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China is the nation "on its knees" right now. They cannot easily survive a worldwide recession for more than a couple of months without changing who they wish to ally with.

Invading Taiwan now would be political suicide, unless Russia came to bail them out. And Russia would drive a hard bargain in that scenario.

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Originally Posted by DakotaDeer
China is the nation "on its knees" right now. They cannot easily survive a worldwide recession for more than a couple of months without changing who they wish to ally with.

Invading Taiwan now would be political suicide, unless Russia came to bail them out. And Russia would drive a hard bargain in that scenario.

Russia is in a oil price war with the Saudi’s. Probably over their support of Iran. Hasbeen


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Taiwan has nukes...China won't do anything

Taiwan also has a pretty stout little military...a lot of people don't know that


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China , Russia , etc are no match for the USA. In fact China and Russia allied are no match. They could cause some casualties and damage but they have no path to victory. Watching our troops fumble around in the third world with highly restricted ROE’s says nothing about our ability to engage in unrestricted warfare against a first world adversary. The results from bombing camel jockeys doesn't correlate to bombing the infrastructure of China or Russia. Blowing up the three gorges dam while full would e devastating to China. Russia doesn't have enough roads and bridges as it is. They’re countries with a lot to lose. There will be no war.


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Originally Posted by luv2safari
They've wanted to for decades, and now is their best opportunity to invade and take Taiwan. They see the US as weak in general and now on it's knees. Xi is in trouble internally and needs a war to hold power; he has little to lose and much to gain. He'll use the pandemic as a springboard, blaming the US for starting it.



Some others had the same idea. If they attacked us with this virus, and I'm convinced it was deliberate, they could take this opportunity to try for Taiwan.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/10/china-announces-preparation-military-struggle-taiwan/#


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That would be bad for business.

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Taiwan will put a hurting on the Chicoms if they would try to pull that stunt.






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Originally Posted by KenMi
Guess Wuhan won't start any more viruses if the temp goes up a few thousand degrees


Ken, a bit hotter then a few thousand... but point taken there will be no live bats anywhere.

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Originally Posted by kingston
Interesting times.
Ironically, yes.


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Originally Posted by Seafire
Originally Posted by kingston
Interesting times.


interesting wouldn't be the term I'd use.... interesting time is when you read about something in history.. NOT the present.


For many years I've been looking for the official list of times that haven't been interesting. Haven't found it.

Though some people say Calvin Coolidge was really boring.

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China is in deep [bleep] with the world right now. They know better..

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Originally Posted by luv2safari
They've wanted to for decades, and now is their best opportunity to invade and take Taiwan. They see the US as weak in general and now on it's knees. Xi is in trouble internally and needs a war to hold power; he has little to lose and much to gain. He'll use the pandemic as a springboard, blaming the US for starting it.


Nope. Not going to happen.

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Taiwan could put up more of a fight then many realize. Definately no walk in the park for the Chicoms. Besides the Chinese arent exactly the most beloved nation in the world right now, thanks to the C19. Especially dont think Putin would consider lifting a finger to help Beijing right now.

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Also dont think war is the top thing on the Chicoms mind right now. Believe they are more interested in being the fastest out of the gate for restarting manufacturing etc in the worldwide Covid 19 caused economic collapse to ensure the rest of the world remains dependent on their production.

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Originally Posted by Old_Toot
Originally Posted by IndyCA35
Originally Posted by luv2safari
They've wanted to for decades, and now is their best opportunity to invade and take Taiwan. They see the US as weak in general and now on it's knees. Xi is in trouble internally and needs a war to hold power; he has little to lose and much to gain. He'll use the pandemic as a springboard, blaming the US for starting it.


I wouldn't bet on it. About 10 years ago I had it on some authority that Taiwan had three nuclear weapons. That did not surprise me. After all, the South African government had built nukes when they still had Apartheid, we later learned. And both India and Pakistan had developed them in secret until each one detonated six tests.

China could easily conquer Taiwan. All it would cost them would be Beijing, Canton, and Shanghai. Worth the price?



South Africa came by those nukes via Israel during the apartheid years.


My friend was high up in the SADF special forces. Former recce in angola. In 1993 he was called back up and sent on a top secret mission for a few weeks. He later admitted he had escorted 6 or 7 special packages to Israel that they wanted to get rid of before the elections.

I was briefly questioned about it by 2 ex? CIA agents who were supposedly working as security advisers and wanted to ride with me in Soweto to see if it was still safe for missionaries. I just told them I knew him but didn't know anything about what he did. I didn't mention about how I worked out with him every day and had dinner with him and his wife sometimes 3 nights a week for 3 months.

I remember the week he just disappeared. His story was that he was just headed into the bush to hunt by himself for a few weeks. Didn't have anything with him when he left but claimed he'd just be living off the land like he did in angola. He was extremely tough real deal arnold looking guy. He later admitted it was a special mission with the mossad.

Tried to go see him last time I was in africa but he had been in a motorcycle wreck and was a quad in a care center now. Sad, he was an amazing guy and had done amazing things.

When I lived in Israel in 97 I met a high level military guy in the IDF who had claimed he trained with Hennie and helped SADF develop some of their security programs. Then told me that's all he would say and warned me not to ask IDF members about SADF members while in Israel.

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Tried to go see him last time I was in africa but he had been in a motorcycle wreck and was a quad in a care center now. Sad, he was an amazing guy and had done amazing things.


Probab'ly the strongest cautionary tale I've ever read re: motorcycling.


On the original topic, I have been enormously impressed with some Taiwanese folks who 's kids I've taught over the years.

Seems to me defending Taiwan is one of the more worthy causes we could get involved in, if we had to.

Heck, I'd be willing to die in their defense myself, tho given my present age and circumstance that amounts to just blowing smoke on my part.


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Chinese manufacturing can start anytime they like, but what western manufacturer is going to buy Chinese goods very far ahead of the date that they will actually be needed? They aren't going to send their cash reserves to China before they are up and running themselves. Without a market for their goods, there could be a lot of unemployed and hungry Chinese before too long.

People in every country will demand to know how COVID-19 started and what possessed the Chinese to lie and allow it to spread across the globe. The Chinese will be held accountable and it will hurt them. Personally, I'd ban anyone with a Chinese passport from entering the U.S. through at least 12/31/20 and I would require anyone who is currently in the U.S. on a non-diplomatic Chinese passport to leave within the next 30 days.

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The more the international community separates from China economically, the more volatile and dangerous China becomes.

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