Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Do You Believe This ? Fauci Warns 100-200K Americans Could Die!

Twenty five or so years ago I thought something was bound to happen that would be devastating to our way of life. About then I started reading books on survival, mostly rural living and self dependency. I live in the mountains around 6500 feet, small city 10 miles away.

I'm pretty much off the grid, I don't have solar for the home but can deal with that if needed, the well is on solar and it has a 1500 gallon storage tank, I can tap that electrical system when needed. Elk and deer are abundant within walking distance. I'm good for over a year without any animals, so I could extend the time with hunting.

I'm more than willing to help my neighbors if they need it. I doubt if this go around will take millions of Americans out, but next time will be worse. Learn form this experience and get ready.

When my internet goes out, I'm gonna be bored out of my mind.

I'll repeat what I said; he's 80 years old, an administrator & a political animal with very left Hitlery fan) leanings.

He is not in the mainstream of hands on medical or lab work; go get some of the people actually doing the lab work & analysis..........they will be current, accurate & far more believable than Fauci.

What he done in the past is in the past, it what he actually doing or not doing right now that matters.

And by the way GFY.

MM

buy a large type bible. plenty of reading for years and large type for older eyes and lower light.

Are those better eating?

Ok Jim, you can hang out in the bunker.... if you will provide Beav with varmint shootin opportunities.... he loves that chit and is a stone cold killer

China took 62 days to stop reporting, no corner was ever turned.

Washington State had it first.

It's peaked, and about over there.

World didn't end.

Same thing will happen in NY, and everywhere else.

NYC's driving this countries numbers. Once they peak our numbers will start looking a lot better.

Listen to the earnings calls from U.S companies with a large Chinese presence, Apple, Nike, Starbux, Yum Brands, etc. Apple's back to work, same for Nike. These are observable, measurable events and this data's not coming from the Chinese government, but U.S. companies responsible to U.S shareholders and accountable to U.S courts.

Just because we don't trust the Chinese Government, that doesn't mean there are not other ways to get at the data.

So...1-200,000 people are expected to die in America over a 10 month period.

Answer this. How many of those have died anyway?

True, these are big numbers and they represent, at least in part, additional deaths, BUT if you look at the probability of any one individual dying from COVID-19 out of a total population of 330,000,000 it is still less than 1%. That's not to say that each death isn't a tragedy for the deceased's family and friends.

In round numbers the probability of a random individual dying from COVID-19 looks something like this, assuming that I got the numbers and division right.

200,000 out of 330,000,000

600 out of every 1,000,000

60 out of every 100,000

6 out of every 10,000

1 out of every 1,650

What I don't understand is how a densely packed country like China could have so many fewer cases and deaths.

At this rate, the NYC metro area with 20,100,000 residents could see a death toll from COVID-19 of around 12,000. I wonder how many people die in the NYC metro area on an average day from anything/everything other than COVID-19?

75K to 175K

The term you are looking for is "excess deaths".

How many "excess deaths" will there be attributable to COVID-19.

From the nursing home in Washington State, the answer if probably close to zero.

Right, but they will be counted as Corona Virus deaths with no mention that strangely the deaths from other causes are down for the same period.

Umm, the military just showed up to set up on station med facility in Seahawks stadium.

Thinking it ain’t over there.

Why haven’t you given your plasma as a way to make a treatment?

You kicked its ass, or was that hay fever you beat with a Claritin?

😎

In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the age-adjusted death rate for the total population decreased 1.1%, and life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year. Age-specific death rates between 2017 and 2018 decreased for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

My Seattle suburb zip code just started getting data.

I can calculate the doubling rate the easy way from two data points. Everyone else will lead you on a goose chase solving an exponential equation. .

New/corrected data:
3/25/2020 21
3/27/2020 31
3/28/2020 35
3/29/2020 39


4 days ln [double =2] / ln (39/21) = doubling time

2.77/ .619 = doubling in 4.5 days

Living in NY, I'm watching the local news and they are turning Aquaduct Racetrack facilities into a temporary hospital. Dr.s and nurses are working around the clock. Retired Drs and medical students are being asked to pitch in. My son works for a medical college and many of the students are volunteering their time. My niece is a nurse who was working as a nursing teacher and was asked to help out at the hospital. My sister is making surgical masks. We have over 1,000 dead here in just the past 10 days. People, this is no joke. Even here I'm seeing people much too close and not observing distancing protocols. Also, this is not just killing the old with other medical conditions, otherwise healthy young people have died from it. This is NOT like the regular flu as this thing hits an area hard and all at once. The bodies pile up quickly and it takes resources away from people who might need assistance/care for other medical issues. If people don't take every measure to prevent getting infected, the numbers could easily reach the projected numbers. It's like what Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky punk?"

Simple math, if nothing was done, the death toll would be like a flu season. about 35,000 at 0.1% rate, COVOD-19 kills at a rate of 0.6% so 6x 35,000= 210,000. The 0.6% is from South Korea , other countries report higher rates.