Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Covid-19: Not as deadly as we thought....

Good analysis from Slate. Risk may be vastly overstated....


https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.amp

That's pretty much been known all along: those with respiratory issues and those above 80 have the most to worry about.

But there is also a plethora of other things we don't know, like if a person tests positive and they get "well", will they stay well? Will their body be impacted in other ways like lung issues or other organs, does it come back easily or is it a one and done type of thing. And on and on. It appears it doesn't affect kids if healthy, but not enough is known to say that for sure.

No reason to panic, but lots that needs known than is not. We probably should gain a better understanding, rather than blow it off.

Personally, I think Slate is mostly right.

Who thought it was “Deadly”, as in “ Panic a Time.

Not even the a media and the Democrats thought this, although they did their damndest to scare the schit out of America with lies and propaganda, they themselves knew it was less of a danger than the common flu.

They homed in on the Diamond Princess as being the best "lab experiment" yet, as it contains the fewest variables and everybody present was tested (unlike a general population). I've been thinking the same, ever since the cruise ship's stats have been available.

I believe they have found early tests are not that reliable and some who show or feel no symptoms sometimes are carrying it.

Sorry to be a downer or doubter.

Sorry about the formatting as this is in twitter-format.
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant
Jason Van Schoor
@jasonvanschoor
who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick 2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2. 4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.

Personally, I prefer the panic thing...but that's just me, to each their own.

I don't trust these f u ckers around here. I know they know about my toilet paper stash and they've got eyes on us all the time. It's only a matter of time before they start some shixt.

I sit up here in Fairbanks. They have no cases in Alaska yet. I can tell you that the media isn't talking about what is going on in North Italy. I think the world of Trump. I think that we need to go full aggro and do what Taiwan has. They have spread out the virus so it has not caused problems. They have their [bleep] together. Lets look at what they did.

I have follow TW news on this for the past few weeks on youtube.
• Their CDC officials gave daily live press briefing on all the cases.
• They stop all visitors from China very early in Jan.
• All the folks returns from China and other infected locations are required to have app that monitor their locations.
o 14 days monitor periods.
o They are required to answers the phone / video call at random time.
o If they failed to answers, the local polices will check on them.
o If that failed, their info - name, pic, location will broadcast to the TV, internet and the social media.
o There are heavy fine (up to 60K USD) for breaking the quarantine period.
• TW CDC publicizes every single cases (only 45 for now.. ) -
o Don't id the person directly.
o But id their work location,
o places they have been to, etc.
o Living Neighborhood.
o Everything is public. All actions, in-actions are debated public-ally.
• The government immediate focus on Mask productions.
o A few days ago - they can make 10 millions Mask per day now.
o Gov sponsor $$$ for rapid ramp up of mask productions automation lines a few weeks.
• Each citizen can order (2?) per masks and it is associated with their ID. (Health ID).
• There are strict rule in hospital about visitors.
• TW, HK, Singapore all been to SARS in 2003 and learn a lot from that.
o Their systems were all hyper aware of various aspect of the impacts
 Hospitals - How to protect the doctors, nurse.
 Press and media - how to publicize the news without cause panic.
 Economic - there are policy to help individuals and biz to survive the impact.

I think it’s going to kill millions, and there’s nothing we can do about it. I do hope I’m wrong of course. This thing is just getting a foothold.

I agree. It’s going to be hell on older folks. We can either become a police state and attempt to stop it, or say screw it and let it run it’s course. Not sure what’s worse to be honest with you as we could do the whole police state deal, give up many rights, and still end up with it running rampant.

🤣

I bet the people that own funeral homes are jacking off!!!

Something to bear in mind about Italy is that 23% of their population is age 65 or older. That's high. Lots of people there in their 80's and 90's.

I work in Manhattan, fortunately I live in Pennsylvania but I’m still in the city every day. Yeah I’m concerned, I’m working up on York Avenue near all the hospital Sloan Kettering and so on. I have a nurse friend who works at one of the hospitals, their epidemiologist gave a little rundown last Friday to doctors and head nurses on the situation. They stopped all flight related work to other hospitals across the United States and whoever can work at home will do so. They had another meeting today and she told me that now they are seriously concerned, She said avoid groups, which I absolutely left out for crying out loud you’re in Manhattan and constantly wash your hands and face, I said that’s it :-). I can tell you this there isn’t as much traffic heading into the city that has definitely slow down.I am seeing more people wearing masks. Very few people are going into any sushi/Asian restaurant. There are some people that are absolutely clueless and other medical professionals that are concerned.Take it for what it’s worth.

I think it's a lot worse than some of the doubters on here, as well as other places believe it to be. I think it has the POTENTIAL to do just what you say, and you are right in that so far, we have been able to do nothing to stop it. I also believe in taking every precaution one can, because it is always better to err on the side of caution.

If you truly believe that then believe your already f u kd

When testing becomes more widely available and more infected carriers identified, it’s gonna dilute the mortality rate by a bunch.

Unlike the Spanish flu that killed so many, this one generally whacks older, sicker folks. Reckon it could have been part of Obongo’s “death panel” program? Even though operating along similar philosophical lines, that thought gives them way too much credit.

It has killed young, healthy types, like the young whistle blower Chinese doctor. But he could have had some “assistance”. Chicoms don’t tolerate descent, especially when it makes them look bad.

DF

Maybe so, but anything that has the potential to kill you is nothing to take lightly.

Holy moly.....

Please don’t drive or drink water.