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Deaths in Italy from the virus: 3,249.
Population of Italy (2019): ~60,550,000

3,249/60,550,000 = 0.0000536 % of total population.

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Originally Posted by longarm
Deaths in Italy from the virus: 3,249.
Population of Italy (2019): ~60,550,000

3,249/60,550,000 = 0.0000536 % of total population.


You've got this all wrong!
The mortality rate is 10% minimum!


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I'm more handsome than smart, but still the math doesn't seem all that hard! laugh

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Here's a math problem for you then.

A: Italy currently has 41, 035 cases of C-19. That number is doubling every four days. How long before it reaches 60,550,000?

B: Of the concluded cases in Italy 4,440 have recovered vs 3,405 dead. What is a patient's chance of survival?

C: Currently Italy has 2,498 cases of C- 19 listed as severe. Use your answer to B to calculate the number of soon to be dead.

D: Of the active cases (30,692), 2,498 of those are considered severe. What percentage of active cases are considered severe?

E: Using the answer to D, how many serious cases will there be when the active case load hits 25,000,000?

F: Using your answer to B times your answer to E, what can we expect as total fatality numbers in Italy?

G: Using your answer to A, on what date can we expect F to happen?


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Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

Last edited by LeroyBeans; 03/19/20.
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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Here's a math problem for you then.

A: Italy currently has 41, 035 cases of C-19. That number is doubling every four days. How long before it reaches 60,550,000?

B: Of the concluded cases in Italy 4,440 have recovered vs 3,405 dead. What is a patient's chance of survival?

C: Currently Italy has 2,498 cases of C- 19 listed as severe. Use your answer to B to calculate the number of soon to be dead.

D: Of the active cases (30,692), 2,498 of those are considered severe. What percentage of active cases are considered severe?

E: Using the answer to D, how many serious cases will there be when the active case load hits 25,000,000?

F: Using your answer to B times your answer to E, what can we expect as total fatality numbers in Italy?

G: Using your answer to A, on what date can we expect F to happen?

you numbers guys are so tedious...LOL


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I still contend that there is no known true number of actual CO-19 cases.
I understand the double/quadruple ratio, but no one knows how many have already basically 'been there, done that'[had it] and are now basically fine.
Another unknown is when it actually started and how many flew in and out of Wuhan prior to late Dec, 19


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Originally Posted by LeroyBeans
Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

It really hurts to be on the same side of the fence with our resident liberals on this one issue.

But facts is facts, and math don't lie.

Sincerely wish it weren't so.

But if just a couple come to understand that Trump has done the things he has done this week because ALL evidence indicated it was the right thing to do, I have accomplished my mission.


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Originally Posted by Raeford
I still contend that there is no known true number of actual CO-19 cases.
I understand the double/quadruple ratio, but no one knows how many have already basically 'been there, done that'[had it] and are now basically fine.
Another unknown is when it actually started and how many flew in and out of Wuhan prior to late Dec, 19



Agreed. There's reasonable cause for concern and appropriate measures, but I won't be pitching in to dig any pre-emptive mass graves just yet

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Hope Chef Boyardee is ok.


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Originally Posted by Tarquin
7 percent....24,700 confirmed cases and 1800 deaths. Do the math.


As of today (March 19), Johns Hopkins is reporting that Italy, with a population of 60,480,000 has 41,035 confirmed cases, with 3,405 deaths. These are numbers to date and will certainly rise. While this percentage of deaths/confirmed cases is slightly over 8%, it is very significant if you are in the 8%.

And, keep in mind that the number of confirmed cases continues to rise and deaths trail the number of cases (i.e., people get sick, then die afterward!).

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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Here's a math problem for you then.

A: Italy currently has 41, 035 cases of C-19. That number is doubling every four days. How long before it reaches 60,550,000?

B: Of the concluded cases in Italy 4,440 have recovered vs 3,405 dead. What is a patient's chance of survival?

C: Currently Italy has 2,498 cases of C- 19 listed as severe. Use your answer to B to calculate the number of soon to be dead.

D: Of the active cases (30,692), 2,498 of those are considered severe. What percentage of active cases are considered severe?

E: Using the answer to D, how many serious cases will there be when the active case load hits 25,000,000?

F: Using your answer to B times your answer to E, what can we expect as total fatality numbers in Italy?

G: Using your answer to A, on what date can we expect F to happen?


A: No one will never know how many cases of C-19 are, or were, in Italy. So it's impossible to know if the number is doubling or not.

B. Chance of survival is excellent. Always has been. In fact, Italy is gettin tired of bein used for hysterical propaganda purposes.

So, they told the truth about corona in Italy: Only 12 people have died from the corona virus alone. The rest had pre-existing serious health conditions, which is why they were in a nursing home. The great majority of them had several pre-existing serious health conditions. And they determined that having the virus only slightly increased a person's chance of dying. Just like the scientists in the US have discovered.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...have-other-serious-health-complications/

C: Very few will die, unless that have pre-existing health issues.

D: No one knows, or will ever know, how many active cases there are.

E: A tiny percentage, limited to those with pre-existing serious health issues.

F: Garbage in, garbage out. If you don;t use the correct figures, the answer will be incorrect.

G: The cold virus will run its course without having a dramatic effect.

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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by LeroyBeans
Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

It really hurts to be on the same side of the fence with our resident liberals on this one issue.

But facts is facts, and math don't lie.

Sincerely wish it weren't so.

But if just a couple come to understand that Trump has done the things he has done this week because ALL evidence indicated it was the right thing to do, I have accomplished my mission.


I agree that math doesn't lie. However sometimes the numbers plugged into equations are wrong and thus, the problem itself is wrong. For instance we see a lot of death rates that assume x number of infected people. The real numbers of infected people are not known, so one of the input numbers is wrong, so the death rate is wrong, even though the math is right.

Using math, which doesn't lie, please explain why China hasn't seen millions of people, out of their 5 billion or so, die. Using math, please explain why China's infection rate has dropped so much. China didn't start quarantines until after the cat was out of the bag.

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99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

The other 1% is probably smokers.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15770/smoking-coronavirus


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Originally Posted by acy
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by LeroyBeans
Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

It really hurts to be on the same side of the fence with our resident liberals on this one issue.

But facts is facts, and math don't lie.

Sincerely wish it weren't so.

But if just a couple come to understand that Trump has done the things he has done this week because ALL evidence indicated it was the right thing to do, I have accomplished my mission.


I agree that math doesn't lie. However sometimes the numbers plugged into equations are wrong and thus, the problem itself is wrong. For instance we see a lot of death rates that assume x number of infected people. The real numbers of infected people are not known, so one of the input numbers is wrong, so the death rate is wrong, even though the math is right.

Using math, which doesn't lie, please explain why China hasn't seen millions of people, out of their 5 billion or so, die. Using math, please explain why China's infection rate has dropped so much. China didn't start quarantines until after the cat was out of the bag.


Because China enforced quarantine at the muzzle of an AK 47, and deaths due to a 123 gr softpoint to the forehead do not count as viral death.


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Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by acy
Originally Posted by Idaho_Shooter
Originally Posted by LeroyBeans
Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

It really hurts to be on the same side of the fence with our resident liberals on this one issue.

But facts is facts, and math don't lie.

Sincerely wish it weren't so.

But if just a couple come to understand that Trump has done the things he has done this week because ALL evidence indicated it was the right thing to do, I have accomplished my mission.


I agree that math doesn't lie. However sometimes the numbers plugged into equations are wrong and thus, the problem itself is wrong. For instance we see a lot of death rates that assume x number of infected people. The real numbers of infected people are not known, so one of the input numbers is wrong, so the death rate is wrong, even though the math is right.

Using math, which doesn't lie, please explain why China hasn't seen millions of people, out of their 5 billion or so, die. Using math, please explain why China's infection rate has dropped so much. China didn't start quarantines until after the cat was out of the bag.


Because China enforced quarantine at the muzzle of an AK 47, and deaths due to a 123 gr softpoint to the forehead do not count as viral death.


China didn't start the quarantine until after the virus was pretty well established. My original question stands. Do you have any links or other real information on the number of people shot by the Chinese to enforce the quarantine, or do you simply not have an answer to either of my questions?

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As of 19th March [Global]

238,000 confirmed , 9800 deaths = 4%

Mortality rate by age:

10-19 = 0.2%
20-29 = 0.2%
30-39 = 0.2%
40-49 = 0.4%
50-59 = 1.3%
60-69 = 3.6%
70-79 = 8%
80+ = 14.8%


I suspect those on the CF constantly beating up the fear narrative fall in the 60 and over
pre-existing health condition category.


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Again, you're missing the point. With an unknown number of people infected globally there is no way you can fix a meaningful percentage re death rate.
And of those who died, how many were over 80? How many with pre-existing conditions?
Lastly, in my case you are wrong on both suppositions in your last sentence.

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Originally Posted by longarm
Again, you're missing the point. With an unknown number of people infected globally there is no way you can fix a meaningful percentage re death rate.
And of those who died, how many were over 80? How many with pre-existing conditions?
Lastly, in my case you are wrong on both suppositions in your last sentence.


Goin global, there's gotta be at least 2.3 million that got the cold.

Outta almost 8 billion.

So you can divide Starman's mortality numbers by 10.

At least.

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Originally Posted by longarm
.. With an unknown number of people infected globally there is no way you can
fix a meaningful percentage re death rate.


I didnt say anything about it being meaningful, but its sure to help sustain the fear and paranoia some have.

some get weird satisfaction out of things that seem to support their fears...the "I told you so" types...

the mental/emotional reactions to C19 are a barrel of laughs...


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