I think we will see double than before we level off and start seeing a decline. Then what? This thing is ready to come roaring back when we let off the gas.
While still serious, I see two things that should mitigate another mass blow up.
First, once the chain of transmission in epidemics is broken the numbers always drop. If we use influenza as a parallel, you will see that April is the historic end to flu season. Spring Break closes schools, warm weather weakens the viruses. People still get the flu later, but the numbers drop here after April.
The other factor that seems to go unnoticed is that as the virus circulates and people are exposed, people develop antibodies rendering them immune and incapable of transmitting the disease. As greater numbers of people develop antibodies, less people can contract or spread the virus. That is a permanent break in the chain of transmission. Those people don't need to be sheltered. They are free to resume ordinary activities and are not at risk and not a threat to spread the disease.
Again, we can't be sure, but we have data and procedures from other diseases and these procedures always work in isolating and containing. Therefore my guarded "optimism" that we will not see an Italy thing here with 200,000 dead. We are doing effective procedures. We have a better healthcare system. I am glad for both.
