
Tom
Anyone who thinks there's two sides to everything hasn't met a M�bius strip.
Here be dragons ...
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Joined: Jan 2010
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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he did some accurate polling in the last election and has been leveraging that to predict all sorts of things.
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 26,524
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 26,524 |
Does Nate know about the Electoral College?
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 23,530
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
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fwiw, Nate said Trump had a 5% chance of winning the republican nomination at one time.
Predicting Trump has been bad business for the people who make a living from it.
Last edited by KFWA; 09/26/16.
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 5,222
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2008
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He is a statistician specializing in baseball and politics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_SilverNathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[4]
After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]
In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times.[6][7] In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.
In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8] http://fivethirtyeight.com/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ce-stands-heading-into-the-first-debate/
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence". John Adams
"A dishonest man can always be trusted to be dishonest". Captain Jack Sparrow
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