Market Update March 19, 2017Rida MorwaThe S&P 500 had a choppy week, but the selling has been very light;
investors stepped in at each pullback to buy stocks. To the
downside the S&P 500 index tested the 2360 level for support, and
has found it there. I do believe the light volatility we saw this
week was mostly being driven by options expiration which takes
place the 3rd week of each month, and is now out of the way (last
day was the closing day on Friday). The market looks pretty
resilient despite the fact that there has been plenty of reasons
for the market to move lower:
The U.S. Fed hiked rates by 0.25% this week, which could have
created a short-term market pullback.
We won't be getting major earnings reports for another month which
could have resulted in some profit taking.
Signals have been sent that tax reforms might be delayed a bit.
What is driving the markets are strong economic fundamentals and
hopes of an improving global economy. The risks of a recession are
the lowest we have seen in many years, which has been confirmed by
Mrs. Yellen's confident speech about the U.S. economy last
Wednesday. Ms. Yellen also noted that rates will rise at a slow and
measured pace as the Fed will remain accommodative.
What comes next?While the possible bad news is out of the way, the 2400 level for
the S&P 500 index continues to be resistant. I expect the markets
to consolidate and to be range bound for a few weeks. This
consolidation will simply be an opportunity to build up enough
momentum to finally break out to the upside. My next target for the
S&P 500 index is at the 2500 initially (or 5% higher from here),
and then I believe that we will break out to the upside some more.
The uptrend in equities has been so strong which looks very
bullish. Long-term investors will be well rewarded.
The S&P 500 trading rangeTo the upside, the 2400 level is the next target for the index.
To the downside, the 2360 level is the first level of support, with
the 2300 level offering an "absolute" floor.
Best course of action for HDO MembersFor those fully invested: Keep holding and collect the dividends.
For those who wish to put new money at work, buy a 100% of your
intended target position from the stocks and securities tagged as
Must-Own and Top-Buy (listed below), while taking into account the
"Buy Under" prices. Again, those who are fully invested should do
very well. . .