I will go out on a limb and say Bob will win his bet with Mike. Three years is not near enough time to work out this kink alone.
He lost the last one.
I suspect when confidence is lost in the current monetary regime that we WILL have some type of reserve backed by metals. It may not be the FRN$, and will likely be something on the order of an SDR with gold a large part of the basket, and with the option of allowing trades to be settled in gold. I predict that in order to re instill confidence in the system as a whole, and to have a common reserve store of value, metals will play a large role. The bonfire of the currencies will likely destroy ALL paper currencies to one degree or another, as they are all derivatives of the FRN$.
BTW, if there is an individual country re valuation, I suspect it will be based upon the on the M2, MZM or M3 of the individual countries. Most bonds will be made worthless in the run up to the re introduction of a metals standard. The ridiculous numbers involved show how out of control the creation of paper currencies and credit has become, especially in light of the declining earnings of most individuals. The same currencies that give such seemingly ridiculous figures per ounce of gold are also used for day to day life. When the velocity of these currency units increases, even a little, the prices for commodities will water the eyes.
Also, your Chinese numbers may be a little off because China has moved to the number one producer of gold in the world, and they allow no exports. Their mine supply each year is estimated close to 300 tonnes, and their central bank hasn't reported their holdings for the last two years. This doesn't include the amounts that they are purchasing with their FRN$'s for gold on the cash market. Their gold stocks are likely to be much higher than the 1030 Tonnes that they reported a few years ago.
Of course, I could be wrong, and paper and electronic money, and all their derivative products could continue to infinity, but history is against this happening. I think that I'll stick to my metals, especially as bullion alone has outperformed both stocks and bonds over the last 11 years, especially if one uses constant 2000 FRN$'s.
