|
|
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 6,240
Campfire Tracker
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 6,240 |
I think it’s going to kill millions, and there’s nothing we can do about it. I do hope I’m wrong of course. This thing is just getting a foothold. You're likely not wrong, but on what timeframe? Covid-19 already has a greater foothold world-wide than SARS or MERS ever had. So I wonder if it will become a seasonal epidemic in the same way that influenza A has? But with an initial 10X+ higher mortality rate. If that is the case, then figure on what, 250-300K deaths a year in the USA? When testing becomes more widely available and more infected carriers identified, it’s gonna dilute the mortality rate by a bunch.
This. 40 times higher fatality rate than the flu? I really, really doubt that is remotely true. As of today, current covid-19 mortality rate worldwide is 6%. The estimate for influenza mortality rate in the USA is .1%. USA covid-19 mortality rate is currently 3%. So, covid-19 is significantly more deadly. Even if every single person that is now known to have the disease recovers, the mortality rate worldwide will only drop to just below 4%. Keep the same mortality rate of known cases, but double the estimated amount of cases due to under-reporting, and the true mortality rate drops to 3%. Again, much higher than seasonal Influenza. Now I'm not saying the sky is falling, but stating that concern over covid-19 is "much ado about nothing" is the reverse side of that particular idiot coin. Be cautious for the next month or so. Be especially cautious if you're over 70 or have any pre-existing health issues. P.S. I'm literally betting my life that in two months, the risk of dying from covid-19 in Asia will be extremely low. Just today booked a flight to HKG, then on to Nanning by high speed rail.
Last edited by Scott_Thornley; 03/11/20.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,666
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,666 |
we'll end up with another obligatory vaccine to add to the list, it does complicate things. Hopefully, the development and productin will be in the USA.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 42,697
Campfire 'Bwana
|
|
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 42,697 |
I hope Mr NAMBLA ( PaDDler the Pedophile) gets it.....
and his wife gets to cash that life insurance policy she's been paying on all these years.....
"Minus the killings, Washington has one of the lowest crime rates in the Country" Marion Barry, Mayor of Wash DC
“Owning guns is not a right. If it were a right, it would be in the Constitution.” ~Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 19,179
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 19,179 |
Scott said, ^^^^^
" As of today, current covid-19 mortality rate worldwide is 6%. The estimate for influenza mortality rate in the USA is .1%. USA covid-19 mortality rate is currently 3%."
-------------------------------------------
Scott - I COPIED these #s from CDC - last NIGHT>
*** From Another Thread ***
I posted:
Follow UP !
Today/tonight 3-11-20
The latest reports are:
1 The death rate from Covid 19 is....... .01% ( 1 %)
<** 2. World Wide Death from Covid is 4292 .** ( ADD 4292 is NOT 6% of world population.)
3 The CDC says that AT LEAST 20,000 have died from FLU.
Last edited by jwall; 03/12/20.
jwall- *** 3100 guy***
A Flat Trajectory is Never a Handicap
Speed is Trajectory's Friend !!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 207
Campfire Member
|
|
Campfire Member
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 207 |
As a physician i am embarrassed by my colleagues. Simple fact is the cruise ships are our 100% testing site. Only place everyone got tested. Death rate is lower than the flu. Older average age on the cruise ships than the general population. The stats are being twisted.
Actually doing something usually changes a persons previously worthless opinion
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,663
Campfire Outfitter
|
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,663 |
Broncos are officially the worst team in the nation this year.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521
Campfire Oracle
|
|
Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521 |
Went coyote hunting yesterday. Got out west of Monahans to Peyote and pulled in to a new truck stop to take a leak. Washing hands and a big strong bleck dude comes out of a stall and heads to the food counter. Sheesh.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521
Campfire Oracle
|
|
Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521 |
Maybe the death rate wasnt too high among the folks who got false positives and never actually had it.  Something like that could skew the stats.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,784
Campfire Regular
|
|
Campfire Regular
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,784 |
Sorry to be a downer or doubter.
Sorry about the formatting as this is in twitter-format.
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant
Jason Van Schoor
@jasonvanschoor
who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick 2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2. 4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.
I am also in the medical field, and share the sentiment. It is not a common cold, it much worse. Yes, the flu has killed more, but in a longer time-span and in general there is some residual immunity against flu (whether from vaccines or previous exposition). That means that in general the herd immunity is better, with COVID19 everyone is susceptible. In those affected it is an acute overhwelming pneumonia, and ICUs are saturated, that is what is going to collapse the system.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,229
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,229 |
I would venture to guess that a lot of people have already had it and gotten over it months ago.
It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,828
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,828 |
If any mention was made as to %population of the Diamond Princess which was never exposed to the virus due to quarantine within the ship, I have never found it. Also what % of passengers tested positive for C-19 antibodies when disembarked? Without those numbers we can learn little more about this contagion than is learned from general population.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,906
Campfire Tracker
|
|
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,906 |
I would venture to guess that a lot of people have already had it and gotten over it months ago. While talking to a friend in New Jersey last night he asked if there were a bunch of “abnormal bronchitis” cases diagnosed that people went to the dr 2-3 times for and nothing really touched it. I told him there was a lot of that from late Oct-Jan. A family member of his said in their opinion those abnormal cases were undiagnosed CV that people got over.
When I die I hope I don't start voting democrat.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,828
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,828 |
I would venture to guess that a lot of people have already had it and gotten over it months ago. Then where were the associated deaths of their aged or infirm family members? Where was the sudden escalation of C-19 infections as those so afflicted went about their regular business and spread it where ever they traveled? The huge, huge, majority of any who might suspect they had C-19 back in Dec or Jan had some form of the flu. We are all getting older, and the flu hits us harder each year. That is why I ask, So you think you had C-19 three months ago? But did you get your flu shot this winter?
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,449
Campfire Sage
|
|
Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,449 |
I would venture to guess that a lot of people have already had it and gotten over it months ago. Came down with the flu on Christmas Eve, and was sick for four or five days, followed by a long recovery process where I was doing a lot of productive coughing early on, which gradually faded over a few weeks. I have wondered if that could have been COVID19. Likely just the seasonal flu, though. One thing different about it was the severe joint pain that came on out of the blue the moment the standard flu symptoms appeared, and took a couple of months to disappear. For several days, I could barely lift my arms due to shoulder pain. Weird. Never had anything like that associated with the flu.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521
Campfire Oracle
|
|
Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521 |
Sorry to be a downer or doubter.
Sorry about the formatting as this is in twitter-format.
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant
Jason Van Schoor
@jasonvanschoor
who is currently in northern Italy: 1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick 2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2. 4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.
I am also in the medical field, and share the sentiment. It is not a common cold, it much worse. Yes, the flu has killed more, but in a longer time-span and in general there is some residual immunity against flu (whether from vaccines or previous exposition). That means that in general the herd immunity is better, with COVID19 everyone is susceptible. In those affected it is an acute overhwelming pneumonia, and ICUs are saturated, that is what is going to collapse the system. Doc, do you think JG is right about the possibility that a lot of people have already had it? Thanks.
Last edited by jaguartx; 03/23/20.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,653
Campfire Regular
|
|
Campfire Regular
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,653 |
I got it in November. Still the cough lingers. Crazy joint pain, chills, sweats you name it. Tested neg for the flu a and b
2 courses of anti biotics, 3 of steroids. Resorted to an inhaler a few times
GOD Bless America
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,795
Campfire Regular
|
|
Campfire Regular
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,795 |
As a physician i am embarrassed by my colleagues. Simple fact is the cruise ships are our 100% testing site. Only place everyone got tested. Death rate is lower than the flu. Older average age on the cruise ships than the general population. The stats are being twisted. Another fact that is not considered is the cruise ship. All of the support systems on a ship are unique. The sewers are pressure type. The water system is self-contained. The HVAC system has to comply with the ship sealed barrier system. There are lots of systems that could affect the environmental health.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,653
Campfire Regular
|
|
Campfire Regular
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,653 |
I do wonder. My mother got similar symptoms in Italy in the beginning of December. But according to the experts that was before all this started
I was sick before her thkugh
Last edited by Quak; 03/23/20.
GOD Bless America
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 19,557
Campfire Ranger
|
|
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 19,557 |
Only way to know if you had The Covid-19 and got over it without being identified, tested and confirmed while infected is to have an Anti-Body test done. Ain't no one gonna waste time and money on that right now.
I had a low grade fever, packed chest and dry unproductive cough for almost two weeks in January. Took another two weeks before I felt somewhat normal again.
Both my young 20 something daughters were home for the holidays before that and got sick between Christmas and New Years.
We all had our flu shots in the Fall.
I would suspect if that had been the Covid-19 then we would have seen a much higher surge in this county which is currently at 45 confirmed with two deaths six weeks ago.
"Maybe we're all happy."
"Go to the sporting goods store. From the files, obtain form 4473. These will contain descriptions of weapons and lists of private ownership."
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521
Campfire Oracle
|
|
Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,521 |
Hand wringers...... the sky is falling. Dude, I would love nothing more than for you to be right and to call us all out when this all blows over. I’ll happily take my licks with humility. This.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
|
|
|
|
|
76 members (35, 10Glocks, 14idaho, 6mmbrfan, 280shooter, 2500HD, 7 invisible),
1,597
guests, and
729
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Forums81
Topics1,190,599
Posts18,454,544
Members73,908
| |
Most Online11,491
Jul 7th, 2023
|
|
|
|
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/m0zk1a7.jpg)
