Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Handguns why do new handgun calibers so often fail?

well, for ccw, choose the handgun bullet performance you want, and work backwards...to the platform that suits your lifestyle. i think a lot of folks wind up back with the 9mm Parabellum and 45ACP and whatever platform meets their needs.

https://www.luckygunner.com/labs/self-defense-ammo-ballistic-tests/


You can make a similar argument with hunting or target bullets... choose the desired effect and work backwards to the cartridge and platform.

Yes, absolutely. But I thought we were talking about 45acp+p.

Don't be confused about my point. The real world does not effect sales as much as common perception. The OP's question relates to sales, not actual performance. It's a mistake to assume that sales are always directly proportional to real world performance. If the proper 10mm (not lite) looks significantly better on paper than 45acp+p (and it does, IMO), sales of 10mm handguns are likely to increase or at least hold steady. 45 Super is without question even more powerful, but factory handguns ready to use it without trepidation are in short supply.

Using Undrrwood Ammo in both the 10mm and 45 ACP in +P shootng both I did not and do not see any superiority in the 10mm over a properly loaded 45ACP

Muzzle Velocity: 1400 fps is only 150 FPS faster. More, but not significantly more ... not so any animal hit with it would notice.

I suspect that is exactly the case, if you're talking about the 255gr 45 at 925 fps vs the 220gr 10mm at 1200. But without a lot of personal experience with both or published head to head comparison (which there isn't) that's still a hard sell. Even knowing what you have (believably) posted and with my own bias for the 45+p, I could go either way. Those less informed but looking at the numbers, may likely assume that the 10mm advantage is real and significant. Additionally, it's hard to argue that the 10mm is actually inferior (without invoking the Super).

Clearly, "significant" has an arguable definition. We've all been down this road before. We can be in complete agreement though, and the market can still act as if we are not.

There is a very good base of experience for a 255gr 45 RNFP or SWC at 925 fps or a bit beyond. It's called the 45 Colt and it kills way better than its paper ballistics would indicate. I like both the 10mm cartridges but they're hard pressed to put meat on the ground faster than a proper 250 grain 45 will.

Yep. Agreed again. But I would argue that isn't what the market is focusing on. You guys are languishing in an argument that doesn't exist here. If it did, you would be on the winning side. The question was about why calibers fail to gain and keep market share. Real world performance is not the sole driver of market share.

What about the new Ruger 57?

New handgun cartridges fail because:
(1) They can't gain any traction. Groups of casual shooters talk about their guns which are chambered in the historically popular group of cartridges (9mm, .45 ACP, .38 Spcl, etc) and when a guy in the group wants to get a new gun, he wants to be cool/popular so he buys something like his buddies have. People that frequent message boards like this are probably less than 2% of the gun buyers' market. The sellers' market caters to those other 98%. The masses in the buyers' market aren't going to buy "new-fangled stuff." They are "going to go with what works, darn it."

(2) The majority of handguns are marketed as self-defense weapons of some capacity, and new handgun cartridges don't do anything dramatically new/different. New cartridges will launch a projectile at less than 1400 fps and the bullet won't create a permanent wound channel in a human body--just the same as all the already existing cartridges. So anything new is not "better." Since they are not better, they don't gain any traction with the 2% of the gun community who might consider something new, or with the 98% who are resistant to change from what already works (discussed in Point #1, supra). As a fringe, new cartridge fails to gain popularity, it becomes expensive--both the guns and the ammo. Then, it's eventual slide to obscurity is all but guaranteed.

That's my two cents; I'm sure I'll get change back.

What type of animal and how many have you killed with each?

A-Hole.

Thought so.

I believe for personal protection, the 9mm and the 357/38Spl are pretty well dialed in. New ammo developments continue to make them better.


Particularly the 9mm, has economy of mass quantity. Probably will be the most popular defensive handgun chambering for a good time to come.


In short, it's tough to beat the 9mm at it's own game.

As much as I’m a proponent of the .357 sig for certain applications, overall you’re correct.

After doing a lot of side-by-side comparisons on vehicles, etc I still believe that for ‘my’ application the sig has some advantages. The advantages of 9mm cost outweighs it, though, when looking at the larger picture.

Thus, the 9mm professionally but I keep an identical gun in .357.

Start watching at 14:15

I'll use myself as an example, regarding the 10mm.

I know that the .45 Colt is a proven performer, and of course, all those calibers above it. But I don't want, for valid reasons that are not uncommon, to carry a large frame revolver - and maybe I just want to carry an auto if possible anyway - one that at doesn't require modification or for me to take on the role of crash test dummy. At this time (unlike ten or more years ago), I can walk into several local gun stores and find on the shelf, factory loads in 10mm that surpass any 45acp loads there by a measurable (I would say significant) degree. While I may be aware that it's possible that I could accomplish what I want (deep penetration on large animals) with one or more of the 45acp+p loads that I might find, it is arguable that the 10mm loads I can readily find in stock will penetrate better (higher velocity + SD per weight), and will certainly not penetrate less.

Having no such experience killing large animals with handgun calibers, which one do you think I might gravitate to, especially if already wanting to buy a new gun? Not another 45acp. I'd propose that I am not even close to unique in that regard, and that is why the 10mm is probably not going away this time, unless some outside factor is inserted.

As you might deduce, this can have a snowballing effect. As more varied and effective loads become available, more gun buyers may decide to go with 10mm, which should motivate ammo makers to provide more 10mm ammo....and on it goes. Until somebody convinces us that the 10mm is somehow a mistake, or something better and more viable comes along. For a while, everybody thought that was the 40S&W, but now, not so much. I don't see that happening again soon, but I could be wrong.

I've watched that video a few times. It's not without merit, but it's also not very scientific. His choice of loads is extremely limited, and his test media is obviously not consistent nor seriously representative of anything real.

Edit: And, BTW, if one were to take his penatration test at face value, one might think that 45 hardball is a great bear round. That front watermelon might suggest otherwise.

real world performance is not the sole driver is very accurate. Take the 9mm, its performance is not "better" than many other cartridges, however its recoil is mild and its "enough" especially with 124 grain gold dots per bluedreax. The 357 sig is a much better performing round and I hazard to say its probably not a 1/10th as popular.

IMHO the Ruger 57 will bring the 5.7X28 to new highs.