Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Millineals may kill off Harley Davidson

In particular the effect on our Texas Hill Country backroads over the 30 plus years I've been here have been simply unreal. Its been seven years now since I last rode cross-country on a motorcycle (I do bicycles now ), but everywhere I went (including the Tail of the Dragon and Marcus Dairy), same story.

Birdwatcher

I'm not buying land around there. Anywhere I deer hunt I am but land for that price. And yes, it's a forest..

I'm not buying land around there. Anywhere I deer hunt I am but land for that price. And yes, it's a forest..

Back on topic,
My view as to why Harley stock is down.

2017 Harley introduced the Milwaukee Eight motor in all of the touring motorcycles.
The touring line is the largest selling line in Harleys lineup.
The M8 motor is nothing but a large EPA motor. In all engineering standards it is a step backwards from the TC 103HO. Maybe, time will tell, for sure it's more complicated & costly to produce. From my own personal perspective, I do not like the looks of it, especially the look of the heads.
A lot of people got burned with the short lived Rushmore engine and are leery of getting stuck with a obsolete engine in a few years.
The TC 103HO is the best V-Twin engine ever put in a motorcycle. Agreed but that includes the 96 inch engine too..........no real differences. It does have a couple of flaws from the factory. They should address the problems and keep the engine. This biggest issue is the need to meet emission regs by using the closed loop fueling system & the heat it generates from running so lean.

Price,
Harleys have never been cheap.
The Big Twin line is over priced. Too some degree; but those lines also have all the bells & whistles added too, so you have to take that into account as well as just the engine. I was at the local dealer picking up some parts and got into a discussion with a salesman.
Parked next to each other were a new Roadster and a Lowrider S. The bikes are very similar and I ask, why is the Lowrider 7k more than the Roadster? Actually the list price is only $6200 difference & of that, some $1,600 is made up of the fact that the Low Rider S has ABS, cruise control & a security system as standard plus a PREMIUM 110 CI Screamin' Eagle CVO Engine & a 6 speed transmission so the Low Rider S vs Roadster comparison is not a very good comparison. Comparing a plain Low Rider to a Roadster is only a $3,400 difference most of which is the TC 103 & a 6-speed trans vs a 1200 engine & a 5-speed trans is a much closer & truer comparison.
From a manufacturing perspective I can not see the Lowrider to cost more than 1k more to make than the Roadster. Is the TC 103 & the 6-speed trans worth $3,400...................I'd surely say so.
You are going off a perceived value. Not manufacturing cost. A cylinder does not cost much different to manufacture if it is 3.5",3.875 or 4". Same with casting the cylinder heads connecting rods and flywheel assembly. XL has four gear driven cams that need to be sized properly instead of two chain driven cams. Lifters,rocker arms and rocker shafts are the same. XL oil pump costs much more than a TC punp. A lot of the transmission parts are the same, just add two more gears and a shift fork. The big twin powertrain does not cost much more to manufacture than a XL. The 110 engine does not cost Harley any substantial amount to manufacture than a 103.

The Roadster is not a doorbuster model.
The electric bike, Every Harley owner I have spoken to is PO'ed that Harley is wasting their profits on this stupid idea. I don't think they are wasting as much money as you might think...................this project is not getting much attention & it's going nowhere & Harley knows it. It's all for show. You may be right but this is a preconceived notion that owners feel, bad PR
No one in their market gives a rats azz about a electric bike. The people that do like them dont like Harley and would never buy anything that says Harley on it.
Harley has gone from being a expensive bike to a overpriced bike. Yes, for sure with some models, but there are plenty of buyers for the high end versions, ie CVO's.

The market,
The market is down for all large cruiser and touring bikes. They overall market may be down, but those are still & will continue to be, Harley's biggest sellers, period.
Indian has made a big splash. BS More like a small drip......................they don't have a 2% market share. A big new Indian dealer opened up this spring about 3 miles from my shop. The Harley dealer is a couple miles the other way. I can tell you first hand Indian is moving bikes out of the new fancy dealers. More dealers are opening around the country. Indian took a different approach that Victory. Polaris used their established "Polaris" dealers to sell and service their bikes. Indian is following Harleys lead and having "boutique" dealerships. This can cause a market downturn in stock prices. People can think they are going to be big.
This will level out.
The only Harley customers that Indian is taking are the Road King and Heritage Softail buyers. The Indian styling only appeals to them.
I would never trade the styling of my Road Glide for the 40's look of a Chief. Same thing with a Dyna and a Scout.
Indian's customers are coming from the metric cruiser market, not so much Harleys. If anyone thinks that Harley don't handle well, try an Indian & you'll find out what bad handling really is; try walking one around in a circle in a parking lot too & see how well you like it.

How many motorcycle manufacturers make only large street motorcycles?
Other than Harley, BMW and Ducati is the only ones with any kind of market share, and it is a very small share.
Could Honda stand on it's own if all it sold was 750+ cc street motorcycles? I have a hard time believing that BMW could stay in business if it didn't have the backing of BMW Group. Go to Europe & you'll be able to figure out how BMW stays in business; better yet ride one of their larger street bikes down the highway at 110 mph.Dont get me wrong. BMW does make a good bike but could they stay in business without the financial and most impotently the engineering backing they have? I would love to take my Roadglide down the autobahn and run it 110 all day, I run 100 all the way across S Dakota with friends on their Beemers they got nothing on my Glide.

Younger riders
I said it before and will say it again, plenty of younger people are buying Harleys and motorcycles in general. They just are not buying new.
Walking around my shop this morning I took inventory of the bikes and the owners that are in my shop for work.
I have 16 bikes in here for work to be done or are waiting to be picked up. Of the 16 only 3 are owned by people over 45. Only 2 were bought new by the current owner. None of the bikes are older than '93 and the majority are 06 and up.
Last night I had a early 20's kid drop off a bike he just bought for me to get running better. '93 FXR custom paint and clean as a whistle. He paid $4500 for it. Many of the younger riders simply can't afford a Harley at a younger age even if they wanted one; many will move up as they are better able to afford more, & as riding habits & preferences change.
I see and talk to a lot of under 40 riders. The young guys like to stop by and BS with the old grey beard. The one thing I always tell them is,
The good old days were not that F'ing good.
Today is the good days.

Harley has survived the AMF years, the bankruptcy years and the rise to the top again years with 3 year waiting period to get a new bike, they survived the great depression and the more recent great recession.
Harley was around long before I was born and will be around long after I am gone. Yes, they will; sales may have peaked, I really don't know, but Harley will adjust & survive.