Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Covid-19, my take on it.

Of the 80% of mild cases, what is that mortality rate?
I just think there will be many more cases where people don't even know they have it and don't get tested, that the mortality figure of 3% will be way off. If it ends up at 7% of all infected, I will be way wrong and millions of people will be dead.

Agreed. The reports I'm reading suggest a 3-4 month epidemic pattern, with the peak occurring late April to mid May. After the peak, people will be aware of the problem, but much less worried about it. Fauci's "9 months" is much longer than most epidemiologists are saying.

100 years from now they will write about it as the "The Great Cor Con"

I have researched this all quite a bit, including all "pandemics" dating back to the 1800's

here are some facts to possibly ease your mind. For starters, China only had 22 new cases as of yesterday. So where it started has completely dwindled.

Second off, there are more current people that are over it than currently have it. Of the people that did not survive, they likely either had some sort of issue that weakened their immune system. Attached is also a chart of fatality rate chances based on age, assuming you have no underlying issues.

Lastly, I spoke with a doctor yesterday and he said given the fact that there are over 1,000 people in the United States that is known to have it. Then it is likely that anywhere from 50,000-70,000 have it, and have not been tested because their symptoms are so mild it is not worth going to the doctor over. Therefore, if that many people have it, and don't know it then the fatality rate of this virus drastically drops from the 2-3% range into something much lower.

Math. Assuming more people have it than we know, that's rational. People aren't dying left and right, also rational.

Let's bump up the U.S. death toll right now to 100. Obviously that many people haven't been confirmed. But let's say confirmed and unconfirmed. Okay, and 50,000 (roughly) people have it, both confirmed and unconfirmed. The fatality rate would be.. wait for it.. .002%

Death Rate by country (each have 500 minimum known cases).

Italy - 7%
China - 4%
USA - 2%
S. Korea - 0.8%
Germany - 0.2%
France - 2%
Norway - 0.1%
Sweden - 0.1%
Denmark - 0.0%
Belgium - 0.5%
Austria - 0.1%

Again this is KNOWN cases. There are thousands walking around with it and don't know because the symptoms is are mild. Therefore the death rate is significantly lower than these numbers indicate.

Now, I'm not a doctor, just going off what he said.

Reference site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Nope, I can not put two and two together. That must be why I ordered my entire life saving converted from stocks into cash about three weeks ago.

Some of us are just such habitual deniers that we can not accept anything we hear as facts. Some of our denials are well founded (Global Warming). Others, not so much (moon landing, Global Earth, evolution)

I would put C-19 right there with evolution. You might well be dead before you know for sure.

Now you are just being an idiot.

Ignore the media. It has nothing to do with biology, epidemiology, virology, or any other real science. The media are playing games and siding against them leaves you fighting with whom? Ignore them!

Fact: slowing the spread of the virus is critical for two primary reasons. One is to keep from swamping the facilities. Two is to reduce the infection titer so people when infected are not being slammed by huge volumes of virus. This allows them more time to build an immune response.

Fact: both reasons above will contribute to a reduced mortality rate, period.

How much difference will it make? Will that last extra death be in your town, business, or family? What is that worth? Calling out the virus does no good. Try to contest the science. And if you do not really understand statistics you might want to avoid reading anything into them.

Maybe your balls will drop some day, and you can commit to whether this corona bullshit is gonna be worse than previous "scary" flus or not.

My, aren't we clever!

Doc, I sincerely hope you are more correct than I. Even if you are exactly right, April and May are going to be very ugly. Especially to the obese American Senior Citizen with COPD and Diebetes.

Many of us probably ought to be headed to Costco and shopping for a coffin rather than TP.

The facts is, that 80% of the people that get it, ain't gonna GAS.

Another 15% will tough it out without goin to the doctor, cause they're stubborn or cheap.

So, they're not ever gonna get counted as havin corona.

The 5% left go to the doctor, cause they feel like they're gonna die.

And they get tested.

And outta that 5%, 3% are gonna die, cause they're old or sick or whatever.

Just like any other flu.

2 and 2, went over your head.

You can control your posts, but ya can't control your balls droppin.

Maybe someday.

The information provided above says it will be very similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. As far as I know that has been the worst pandemic recorded since the dark ages. The interesting thing is that H1N1 hit us again in 2009, and it was only responsible for a little over half a million deaths world wide.

So, who knows, we might get lucky. But it is much better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

I'm over 60 and have emphysema and think this is all a bunch of BS. Our trip to Hawaii next month has been postponed because the sheep are scared. I think about the flu and pneumonia everyday but I refuse to live my life scared that I might die. To me that would be a stupid way to live your life.

A fairly obvious biological warfare attack that we have trained for for years in our military.

This type warfare is in it's infancy as far as it's deployment goes but there are very valuable lessons to be learned.

A virus with no known cure from China..

g

And you have the nerve to question anyone else's math skills? Even guessing like you they will miss a lot less than you just did.

So, is it gonna be worse than the Spanish Flu, or not?

Take a stand, or quit postin crap.

Had your balls dropped, you coulda actually included a fact that refuted what I posted.

Forget corona, see a doc bout your balls.

Randolph, it does well for us to remember what the Chinese people went through and what the Chinese gov't did to contain this virus and to get to this point. The residents of Wuhan have been locked inside their houses for weeks now. The region was quarantined and ringed by armed military units. Do you not believe that any person attempting to escape quarantine was shot?

We are not able to enact such control measures in this nation. And I would not wish to live here if we could. Some things are worse than even 10% of a nations population succumbing to a disease. And C-19 will not kill anywhere near 10% of Americans.

Okay DUMFUG, see if you are smart enough to understand this: It has the potential to be every bit as lethal world wide as H1N1 of 1918.

But with luck and proper control measures we may be able to contain it to lethality levels of H1N1 of 2009.

The American economy should be wrecked because it allegedly has the "potential" to kill as many people as a normal flu season?

It has the potential to do jack shat, but due to gullible morons being manipulated by the ministry of propaganda, it appears to be much more serious.

You're doin your part, but like sh itka deer, you got no balls.

Is it gonna be worse, or not?

Gettin a liberal ta take a stand's like tryin ta pick up mercury with tweezers.