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I know this could invoke a rather lengthy thread with all types of responses, BUT, I have wondered about this for years.
Virtually all of my center fire rifles will shoot a 3-shot group with 2 shots almost touching and one off a fair ways.Sometimes that fair ways is only a quarter inch while the other two are nearly in the same hole but it is definitely off. And, Sometimes it’s the first shot that flys off, sometimes it’s the second, sometimes it’s the third. Sometimes it’s vertical, sometimes it’s horizontal, sometimes it’s diagonal. YES, I have gotten nice, tight triangular clusters, but those are only about 25% or less of the time with most rifles. I have this same result with custom barreled rifles from barrel makers everyone here has heard of and I have it happen with factory. Here is the kicker though, I almost never have it happen with my three Savage bolt action rifles but maybe a few times out of 50 groups....
Since I have the convenience of loading ammo only 30’ from my shooting table at my home, I have many times went back in my office and reloaded 2, 3 or more of the same exact rounds, with nearly identical results more often than not.
I would like to hear what other’s have to theorize on this subject.

My own personal thoughts are this:
I do not believe there is any way possible to get the initial bore “perfectly straight and true” through the center of any barrel. I see this problem being compounded with smaller diameter bores. In my mind it is physically impossible. I do believe that maybe “hammer forged barrels might be more immune to this since the barrel is hammer forged around an already existing and assumed straight machined mandrel but to me, this process is also suspect.
On a conventional barrel, it is physically impossible to insure that the initial bore is perfectly straight. We are only talking thousandth of an inch here. There are hard/spots spots in all steel and I see no way to physically insure the hole inside the barrel is straight and true without cutting the barrel into pieces and measuring. Again, the smaller the bore and longer the barrel, the harder it has to be.
Yes the external portion of the barrel can be measured but not the inside and YES there have been many more barrels than one that have made it out the door with the bore straight and true, but in my mind these are more of a coincidence than anything else. The inside can be measured for uniformity in dimensions but not for straightness by any method that I am aware of.
If the barrel is not straight and true inside, then it has to heat up and vibrate differently with each shot thus causing the shots to deviate.
These are my thoughts. I am curious to see what others think.

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IMO, 3 shots does not make a group. Shoot at least 5 or more to see the true potential of the barrel/load combo. Just getting lucky that two are touching in the 3 shot group.


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The bullet has to leave the barrel at the same point in the vibration. The barrel is piece of steel that should vibrate the same way given the same conditions. All else being equal, I can't see a nonconcentric borehole causing a non-repeatable vibration pattern, something would have to be loose in the system to cause variable vibration.


Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
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Originally Posted by TRnCO
IMO, 3 shots does not make a group. Shoot at least 5 or more to see the true potential of the barrel/load combo. Just getting lucky that two are touching in the 3 shot group.


As I have stated in my OP, I have shot more than 3 shots following those 3 shot groups many times. The results, more often than not were pretty much the same with sometimes the flyer just being closer or farther away or even in a different direction. I have often followed up with another 3 shot group following the first 3 shot group, which would make it a 6 shot group (just at another target on the same piece of paper) Same results quite often.

Mauser9mm; If the bore is thinner at any point inside the barrel, then it would heat up faster at the thinnest part, which would shift the barrel slightly in the other direction, even mid-way.. Have that same problem throughout the barrel and it could significantly change the harmonics, not to mention the direction of the muzzle slightly. Yes, it is splitting hairs but a very possible explanation I would think.

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With 3-shot groups, odds are that two of the three shots will land closer together. The same thing occurs when you gently drop three pennies on a soft surface.

Which is why 5-shot groups are far more indicative of the load's actual average accuracy.


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I get that MD, but why almost the same pattern on follow up groups many times, almost the size? As i stated, I have shot followups immediately afterwards and get almost the same thing, Not always but often and not all that many good triangular groups except with the Savages..... which are more often than not.

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Originally Posted by SoTexCurdog
Originally Posted by TRnCO
IMO, 3 shots does not make a group. Shoot at least 5 or more to see the true potential of the barrel/load combo. Just getting lucky that two are touching in the 3 shot group.


...

Mauser9mm; If the bore is thinner at any point inside the barrel, then it would heat up faster at the thinnest part, which would shift the barrel slightly in the other direction, even mid-way.. Have that same problem throughout the barrel and it could significantly change the harmonics, not to mention the direction of the muzzle slightly. Yes, it is splitting hairs but a very possible explanation I would think.


Temperature would be a factor anyway with a concentric barrel - changing the length slightly. Maybe there is something in what you are saying except wouldn't the thinner section also cool off quicker (metal is an excellent thermal conductor) and reach the same temp as the rest of it?


Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
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Originally Posted by SoTexCurdog
I know this could invoke a rather lengthy thread with all types of responses, BUT, I have wondered about this for years.
Virtually all of my center fire rifles will shoot a 3-shot group with 2 shots almost touching and one off a fair ways.Sometimes that fair ways is only a quarter inch while the other two are nearly in the same hole but it is definitely off. And, Sometimes it’s the first shot that flys off, sometimes it’s the second, sometimes it’s the third. Sometimes it’s vertical, sometimes it’s horizontal, sometimes it’s diagonal. YES, I have gotten nice, tight triangular clusters, but those are only about 25% or less of the time with most rifles. I have this same result with custom barreled rifles from barrel makers everyone here has heard of and I have it happen with factory. Here is the kicker though, I almost never have it happen with my three Savage bolt action rifles but maybe a few times out of 50 groups....
Since I have the convenience of loading ammo only 30’ from my shooting table at my home, I have many times went back in my office and reloaded 2, 3 or more of the same exact rounds, with nearly identical results more often than not.
I would like to hear what other’s have to theorize on this subject.

My own personal thoughts are this:
I do not believe there is any way possible to get the initial bore “perfectly straight and true” through the center of any barrel. I see this problem being compounded with smaller diameter bores. In my mind it is physically impossible. I do believe that maybe “hammer forged barrels might be more immune to this since the barrel is hammer forged around an already existing and assumed straight machined mandrel but to me, this process is also suspect.
On a conventional barrel, it is physically impossible to insure that the initial bore is perfectly straight. We are only talking thousandth of an inch here. There are hard/spots spots in all steel and I see no way to physically insure the hole inside the barrel is straight and true without cutting the barrel into pieces and measuring. Again, the smaller the bore and longer the barrel, the harder it has to be.
Yes the external portion of the barrel can be measured but not the inside and YES there have been many more barrels than one that have made it out the door with the bore straight and true, but in my mind these are more of a coincidence than anything else. The inside can be measured for uniformity in dimensions but not for straightness by any method that I am aware of.
If the barrel is not straight and true inside, then it has to heat up and vibrate differently with each shot thus causing the shots to deviate.
These are my thoughts. I am curious to see what others think.


I think that you have good thoughts.


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SoTexCurdog,

I still don't think you've done enough shooting to prove anything, or groups with enough shots.

There are a bunch of possible reasons that might have happened, including barrel attachment, bedding, scopes, etc. But I would have to try 5-shot groups before guessing Savages have some magic quality that results in "good triangular groups."

You also might want to read my recent article on rifle-barrel heat treating in RIFLE magazine.


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Sorry MD, but I never said that the Savages had magic qualities. Just said they shot more uniform and “tend” not to have the 2 close, one flyer thing going on.
And again, this is not always true with them either..... just more often than not.
I also shoot a lot and have said that I often shoot a follow-up group of 3 shots, which would make it 6 shot groups, not just 5 as you suggest. Again, often the same results occur. FYI, many of my rifles have been bedded by 2 of the best. I have upper middle class to moderate optics, i.e. Zeiss Conquest, Leupold Vari-X, Meopta to the lowly Burris and Bushnell and Nikon Monarch.
I know that I don’t have near as many rifles as many of you guys do as I only have somewhere between 40-50 centerfires.
I am NOT trying to promote the Savages nor any other brand or barrel maker but just trying to figure out why these barrels react the way they do.
I am not trying to put down custom barrel makers or high end rifle makers.

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I may be a simpleton but there’s enough variables between barrels, components, weather conditions and operator error that unless a rifle doesn’t shoot minute of animal or shoots significantly worse than it usually does I don’t worry about it. To do otherwise is like the old philosophers arguing about how many angels could fit the n the head of a pin. Some folks may like dealing with that but I’d rather just shoot and hunt

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Turn your seating stem in 1/4 turn and try another group. Keep turning the stem in 1/4 turn at a time and see if the flyers move to the other two.


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Originally Posted by Kellywk
I may be a simpleton but there’s enough variables between barrels, components, weather conditions and operator error that unless a rifle doesn’t shoot minute of animal or shoots significantly worse than it usually does I don’t worry about it. To do otherwise is like the old philosophers arguing about how many angels could fit the n the head of a pin. Some folks may like dealing with that but I’d rather just shoot and hunt



I dont reload, just shoot factory stuff...but this mirrors my attitude. When I see 2 bullets have literally made one hole and a third has hit an inch out.....i'm thinking my hold and trigger pull were consistent on 2 of the 3 attempts. There are instances where 3 shots are touching and a 4th has wandered. I'm making scope adjustments on the 3 shot cluster and blaming myself on the wild one. It's not an awful problem to have in my humble opinion which may be influenced this evening by Henry McKenna.

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Originally Posted by SCgman1
….. When I see 2 bullets have literally made one hole and a third has hit an inch out.....i'm thinking my hold and trigger pull were consistent on 2 of the 3 attempts. There are instances where 3 shots are touching and a 4th has wandered. I'm making scope adjustments on the 3 shot cluster and blaming myself on the wild one. ....


Could be right but you might be selling yourself short. I've sometimes thought the same thing and thought I have lost it, but then shoot one of my "reliable accuracy" rifles and they show that my technique is okay.


Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
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Originally Posted by SoTexCurdog

And again, this is not always true with them either..... just more often than not.
I also shoot a lot and have said that I often shoot a follow-up group of 3 shots, which would make it 6 shot groups, not just 5 as you suggest. Again, often the same results occur.


If you super imposed each target over the others do the two shots close to each other without the "flier" always land in the same point of impact repeatedly. In other words if you stacked ten of your 3 shot group targets together would 20 shots land in the same spot with 10 random flyers outside the main group?

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Thin barrels that heat up quickly will typically shoot two touching, then fliers, each subsequent shot further than the one before as the barrel gets warmer/hotter. I have an old sporterized Model 96 that I turned down similar to a Win FW and it does that with every load I've tried over the years, and in three different stocks.


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The OPs original post said that it could be any of the three shots, not necessarily getter hotter but different temperatures.

SoTexCurdog, does that mean if you let the barrel cool sufficiently between all 3 shots that they all group together?


Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
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I still think the goal is for the first shot, cold, to hit where the scope says it should.


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Originally Posted by TRnCO
IMO, 3 shots does not make a group. Shoot at least 5 or more to see the true potential of the barrel/load combo. Just getting lucky that two are touching in the 3 shot group.


The trouble with 3 shot groups


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
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Originally Posted by SoTexCurdog
Sorry MD, but I never said that the Savages had magic qualities. Just said they shot more uniform and “tend” not to have the 2 close, one flyer thing going on.
And again, this is not always true with them either..... just more often than not.
I also shoot a lot and have said that I often shoot a follow-up group of 3 shots, which would make it 6 shot groups, not just 5 as you suggest. Again, often the same results occur. FYI, many of my rifles have been bedded by 2 of the best. I have upper middle class to moderate optics, i.e. Zeiss Conquest, Leupold Vari-X, Meopta to the lowly Burris and Bushnell and Nikon Monarch.
I know that I don’t have near as many rifles as many of you guys do as I only have somewhere between 40-50 centerfires.
I am NOT trying to promote the Savages nor any other brand or barrel maker but just trying to figure out why these barrels react the way they do.
I am not trying to put down custom barrel makers or high end rifle makers.


Sounds like your loads or your abilities are lacking to me... I'll go even further and suggest shooting 10 shot groups for an even better evaluation. You likely don't really know the full potential of said loads and rifles, if you are not holding your rifles in a ransom rest, if you do not have the skill to properly shoot a tight group.


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
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Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
The OPs original post said that it could be any of the three shots, not necessarily getter hotter but different temperatures.

SoTexCurdog, does that mean if you let the barrel cool sufficiently between all 3 shots that they all group together?


Yes, it has appeared to on more than one occasion.

Also, sometime ago I read about and tried a load development method called OCW. I believe it is an acronym for “Optimal Charge Weight), where you basically do that same thing but shoot one shot of a progressive charge weight at “X” number of targets for each load you have. You end up shooting the same 3 loads at the same particular target but you don’t shoot the same load in succession, it progresses then you come back full circle and shoot another progressive string until all three loads have been fired at the same target.
Anyway when I tried this OCW method, I allowed the barrel to cool to ambient temperature before each shot, and the 2 tight shots/one flyer grouping seemed to disappear for the most part.
I also need to mention that none of my rifles are bull barrels but are of various sporter contours with the only exceptions being 2 Winchester M-70 Coyotes with what the factory calls a medium bull barrel. These two rifles also seem to buck the “2 tight shots/one flyer thing, but again, not always.
I agree with MD that there are so many variables but this type of grouping happens far too often with too much consistency in so many of the same rifles even after having tinkered with the stocks, scopes, loads, etc. I have spoken with and seen it happen to other shooters as well.
Back in the 1980s I had a 270 W. that I hunted with, every year before hunting season I would take that rifle out and fire one shot at at 100 yards and one shot at a 200 yard target. Every time I did so that rifle would put the shot at dead center at exactly 3 inches high at 100 and approximately 3-1/2” high at 200 yards. It never failed to do so. I went out and shot my limit of deer without missing a shot. After about 5 or 6 years I decided to do some target shooting with some remaining reloads I had. When I did I quickly found that this particular rifle didn’t keep that same accuracy with the additional shots. It did the same 2 tight/one flyer thing. But instead of the first two shots being in a tight group, the second and third shots literally went southXsouthwest and dropped down and left a good inch and half at 100 and slightly more at 200. After letting the rifle cool a spell, I fired another string and ditto, same thing with virtually the same identical pattern. It did that several times in a row. Now, it could be said that existing barrel fouling caused that to happen but I vigorously cleaned the barrel with the predominant solvents of those days (Hopes #9/Shooter’s Choice and some JB Bore paste) and fired some more 3 shot groups. But it didn’t make any substantial difference. The groups were pretty much the same.

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Are you going to move away from 3 shot groups?

I suggest 9 shot or even more - if you end up at 6 shots and the rifle does the same, maybe it's not a flyer, that's just how the rifle shoots.

I chased the flyer in a Tikka for a while. Removed the stock bumps, new lug and some other things. Then I started 10 to 15 shot groups and the fliers were part of the big picture. Truth is, it's not a .2 or .3 rifle, it's just a MOA rifle over the 15 shots...and that is ok.

Also, I think one of my Lyman manuals has an article about shooting a group on a clean target and keeping it. Each subsequent trip to the range, overlay your new target on the old. It will show, over time, the true accuracy of the rifle through all conditions.

Last edited by Rifles And More; 04/29/20.

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Shoot your last shot first and see if that makes a difference.

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This question of throwing the third shot out of a group was asked in a post a few years back. I don't remember the campfire member who offered a solution to this dilemma as he suggested seating the bullets a few thousands deeper. I do recall the original poster could offer a reason seating bullets deeper worked... but it did.

I was working up loads for a Savage 99 at the time that consistently threw the third shot out of a 3 shot group. For my next test loads I seated the bullets a few thousands
deeper and the 3rd shot issue out of group issue was gone. Over all the 3 shot group tightened up into a wonderful 3 shot clover leaf if I did my job with a typical Savage 99 trigger.

Your results may vary....just sharing mine.

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Originally Posted by Offshoreman
Thin barrels that heat up quickly will typically shoot two touching, then fliers, each subsequent shot further than the one before as the barrel gets warmer/hotter. I have an old sporterized Model 96 that I turned down similar to a Win FW and it does that with every load I've tried over the years, and in three different stocks.

I have a 6.5x55 with a Krieger #1 barrel that exhibits this pattern when I fire three rounds back to back to back. Need to take it out on a calm cool day and let the barrel cool between rounds to see if it mitigates the issue. If that settles out, will try 5 shot groups...


Originally Posted by bushrat
... If you super imposed each target over the others do the two shots close to each other without the "flier" always land in the same point of impact repeatedly. In other words if you stacked ten of your 3 shot group targets together would 20 shots land in the same spot with 10 random flyers outside the main group?

I have considered trying a variation of this a couple times. Permanently fix a target to a target backer. Tape another target over top of it. Shoot a 3 shot group. Remove and replace the top target, Shoot another 3 shot group. Rinse and repeat 5 times. Measure the "15 shot group" on the original target. Rinse and repeat 5 more times. Measure the "30 shot group". Draw comparisons to the average of the 3 shot groups...

If anyone has done this ^^^^^^ and can post a link, would be appreciative...



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I agree with the above..move the bullets deeper in the case neck, I do .005thos. at a move. Powder charge stays the same. Remember to change only ONE thing at a time. And IME a three shot group is enough for one string, for lots of reasons. BTB, do you call your shots?

Each rifle is as individual as people, no matter who makes it or if they came off the line one behind the other. Load for them with that thought in mind.
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Originally Posted by mauserand9mm
The OPs original post said that it could be any of the three shots, not necessarily getter hotter but different temperatures.

SoTexCurdog, does that mean if you let the barrel cool sufficiently between all 3 shots that they all group together?


Maybe yes, but that also give time for the temp and wind to change.

I agree with liking the results of several 3 shot groups over a 5 shot group. Rarely do I ever shoot more than a couple times in a row at game - so I want to know where the first one for sure goes, then the next couple are also of interest. Many days I will have several groups at the range. I keep the targets and have looked at them the next day or two. What i thought was crap at the range was actually <1" and often 1/2 of that - just not all touching. Probably plenty good for my intended purpose.

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Originally Posted by Orion2000
Originally Posted by Offshoreman
Thin barrels that heat up quickly will typically shoot two touching, then fliers, each subsequent shot further than the one before as the barrel gets warmer/hotter. I have an old sporterized Model 96 that I turned down similar to a Win FW and it does that with every load I've tried over the years, and in three different stocks.

I have a 6.5x55 with a Krieger #1 barrel that exhibits this pattern when I fire three rounds back to back to back. Need to take it out on a calm cool day and let the barrel cool between rounds to see if it mitigates the issue. If that settles out, will try 5 shot groups...


Originally Posted by bushrat
... If you super imposed each target over the others do the two shots close to each other without the "flier" always land in the same point of impact repeatedly. In other words if you stacked ten of your 3 shot group targets together would 20 shots land in the same spot with 10 random flyers outside the main group?

I have considered trying a variation of this a couple times. Permanently fix a target to a target backer. Tape another target over top of it. Shoot a 3 shot group. Remove and replace the top target, Shoot another 3 shot group. Rinse and repeat 5 times. Measure the "15 shot group" on the original target. Rinse and repeat 5 more times. Measure the "30 shot group". Draw comparisons to the average of the 3 shot groups...

If anyone has done this ^^^^^^ and can post a link, would be appreciative...


Geez that sounds boring. Why not just shoot a couple 10 shot groups so you can see what you and your rifle are really capable of. Also, when you shoot more shots per group (lets say 10), you'll find out where your true poi is. A lot of you guys wont shy away from your 3 shot group theories or phobias.


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
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I just don't understand the reluctance to accept the easy proven fact that a couple of three-shot groups are unreliable predictors of the true accuracy potential of a rifle or load. I often use three-shot groups but only to check a rifles zero.

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I have been playing with some 30-06 loads recently and noticed that every load I try with RL 17 or Hunter shoots two touching and one "flyer", but usually within an inch. However, any load I try with RL26 shoots into an equilateral triangle. I saw this both with multiple 180 AB loads and 190 ABLR loads.

I have heard to seat bullet deeper if you get two tight and a flyer, and seat longer, but the pattern above came from same seating depths; just different powders and different chargers.

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There's nothing wrong with 3 shot groups provided they stay in the same place and you shoot enough of them. If you don't, they will not tell you much that's useful.

The barrel vibration consideration is real an can quite easily be what you are seeing. Some rifles will have issues with tuning a load. I have a 25-06 that does what you describe but throws bigger groups with Barnes 100 grain bullets. Careful testing with that rifle established it's preferred seating depth with those bullets, but no way in hell could I bring that rifle below an inch after trying half a dozen or maybe a couple more powders as long as I tried to bring the velocity in at near max pressure. It always tended to 2 and 1 groups and they wandered some. I bought some factory ammo for super cheap to get the brass and bullets. I decided to shoot some to see what it did. It shot very nice groups that didn't wander, but at about 250 FPS below what the rifle is capable of. Measuring showed the exact same seating depth I had found the rifle liked. Testing at that velocity with several powders proved any of them could produce groups down near a starting charge.

Pretty reasonable evidence that barrel vibration was the issue. I tried a rubber donut on the barrel to see if maybe I could compensate and get my 250 FPS back, but no luck.

I would look at seating depth as an issue first if you are confident of a good load. Load development can get expensive if you have problems, so, just look at your fliers as part of the group and assume those fliers are part of the group and that a 5 or 10 shot group would maybe have half of it as "fliers". If there' any evidence of the group wandering, that has to be considered as part of the group as well. If you are certain of the seating depth your rifle likes then work with the charge and go carefully from starting load up to max. If that doesn't solve it, try a different powder. Sometimes just moving that pressure peak just a little earlier or later will look like a miracle just happened. I have never found a way to illuminate my guesses about whether a slightly faster or slower powder will solve my problem(s) Similarly, with monos which I have found can be very touchy about seating depth in some rifles. Cheapest for me has worked out to be if they won't shoot at the starting depth I just move up close to the lands and then work back in .010 increments. Some rifles are easy. Some rifles are hard. I have learned that it's not my choice which rifle I am working with. About 2-4 per cent of the rifles I have solved are "difficult" if you want a given rifle to shoot a given bullet. Sometimes it's easier to change bullets.

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I wonder what number of shots per group Billy Dixon used in developing his load.


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Originally Posted by bushrat
Originally Posted by SoTexCurdog

And again, this is not always true with them either..... just more often than not.
I also shoot a lot and have said that I often shoot a follow-up group of 3 shots, which would make it 6 shot groups, not just 5 as you suggest. Again, often the same results occur.


If you super imposed each target over the others do the two shots close to each other without the "flier" always land in the same point of impact repeatedly. In other words if you stacked ten of your 3 shot group targets together would 20 shots land in the same spot with 10 random flyers outside the main group?


SoTexCurdog,

In my opinion I think this is the question to answer. If the two shots that are close together are not at the same point of impact on the target as all the other 3 shot groups, then it would just be bullets landing randomly inside a circle of true accuracy potential.
In other words, if the two close shots don’t repeatedly land in the same point of impact for multiple groups, then you can’t consider the other shots “flyers”.



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The indian is part of this equation, not just the arrow... laugh


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Originally Posted by cotis
The indian is part of this equation, not just the arrow... laugh


No, but the type of wood used for the arrow shaft, where it grew under what conditions as well as its # of times being shot, which species of bird provided the fletching for the feathers, the age of the bird, the conditions under which the feathers were acquired, the stone used to make the arrow head, how it was knapped, who did the knapping are all vital parts of the whole. And, this does not even take into account all of the variables that went into the making of the bow.


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ST Curdog,

As suggested above, go shoot some 10 shot groups. The two touching with one out will probably turn into a uniform cloud at 10 shots.

Alternately, from a statistically standpoint the best tool for identifying your overall level of variance with the fewest shots is 2, 5 shots groups.

If you are going to use 3 shot groups you need at least 3 preferable 5 CONSECUTIVE groups to give a decent statistical results. That doesn't mean shoot 5 groups and take the best, but all groups need to be considered together in context as a single body of work....or you are just fooling yourself.


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Fooling ourselves is a very large part of shooting/handloading.


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Originally Posted by cotis
The indian is part of this equation, not just the arrow... laugh

Bingo!

The thread reads of so many potential mechanical variables while ignoring human error. lol


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Originally Posted by RickyD
Originally Posted by cotis
The indian is part of this equation, not just the arrow... laugh

Bingo!

The thread reads of so many potential mechanical variables while ignoring human error. lol


In my opinion, when using more shots to make a better judge of accuracy, that includes taking the shooters ability into consideration.
If 10 shot groups are consistently not bigger than X in size, I think that accounts for everything.

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Originally Posted by bsa1917hunter
Originally Posted by Orion2000
Originally Posted by Offshoreman
Thin barrels that heat up quickly will typically shoot two touching, then fliers, each subsequent shot further than the one before as the barrel gets warmer/hotter. I have an old sporterized Model 96 that I turned down similar to a Win FW and it does that with every load I've tried over the years, and in three different stocks.

I have a 6.5x55 with a Krieger #1 barrel that exhibits this pattern when I fire three rounds back to back to back. Need to take it out on a calm cool day and let the barrel cool between rounds to see if it mitigates the issue. If that settles out, will try 5 shot groups...


Originally Posted by bushrat
... If you super imposed each target over the others do the two shots close to each other without the "flier" always land in the same point of impact repeatedly. In other words if you stacked ten of your 3 shot group targets together would 20 shots land in the same spot with 10 random flyers outside the main group?

I have considered trying a variation of this a couple times. Permanently fix a target to a target backer. Tape another target over top of it. Shoot a 3 shot group. Remove and replace the top target, Shoot another 3 shot group. Rinse and repeat 5 times. Measure the "15 shot group" on the original target. Rinse and repeat 5 more times. Measure the "30 shot group". Draw comparisons to the average of the 3 shot groups...

If anyone has done this ^^^^^^ and can post a link, would be appreciative...


Geez that sounds boring. Why not just shoot a couple 10 shot groups so you can see what you and your rifle are really capable of. Also, when you shoot more shots per group (lets say 10), you'll find out where your true poi is. A lot of you guys wont shy away from your 3 shot group theories or phobias.

Yeah. I am a boring kinda guy. But curious. Just firing two 10 shot strings does not satisfy the curiosity of "If I shoot a number of 3 shot strings, what size 5 shot string would I normally expect?" Or, "What size 10 shot string would I expect?"

Spent six years doing technical and consumer research, and statistical analysis of the resultant data. Curious to see if it is possible to extrapolate 3 shot group size to 5 shot group size to 10 shout group size, etc.



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Originally Posted by Orion2000

Spent six years doing technical and consumer research, and statistical analysis of the resultant data. Curious to see if it is possible to extrapolate 3 shot group size to 5 shot group size to 10 shout group size, etc.


The general guide line is 1/2" 3 shot groups = 0.75" 5 shot groups = 1" 10 shot groups.

In other words, what most shooter call 1/2" guns are actually 1" guns.


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Originally Posted by antelope_sniper
Originally Posted by Orion2000

Spent six years doing technical and consumer research, and statistical analysis of the resultant data. Curious to see if it is possible to extrapolate 3 shot group size to 5 shot group size to 10 shout group size, etc.


The general guide line is 1/2" 3 shot groups = 0.75" 5 shot groups = 1" 10 shot groups.

In other words, what most shooter call 1/2" guns are actually 1" guns.


Im in agreement. You see it a lot here. Maybe not as much as before, but still see it. I actually saw a post today in the africa hunting forum where a guy made the comment about having an honest 1/2" 308, but when he was asked to verify by the guide or ph, the rifle shot 1". Now, im sure it was also a 3 shot group he shot, so that particular "honest 1/2" rifle is probably closer to an honest 1 1/2" rifle. Truth be told....guys like to talk their chidt up all the time. It even happens in the real world. Had a guy tell me he was going to "cut the x-ring out" of the target with his 308 in a centerfire match once. I told him maybe we should lay a hundy down on that. It didnt happen. He barely shot a 99. My measly score of 100-9x would have won the money, had he been dumb enough to lay the money down.


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
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Light barrel contours may in many cases be more capable than you'd think. I put a Rem 700 Mountain Rifle barreled action into a 5R Milspec stock and it shot very well. The stock has much better "bag manners" than the MR stock.

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As mentioned earlier, many should read my article on heat-treating barrels, recently published RIFLE. Even the tight-contour barrels that so many shooters still believe "walk" due to warming with more than one shot do NOT, because most are correctly stress-relieved these days.

As stated in the article, waiting a while between shoot tends to enlarge groups, for two reasons: You probably won't be holding the rifle in a similar way, and wind conditions have changed. This is exactly why many target shooters rattle off shots during the same "wind conditions."

Also, most "hunderd-yard hunters" (as somebody recently called most handloaders) never put out wind flags. As a result, they have no clue whether the 1st, 2nd or 3rd shot was tripped off during different "wind conditions," which can affect bullets far more than most would guess at 100 yards. (And no, "hunderd" is not a typo.)

As my article mentions, a barrel "walking" as it heats up can be due to other factors, including barrel bedding, and how well its fitted to the action. But no, properly heat-treated barrels (even very light ones) should not shoot to different places as they started heating up--certainly not within the first three shots. (One of the LEAST stable barrels I've ever fired was a really heavy "varmint" .22-250 barrel on a brand of factory rifle known for good accuracy. Within 3-4 shots it would start shooting higher and to the right.)

As I noted at the beginning of this thread, everything noted by the OP can be easily explained by normal variation--especially of 3-shot groups.


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Originally Posted by antelope_sniper
Originally Posted by Orion2000

Spent six years doing technical and consumer research, and statistical analysis of the resultant data. Curious to see if it is possible to extrapolate 3 shot group size to 5 shot group size to 10 shout group size, etc.


The general guide line is 1/2" 3 shot groups = 0.75" 5 shot groups = 1" 10 shot groups.

In other words, what most shooter call 1/2" guns are actually 1" guns.


The general guide to extrapolate 5 shot to 10 shot groups i.e group shooting can only be useful if you follow the rules. Generalizations of groups shot under anything other than match conditions is useless. Moving of equipment and setup to a different bench and time limits to fire 5 or 10 shot strings is huge. Plus factor in whether you shoot as conditions allow or whether you shoot fast and furious for the conditions. Now 10 shot strings are hard to fire fast and furious Without a condition change, but have seen it done a couple of times.

If you really want to validate the difference between the two here are the guidelines to go by,

For the first match of each day or the first match after a change of distance, fifteen minutes shall be allowed for a ten shot match and ten minutes for a five shot match. For all other matches twelve minutes shall be allowed for ten shot matches and seven minutes for five shot matches. Not less than 30 minutes shall be allowed between the end of a relay of one event and the start of the same relay of the next event.

In other words 1 shot per minute Including sighters with 5 or 10 for record.



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so , out of curiosity, what did you discover was the problem with that 22-250 and how did you cure it?


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I didn't cure it. After trying every modification I could, including different loads, bedding, scopes, etc., I finally decided the barrel had not been stress-relieved correctly--or perhaps not at all, because the manufacturer assumed heavy button-rifled barrels do not require heat-treating.

It would put at least 3 and often 5 shots in 1/2", but when shooting any more before allowing it to cool, they started heading left and high. So I sold the thing.


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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
I didn't cure it. After trying every modification I could, including different loads, bedding, scopes, etc., I finally decided the barrel had not been stress-relieved correctly--or perhaps not at all, because the manufacturer assumed heavy button-rifled barrels do not require heat-treating.

It would put at least 3 and often 5 shots in 1/2", but when shooting any more before allowing it to cool, they started heading left and high. So I sold the thing.


Back in the 90's, they used to also use cryogenics to stress relieve barrels. As we know, the machining process can induce stresses into the barrel and if it is not properly stress relieved, with either heat or extreme cold, poor accuracy can and often occurs...

Skinny barrels can be made to shoot well, as long as the rifle is properly bedded and the appropriate load and optic used. Of course, the human element has to be spot on too...

Pretty lightweight steven's 200 22-250:
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

Tikka superlite 6.5 creedmoor:
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

These 2 rifles are ones I don't even waste my time with 3 shot groups. There have been countless times where I've shot 4 into the same hole with these 2. Don't even get me started on either of my CTR's...:
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
This sob shoots to exactly where I'm looking... The dropped shot was all on me...


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
Originally Posted by Pharmseller
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BSA,

Have talked to several barrelmakers about cryogenics, and the consensus was that it didn't make any consistent difference (if any) after the barrels were done--but did help some with the blanks BEFORE they were drilled, reamed and rifled. But also know that at least one of those barrelmakers (a top-notch cut-rifling firm) eventually quit doing it, since it cost more time and money and didn't make enough consistent difference.


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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
BSA,

Have talked to several barrelmakers about cryogenics, and the consensus was that it didn't make any consistent difference (if any) after the barrels were done--but did help some with the blanks BEFORE they were drilled, reamed and rifled But also know that at least one of those barrelmakers (a top-notch cut-rifling firm) eventually quit doing it, since it cost more time and money and didn't make enough consistent difference.

Thanks JB. I was wodering why they stopped doing it.. You know your buddies boddington and WVZ talked that cryogenics up quite a bit back in the day...


Originally Posted by raybass
I try to stick with the basics, they do so well. Nothing fancy mind you, just plain jane will get it done with style.
Originally Posted by Pharmseller
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Had the same problem with Remington CDL in 257 Weatherby Magnum.

Lot of powder down a slim tube. In my opinion simply heat.

Overcame by shooting load development cartridges at 10 minute intervals.

Slow but in my opinion more indicative of reality

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Wondering if OP tracked each shot, ie. was it the 2nd shot or 3rd that was the flier? Did it jump back and forth or did it put two shots together and the 3rd was a flier? Or was the1st one off and shots 2& 3 together. That can tell a lot whether it is 2 shot, 5 shot, or 10 shot group.


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This is included in the original post:

"Sometimes it’s the first shot that flys off, sometimes it’s the second, sometimes it’s the third. Sometimes it’s vertical, sometimes it’s horizontal, sometimes it’s diagonal."


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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
This is included in the original post:

"Sometimes it’s the first shot that flys off, sometimes it’s the second, sometimes it’s the third. Sometimes it’s vertical, sometimes it’s horizontal, sometimes it’s diagonal."


Parallax?


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Maybe, but the scopes on his three Savage rifles?

As I noted earlier, it would be better to shoot more meaningful 5-shot groups--if the fliers really bother him.


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Here is a good test of your rifles groups and it works for me. I will go out and shoot a group that I have worked up at the bench and lets say it shoots that group into an inch or inch and half. I know that it is loaded to what my gun likes and have loaded all rounds the same.....exact weigh in powder, seating, crimp, trim length....every thing the same. Now. on a day or days when there is no wind ( or less than 3 to 5 mph), cool days and most of time early in the morning, for some reason I can shoot my best in the morning. When I shoot this round I will have the same hold on the gun, same trigger pull and finger positioned on that trigger at same spot, cheek positioned the same.....everything that I can possibly do to produce a good shot. I will shoot only one shot this day and I will do my best to put it where I am aiming. Now, after several days of doing this, the targets are numbered and saved to compare and the targets are within that 1" group or 1.5" group of that rifle. I only am looking for a hunting round (deer hunting) and if it cannot put these rounds into that inch or inch and half, I have developed a bad round. Good out to far as I can shoot and that is 300-350 yards.


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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
This is included in the original post:

"Sometimes it’s the first shot that flys off, sometimes it’s the second, sometimes it’s the third. Sometimes it’s vertical, sometimes it’s horizontal, sometimes it’s diagonal."


OK.did not see that. Brain Fart.

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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
Maybe, but the scopes on his three Savage rifles?

As I noted earlier, it would be better to shoot more meaningful 5-shot groups--if the fliers really bother him.


The scopes on the three Savages are a;
250 Savage M-16 Weather Warrior w/Leupold VXIII 4.5-14X40 AO,
223 Rem in a Savage Axis w/Bushnell Trophy 4-12X40 AO (Timney trigger)
308 W. In Savage Axis w/Burris Fullfield II 3-9X40 (Timney trigger)
None of these three rifles give me much problems. Once in a while the 223 will change POI a bit but not bad.

The rifle that has given me the most grief by far is a custom chrome-moly (I believe “hook cut”) barreled M-70 with a 24” barrel installed by the well known barrel maker. The action is bedded, barrel is floated and I have tried 4 different quality scopes on it. Zeiss conquest, Leupold Vari -X III AO, Nikon Monarch w/AO and now a Meopta MeoPro with AO. Also have tried a whole host of medium to slow powders and various bullets. I’ve shot it morning, noon and late evening, wind still to light wind days. Same problems as mentioned before. However the flyer gets tighter with the other two with some loads. I’ve cleaned the barrel with WipeOut, Hoppe’s #9, Shooter’s Choice, Holland’s Witches Brew, Carb Out, etc. All pretty with much the same results.
I also have a 22-250 in a Winchester Featherweight with a stainless custom 3 groove 24” Feather weight barrel by another well known barrel maker. This barrel installed by a gunsmith who is also a benchrest shooter. Same thing, action bedded, barrel floated, tried multiple scopes with AO. Multiple different bullets too but I have pretty much stayed with H-380 powder with this rifle. I will be trying some of the new IMR Enduron powder soon with it though. It will quite often give me the two shots touching and one flyer way out in space.
On this rifle though, it is quite possible that barrel fouling might be the issue. I am pretty sure the barrel fouls after about 20 rounds or so and that is causing the problem, but not 100% certain.

FYI for one of the previous posters: I most always shoot multiple rifles when I target shoot to gauge my shooting ability for the day. I’m not naive enough to believe that I always shoot perfect. And yes I generally make note of which shot gives me the goofy flyer. Oh, and I shoot 100, 200 and 290 yards.
I also most always neck shoot 99% of the deer I kill and have for over 30 years, with two being just under a laser shot 200 yards.
(Well, one was laser shot, the other paced off as it was before laser range finders were on the market)

MD, I am curious as to why you feel a consecutive 5 shot group is better than 3 or 4 three shot groups shot in succession?

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Here's my chapter from the BIG BOOK OF GUN GACK II on the subject:

Chapter Five:
The Pros and Cons of Three-Shot Groups

Before World War Two many shooters fired 10-shot groups when testing rifles or ammunition, including Col. Townsend Whelen, author of the oft-quoted “only accurate rifles are interesting.” Even many hunters typically fired 5-shot groups when sighting-in, yet today 3-shot groups have become almost universal outside of formal competition.

What happened?

Before the war, most hunters used factory ammunition and iron-sighted rifles. Few owned a deer rifle capable of grouping less than 2-3 inches at 100 yards, yet still killed deer, so didn’t worry about tiny groups. In fact, many didn’t worry about groups at all, shooting only one round before adjusting their sights. Another factor may have been the war itself. As shooting supplies for civilians became scarcer, it made sense to use less ammunition.
Many older gun writers (including Whelen) were professional military men who helped develop rifles and ammunition. Many newer gun writers were primarily hunters, thanks to big game populations rising considerably after their low point around 1900. The most influential post-war writer was Jack O’Connor, who in his book The Hunting Rifle stated: “I consider the 3-shot group fired from a cold barrel indicative of the practical accuracy of a big-game rifle.”

During the 1950’s, handloading, rifle scopes and benchrest shooting all became far more popular. Many new handloaders read articles about using benchrest techniques to turn their scoped rifles into one-inch wonders, and discovered tiny clusters occurred more often when they only fired three shots.

This is exactly why so many 21st century deer hunters own “half-minute” rifles. The super-accurate handloads for most of these half-minute deer rifles are often range-proven by shooting handloads with slightly different powder charges, then picking the smallest cluster as The Load. I know this because so many friends and acquaintances “work up” hunting loads this way.

Recently, several of us had a short discussion after one guy showed off targets shot with a new .223 Remington, using handloads with different powder charges. The 3-shot groups ranging from slightly over half an inch to just under an inch, and the shooter wondered if free-floating the rifle’s barrel might improve accuracy.

Another guy said, pointing at the smallest group, “You’re not happy with a half-inch rifle?” I suggested (based on some experience) that ALL the groups probably represented the overall accuracy of the rifle—at least with 3-shot groups. The second guy looked me like I had two heads, neither with a brain.

Another friend gets almost irate whenever anybody suggests 3-shot groups don’t reveal a rifle’s accuracy level. He’s been testing ammo and sighting-in his big game rifles with 3-shot groups since reading Jack O’Connor as a kid, and taken a bunch of animals out to 350 yards, mostly with one shot.

So what’s the deal?

First, let’s look at the positives. Three-shot groups work for typical big game hunting because big game is by definition BIG. Even pronghorns and South Texas whitetails have a vital area the size of a volleyball. (If you didn’t know, the diameter of an official volleyball is slightly over eight inches.) As a result, any rifle averaging three shots in less than 1.5 inches at 100 yards will cleanly take big game out to 400 yards, and even farther. I know this due to range-testing, plus killing various animals at 400+ yards. (While 1.5 inches may seem like pretty sad accuracy, especially for a gun writer, we’re often forced to hunt with factory ammo in factory rifles. It’s tough work but somebody has to do it.)

For the same reason, 3-shot groups are sufficient for sighting-in the average big game rifle, whether scoped or not. Plus, several of my rifles are so accurate a single bullet hole at 100 yards reveals whether they’re still sighted-in. Why shoot twice more?

Now let’s look at the negatives of 3-shot groups:

Super-accuracy’s sometimes required for shooting distant targets, whether paper, varmints, or big game, and 3-shot groups aren’t enough to predict the spread of all shots from a rifle and load. With any rifle, 5-shot groups will average larger than three-shot groups, and 10-shot groups larger yet.

Many hunters believe this occurs due to thin barrels heating up. While some barrels will warp when warmer, a properly stress-relieved barrel keeps laying bullets in there even when HOT. A good example is the New Ultra Light Arms rifles built by Melvin Forbes, partly because the Douglas barrels he uses are correctly stress-relieved. After a fellow gun writer test-fired his first NULA sporter, he simply had to call me, because he’d shot a group of 30+ shots into about an inch, never pausing to allow the barrel to cool.

This doesn’t mean some barrels aren’t correctly stress-relieved, but the contour doesn’t really matter. The worst warper I’ve ever owned was the varmint-weight barrel on a .22-250 Remington, made by a factory known for accurate rifles. The first 3-4 shots went into tiny clusters, but after that they could land anywhere within a three-inch circle—and yes, the barrel was free-floated. This doesn’t work when shooting prairie dogs, so the rifle went down the road.

The real reason 3-shot groups average larger is the laws of chance, and applies to super-accurate benchrest rifles as well as light-barreled sporters. Assuming a single 3-shot group represents the widest spread of any rifle’s shots is like driving a pickup from Boise to Spokane and averaging 15.2 miles per gallon, then assuming the pickup will always get 15.2 miles per gallon, no matter the road, speed or weather.

Even averaging several 3-shot groups doesn’t provide a real look at the possible spread. If you doubt this, on your next range visit shoot three, 3-shot groups with the same ammo, using a different target for each group. When you get home, place each three-shot target carefully over a new target, and use a pen to make a circle inside each bullet hole, ending up with a drawing of a 9-shot group. I’d be willing to bet a brick of .22 Long Rifle target ammo the 9-shot group will be larger than the average of the 3-shot groups—but it will also be a better prediction of your load’s true accuracy.

So when do we really need to know the maximum level of accuracy of a rifle and load? One example might be 1000-yard benchrest shooting.

The world record for a single 10-shot group was set in 2014 by Jim Richards, at the Northwest Sectional Competition in Missoula, Montana for the annual matches held by the Original Pennsylvania 1000-Yard Benchrest Club. The group was officially measured at 2.659 inches, smaller than the 3-shot groups most hunters shoot at 300 yards—if they ever bother shooting a target at 300.

Jim’s a member of the Broadwater Rod and Gun Club in Townsend, Montana, of which I happen to be a life member, and I’ve talked to him about his group. He’s actually a comparative late-comer to long-range benchrest shooting, but learned quickly, and like all serious competitors goes to extreme lengths to make every round exactly alike. But he differs from some other benchresters, since he set the record with a used 6mm Dasher purchased from a fellow competitor!

The main point, however, is Jim Richards did not depend on 3-shot groups to develop the record-setting load. Instead he depended on firing more than three shots at various ranges. (For those desiring more details, the rifle has a Krieger barrel, Borden action, Shehane synthetic stock and Nightforce Benchrest scope, and the bullets were 105-grain Berger Hybrids, weight-sorted and then tip-uniformed with a meplat tool.)

I’m not interested in competing in benchrest matches, preferring to spend my “spare” time hunting, something that can be done pretty much year-round in Montana. But I do like to see what sort of groups can be shot at distances from 100 to, occasionally, 1000 yards. (The Broadwater Rod and Gun Club’s range extends to 1000, one reason Jim Richards is a member.) But I do considerable small-varmint shooting, and after the experience with the barrel-warping .22-250 started testing my rodent rifles by firing 10-shot groups as fast as possible, both to test group size and see if the increasingly warmer barrel kept laying them in there.

In the process I learned that any rifle/load combination that couldn’t put 10 under an inch at 100 yards wasn’t accurate enough to consistently hit Richardson’s ground squirrels at 200 yards, or prairie dogs twice their size at 300. Today I try to work up loads that put 10 shots inside .8-inch at 100, which converts to 2.4 inches at 300 yards—about the diameter of a tennis ball, or the width of a mature prairie dog.

Consistently hit means hitting rodents more than you miss. I’ve hunted prairie dogs with record-setting benchrest shooters, gunsmiths who build record-shooting benchrest rifles, top-notch military snipers and instructors, and nationally successful bullseye competitors. In a typical 5-10 mph breeze, none ever hit more prairie dogs than they missed much past 300 yards—and even at 300 you’d better have a very accurate rifle to hit more than you miss. (Another thing learned over the decades is most prairie dog shooters think they hit far more than they actually do, and to many any prairie dog they hit counts as consistently hitting ‘em, even if they took a dozen shots to finally get the job done.)

Eventually I abandoned three-shot groups when seriously testing most ammunition, because subsequent groups with any load that shot an initial tiny cluster almost never matched that first group, and the instances when they did were so rare they really stuck out. One of those rarities occurred when testing a bunch of different .25-06 Remington handloads in a Ruger No. 1AH. The first three-shot group with the 75-grain Hornady V-Max and 58.0 grains of Accurate 4350 measured .39 inch, so I loaded up nine more rounds and shot three more 3-shot groups. They measured .41, .39 and .37, for a four-group average of .39.

But that’s as rare as a pro-gun Democrat from San Francisco. More typical was the first group with the 156-grain Norma Oryx and 60.0 grain of H4831 from a .280 Ackley Improved. The three shots spanned exactly the magic half-inch, but three more groups with the same load averaged .93 inch, good but not magic.

So how many shots are required to truly predict the accuracy of a given rifle and load? A few years ago a guy named David Bookstaber contacted me about some new statistical analysis being done on exactly this subject. He’s a professional statistician (one of his recent jobs was as a “financial engineer”) who realized no major work had been done on accuracy analysis for a number of years. Eventually he was joined in the research by an actual rocket scientist (the director of one of the major U.S. government research labs), plus two more professional statisticians from Europe. You can look up the technical stuff on the website ballistipedia.com, but here are some Bookstaber’s main points:

First, statistical analysis of groups is designed to predict within a certain confidence level how a particular rifle/load will continue to perform. This confidence level is expressed as a percentage, such as 60% or 95%, with 95% obviously preferable to 60%.

Bookstaber confirmed my empirically-derived distrust of 3-shot groups, but one of his main points is that measuring the widest-shot spread in a group is a relatively poor way of analyzing accuracy: It assigns the same value to a one-inch group whether all the shots are evenly scattered inside than inch, or several cluster into half an inch, with a single “flier” outside the cluster. Instead, computing the standard deviation of the radius of each shot, from the center of a group, results in more confidence in any prediction of future accuracy.

Bookstaber mentioned the standard rifle accuracy test used for decades by the American Rifleman magazine, the average of five, 5-shot groups at 100 yards. Statistically, he found this pretty good—but if it used the standard deviation of all shots in a group, rather than extreme spread, the same confidence level could be determined by shooting fewer shots.

Shooting fewer shots is exactly what most hunters are after with 3-shot groups, but they don’t understand how the size of a typical big-game animal masks errors. What we can say is 3-shot groups averaging an inch are sufficient to produce a 100% confidence level for shooting volleyballs at 400 yards, but not enough for 100% confidence in shooting tennis balls at 300.

Many prairie dog shooters think 3-shot groups work because they expect to miss some prairie dogs anyway, but Bookstaber found “a single 3-shot sighting group will, on average, be .6 MOA from the true center.” Which is why three 3-shot groups almost always result in a much larger 9-shot group.

Around 1990, ballisticians at Speer calculated a seven-shot group provided the same amount confidence level as a 10-shot group. Bookstaber points out the “analysis was based on key parameters from very small Monte Carlo simulations done by Frank Grubbs in the 1960s. When you use better numbers – like those from the million-iteration simulations I ran for ballistipedia – you discover that 6-round groups are actually the optimum and 5-round groups are practically as efficient.”

However, most shooters won’t understand any of this, or even care. It’s been so long since ten-shot or 5-shot groups were standard, very few shooters understand they’ll always average larger than 3-shot groups from the same rifle. And neither results in many bragging-size “half-minute” groups from a deer rifle!


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Originally Posted by doctor_Encore
This question of throwing the third shot out of a group was asked in a post a few years back. I don't remember the campfire member who offered a solution to this dilemma as he suggested seating the bullets a few thousands deeper. I do recall the original poster could offer a reason seating bullets deeper worked... but it did.

I was working up loads for a Savage 99 at the time that consistently threw the third shot out of a 3 shot group. For my next test loads I seated the bullets a few thousands
deeper and the 3rd shot issue out of group issue was gone. Over all the 3 shot group tightened up into a wonderful 3 shot clover leaf if I did my job with a typical Savage 99 trigger.

Your results may vary....just sharing mine.


That would be me.
I was shown this technique by bench rest shooters in the 80's. These guys never ever preloaded for any match shoot and were always seen walking around with trays of prepped cases before a shoot or at the range to work up loads for the range conditions prevalent. Traveled hunters may also note that their loads made at home range can often drift off in accuracy when they are far from home in different climates and altitudes so the point was how do you set up a load.

I do now, but never historically measured OAL as it did not matter. It was mroe fassiona statement to market handloading prowess by many as your own OAL is completely irrelevent to the next guy attempting to ape your "stated" results.
Fits in the magazine - Check 1.
Feeds perfectly - Check 2.
OAL- who cares (Except when you want to reset dies back to a chosen bullet at a later date to mark a starting point.)

Now to business.

When you have a 2 +1 group the OAL is too long. It needs to be seated deeper.
Begin with a 1/4 turn on your seating die for medium heavy profiled barrels and half that, 1/8 turns for light "whippy" barrels.
This will not work for everyone but it will work for many by the reports I get back from people who try it. You need to shoot say 3 groups to begin with to see what you have and learn how much "you", influence the group.

If the group is an equilateral triangle, go the other way and seat out further.

Because my main background was rifle testing and reviews, I had rifles, and sometimes multiple examples in the same chamberings to play with from never less than an month to sometimes up to 6 months to play with so I hammered these rifles every week for 6-8 hours a day testing loads and components. My reloading bench at the range was larger than some small gun shops carry in components so it was usual to take a dozen or more bullets and powders and repeat, repeat, repeat over weeks until the patterns shrank. I also took multiple rifles at a time so that teh swap-out time allowed for a break and also a cool down of the rifles tested.

A responsive barrel can come in nicely in a trip or 2. some never improved and that was simply the nature of that particular rifle.

By doing this for decades, I learned many things as evolutionary steps for example.

1. Some older rifles made around the time of our birth shot better over the years and not worse - why? because bullets became better balances, more concentric, cup and core match-up improved, ogive changes bases changed, metallurgy changes, the smoothness of jackets improved and that is before we look at primers and powder changes and choices.

Back to tuning the load, I also learned that lighter barrels were more fussy and some also likes a certain bullet weight range, meaning lighter end, medium weights or heavy weights for the caliber. Choose wrong, because you can't know until you try them all and it is easy to blame the rifle.

Scopes were a huge issue in previous decades. A brand new scope with a 4 digit price tag can be junk in a box. A commonly slandered el cheapo toss away scope can be terrific and last decades giving "never shift" dependability.

A lot of this is dependent on how much you shoot. How many of you have burned out a barrel, or 2 or 5 or more. The hands keep dropping. That's ok, this is not a contest is is a lesson on how to better understand what something can be manually changed in order to show a change that can be monitored.

Changing seating depth is one such activity and in more rifles than not, it will generate a manual change you can monitor. After saying this, also remember that bullet makers change the designs on their bullets and will never advertise that fact. You may have a load that will reliably head shoot sparrows all day every day as they sating goes and then a new load goes bad. If you keep a sampling of bullets on the shelf it is common to find a very subtle change in design such as bearing surface dimension, a change to the bullet heal or boat tail. (Some rifles hate BT;s and others love them) and ogive length or shortening or a core change that cannot be seen.

I had a web site in the 90's back before Al Gore invented the internet called Guns&Info.com. (Where I first met Fotis) and I answered all the technical questions.

One day I got a question from a guy who was using 100gn Barnes X bullets in his .25/06 and all of a sudden the rifle stared to lose accuracy. HE checked everything add was completely stuck. Well, it is very hard to diagnose any problems over the internet as you all know. Interestingly, I was contacted by Dan Pedersen, who I did not know at that time and he told me he was noting the same thing and wondered if it was the bullets. I went down to my bench and opened a stash of Barnes X's and looked them over. At some point I put a mic on them and noticed that some were .005" undersized.

I went through the lot and separated them by measurement and took my .custom match grade barrelled .25/06 to the range and bingo. The skinny bullets did not shoot as well as the fat ones. Imagine that. That is what I reported to those asking on my web site that night.

Since that time, Barnes bullets have gone through considerable changes that assure a very consistent product for today's shooters.

The lessons are:
You cannot know everything so expect to learn something new.
Someone else's success may not be your success or your easy way out.
Recommendation are just options, consider them more than you enact them.
The internet is both help and hindrance, as it provides a saturation of information and many contributions will be guesses not fact based so try and sift through them.

PS: I type off the top of my head and hate proof reading so apologies in advance for the rambling.
John


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That is a very interesting read MD, Thanks for sharing that!

I still have two more questions.
How can anyone determine if a rifle barrel is stressed and needs stress relieving after being manufactured?
What is the test method to determine that?
AND how can anyone tell if the bore is truly “straight” down the middle of the barrel?
What is the test method for that?

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I own a Mini-Mark X 223 that puts 3 into 3/4" regularly. Always in the same place. I've shot 2 - 3 shot groups of 3/8" on a VERY good (probably lucky) day.
Prairie dog and coyote killer. After about 3 - 4 shots, it starts walking, however.
10 shot group would take a while smile ! VERY light barrel on that one - a pleasure to carry, though.


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"When you have a 2 +1 group the OAL is too long. It needs to be seated deeper.
Begin with a 1/4 turn on your seating die for medium heavy profiled barrels and half that, 1/8 turns for light "whippy" barrels.
This will not work for everyone but it will work for many by the reports I get back from people who try it. You need to shoot say 3 groups to begin with to see what you have and learn how much "you", influence the group.
"

I printed out John's (AussieGunWriter) reloading tips he shared a few years ago and they have been reliable for me.


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In many ways what John (AussieGunWriter) and I do with adjusting seating depth is the same thing--except I don't seat bullets further out from the starting point.

Instead, I seat them as close to the lands as is practically possible to start with. Only rarely is this touching the lands, because I mostly load for hunting rifles, and seating a bullet into the lands is a bad idea for hunting.

Instead I start lead-core bullets around .025 inch from the lands, and monolithics .05. (Monolithics rarely shoot well when seated closer than to .05 from the lands, the reason Barnes advises starting at .05.) Then I work up loads with various powders. If the accuracy isn't what I desire, then I start seating bullets deeper until they do shoot better--or I give up on that powder/bullet combination.

The reason I only seat bullets deeper--aside from the Barnes advice, which I've found applies to every monolithic tried--is that pressure drops as bullets are seated slightly deeper, and rises when they're seated further out. (Pressure can start rising again when rifle bullets are seated a LOT deeper, but that usually occurs deeper than most of us will ever get them.)

You can observe the results of this decrease in pressure on a chronograph, as muzzle velocities normally drop a little as bullets are seated farther from the lands. Once in a while I tweak the powder charge after finding the right seating depth, to bring velocity back up, but generally the loss is too small to bother with.

Have found that far more of today's bullets will shoot better when seated farther from the lands, whether monolithics or high-BC lead-cores. There are two probable reasons for this: The hunting bullets most of us use until relatively recently were all lead-cores, with relatively blunt tangential ogives, which aren't as sensitive to seating depth.

The other possible reason was many rifles had relatively "loose" chamber throats,. These were actually standard on the military-surplus rifles so many hunters used after WWII on up through the 1960s, because loose throats could be very dirty, whether from actual dirt or the dirty-burning powders often used back then, and still allow rounds to chamber easily. These throats were enough larger in diameter that bullets could tilt somewhat on their journey to the lands if seated deeply. Thus most rifles shot best with bullets seated close to the lands.

Today, however, the throats of even many factory rifles are much smaller, often very close to bullet diameter--and of course the throats in custom chambers are often tighter yet. Thus deep-seated bullets can't tilt much, if any, before entering the rifling. So it often pays to play with deeper seating--and in fact one of my recent custom rifles, a 6.5 PRC, shoots best with most (but not all) bullets seated a full 10th of an inch (.1) from the lands.


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AussieGunWriter,
I am anxious to try your suggestions as well as MD’s with my “problem child” rifles.
I have to admit that I have been usually going in the opposite direction on my bullet seating depth as I usually seat a little further in at the start.......

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99% of the time I just begin with wherever the seating die is from the last load as it really doesn't matter where you start from. The groups will either be good as is, 2+1, or a large triangle.
The reason being that the OAL maximum for each bullet will change anyway because of the ogive differences with each bullet so most of my OAL's tend to be not factory maximums nor anywhere near that length. The first groups are just to determine where you are starting from so in a way, this does not even rely on the typical maximum powder charges that people seek.
Remember that bench rest shooters don't care about velocity, only accuracy wins matches.

The other point here is that everything contributors have said here about variables over the years still has relevance to this point, beginning with powder lot variations, moisture losses with frequently opened powder cans, bullet variances/changes, primer variances, barrel and throat wear, length, maker, twist etc everything you ever read that is important to us, is a "so what, incidental" to a bench rest shooter. They don't care because they know they can never rely on the load from last match to win under new conditions which is why they walk around with trays of primed cases and set up a powder thrower.

The goal is accuracy that day, with what is on hand, regardless or historical variances and synergies. It is all about tuning a load to win the match at hand. That means where the seating die is set, the powder in the hopper, the primed cases prepped and start there. Once at the range is it what you have and tweak the seating die. The fact that the loads are charged and seated that day just adds to the uniformity of bullet tension on the case neck again, for that day.

The Aussie market was never as wide as the US market, gun shops were much smaller by comparison and consistent availability of the bullet you used last time almost never occurred so you tended to try a huge range of bullets because of that lack of consistent availability. By trying many loads over a lot of years, this tended to qualify the seating depth strategy over a wide range of rifles and chamberings.

I hope this works for many of you as I don't see too many rifles that don't respond to some degree, some dramatically.
John


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AGW - lots of good points there. I keep coming back to us wanting to achieve "target group accuracy" when our goal is "first-shot hunting accuracy", where all of those variables will have an effect on that one shot as well when compared to where it hit when the load was developed. I think that "good enough" is about all we can ask for.


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Originally Posted by 5sdad
AGW - lots of good points there. I keep coming back to us wanting to achieve "target group accuracy" when our goal is "first-shot hunting accuracy", where all of those variables will have an effect on that one shot as well when compared to where it hit when the load was developed. I think that "good enough" is about all we can ask for.


Good enough is all you can ever ask for from a hunting rifle - especially when you consider that most shooters are using off the shelf rifles, used rifles, abused rifles, etc.


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Originally Posted by Mule Deer
BSA,

Have talked to several barrelmakers about cryogenics, and the consensus was that it didn't make any consistent difference (if any) after the barrels were done--but did help some with the blanks BEFORE they were drilled, reamed and rifled. But also know that at least one of those barrelmakers (a top-notch cut-rifling firm) eventually quit doing it, since it cost more time and money and didn't make enough consistent difference.



Cut rifling doesn't really add all that much stress anyway, not when compared to buttons and hammer forging.


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Nope, but know another cut-barrel maker who (at least last I heard) cryoed all barrel steel as it came from the factory, already heat-treated, as he claimed it machined easier.

Don't know any button or hammer-forging companies which cryo at any point, but there may be exceptions.


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Originally Posted by Steve Redgwell
Originally Posted by 5sdad
AGW - lots of good points there. I keep coming back to us wanting to achieve "target group accuracy" when our goal is "first-shot hunting accuracy", where all of those variables will have an effect on that one shot as well when compared to where it hit when the load was developed. I think that "good enough" is about all we can ask for.


Good enough is all you can ever ask for from a hunting rifle - especially when you consider that most shooters are using off the shelf rifles, used rifles, abused rifles, etc.


Good enough for some may not be good enough for others. Where you draw your line, may be in a totally different spot than where I draw mine... I was at the range yesterday shooting with one of my buddies. I've been hunting with him since i was 10 years old. He's never been a top notch shooter, but he's starting to catch the accuracy bug lately. Even though he's dang near 50 years old now. He's been shooting since he was a little kid too. Mainly a hunter, not a bench rest shooter by any means. He's sat in the rocks with me when I made a 648 yard shot on a buck down in the Deschutes canyons a few years ago, so he knows what a good accurate rifle and load is capable of. Yesterday as we drove to the range, he told me he likes going shooting with me because he always learns something and he was excited to shoot his new predator 6.5 creedmoor with some handloads I had worked up for him. This may sound stupid, but I had to go over how to adjust the eye focus and parallax on his scope. I didn't know, he had no idea on how to adjust those to his eyesight. The reason I found out was because I was shooting irons and I asked if he could see where I was hitting through his scope. He said, "no the picture is a little blurry". I said, do you have it adjusted to your eyesight? He said, "no". I asked if he knew how to do that. and he said "no".... We got it adjusted to his eyes and then he could see the bullet holes in the target. I said my spotting scope has rain all over the lens, but it looks like they are all clustered in there, he confirmed what I was seeing. The highlight of the day was after my buddy had his scope properly set for his eyesight and he actually shot some bug hole groups!! He laid 5 shots in there, right on the orange dot of the target and it was just a ragged hole. It measured about 5/8" from center to center. He did the same thing with his 22-250 (with my handloads) and that 5 shot group measured 3/8"... He normally doesn't do this, but he even took his targets home...


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Originally Posted by bsa1917hunter
Originally Posted by Steve Redgwell
Originally Posted by 5sdad
AGW - lots of good points there. I keep coming back to us wanting to achieve "target group accuracy" when our goal is "first-shot hunting accuracy", where all of those variables will have an effect on that one shot as well when compared to where it hit when the load was developed. I think that "good enough" is about all we can ask for.


Good enough is all you can ever ask for from a hunting rifle - especially when you consider that most shooters are using off the shelf rifles, used rifles, abused rifles, etc.


Good enough for some may not be good enough for others. Where you draw your line, may be in a totally different spot than where I draw mine... I was at the range yesterday shooting with one of my buddies. I've been hunting with him since i was 10 years old. He's never been a top notch shooter, but he's starting to catch the accuracy bug lately. Even though he's dang near 50 years old now. He's been shooting since he was a little kid too. Mainly a hunter, not a bench rest shooter by any means. He's sat in the rocks with me when I made a 648 yard shot on a buck down in the Deschutes canyons a few years ago, so he knows what a good accurate rifle and load is capable of. Yesterday as we drove to the range, he told me he likes going shooting with me because he always learns something and he was excited to shoot his new predator 6.5 creedmoor with some handloads I had worked up for him. This may sound stupid, but I had to go over how to adjust the eye focus and parallax on his scope. I didn't know, he had no idea on how to adjust those to his eyesight. The reason I found out was because I was shooting irons and I asked if he could see where I was hitting through his scope. He said, "no the picture is a little blurry". I said, do you have it adjusted to your eyesight? He said, "no". I asked if he knew how to do that. and he said "no".... We got it adjusted to his eyes and then he could see the bullet holes in the target. I said my spotting scope has rain all over the lens, but it looks like they are all clustered in there, he confirmed what I was seeing. The highlight of the day was after my buddy had his scope properly set for his eyesight and he actually shot some bug hole groups!! He laid 5 shots in there, right on the orange dot of the target and it was just a ragged hole. It measured about 5/8" from center to center. He did the same thing with his 22-250 (with my handloads) and that 5 shot group measured 3/8"... He normally doesn't do this, but he even took his targets home...



I agree completely. My rifles are semi custom lightweight hunting rifles, but most of the shooting is done at the range. That’s where the fun and the challenge is. The same thing goes for scopes. I don’t need the scopes I have or the fussy handloading and higher accuracy to kill most of the animals I’ve killed. But I want it for the challenge and the fun.

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I also agree and do the same thing. What I was addressing was the apparent belief among some that this is necessary for hunting purposes.


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I've been watching this thread closely as I have a Featherweight that's giving me fits with the 2+1 issue. A quick internet search of various shooting forums shows that this is actually a pretty common problem, but the answers all generally come back the same: something wrong with the scope, bases, rings, bedding, etc. I have run across John's (AGW) suggestion that it is a seating depth issue in only one other forum (not this one) a long time ago, and for the life of me I can't remember which one it was. But I'm going to put together some rounds and start tweaking the seating stem. If that doesn't work, I'll head in an entirely different direction.

Thanks to the two Johns, as well as the rest, for an interesting and informative thread.

RM


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Mike,
If it does not work in your featherweight, it more likely means the rifle does not like the bullet itself and that is easily proven by using another bullet and trying the same method again. If you are using a SG like mine in 7x57, I recommend you prove this to yourself with some 145gn LRX or 175gn Partitions as my rifle loves either.


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Learn to shoot...


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That's definitely a theory................


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Originally Posted by AussieGunWriter
Mike,
If it does not work in your featherweight, it more likely means the rifle does not like the bullet itself and that is easily proven by using another bullet and trying the same method again. If you are using a SG like mine in 7x57, I recommend you prove this to yourself with some 145gn LRX or 175gn Partitions as my rifle loves either.


This particular rifle doesn't care at all for anything in the 140-150 range, but will group 175-gr Speer Grand Slams into about 3/4 inch. With 140-150s, it looks more like a shotgun pattern. The 154-gr ILSP is the bullet that's printing 2+1. I know it will consistently shoot 175-gr Grand Slams into groups measuring about 3/4 inch, but I don't really want to shoot anything that heavy in it. I have other 7x57s for that. I'd like to get the 154s to shoot, but this just might be one of those rifles that shoots better with the heavies (i.e., longer, which might mean that the Barnes bullets might be a workable option as well).

My Featherweight is the standard CRF that was introduced for the 2013(?) shot show.


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Originally Posted by Rifles And More
Are you going to move away from 3 shot groups?

I suggest 9 shot or even more - if you end up at 6 shots and the rifle does the same, maybe it's not a flyer, that's just how the rifle shoots.
.

I agree with this approach, if for no other reason than to make a final selection from testing various loads against each other.
To my way of thinking, any decisions regarding which load is better needs 5 or 6 shots minimum to determine overall average size of group, otherwise the decision is meaningless, premature, information with only 3 shots.

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Mike,
Thanks for the additional info, that gets us right to the point.
My Super Grade is a Cabelas Anniversary model so is similar/same vintage as yours.

With the 154gn Hornady SP, try the following:

50gn H 414 and Fed 210 for 2836fps and .816" in my rifle. OAL is 3.136"
51gn Rel 26 and Fed 210 for 2628fps (Nothing to brag about) but is shoots well @ .576" with and OAL of 3.133" ( a hair deeper)
46gn VARGET and Fed 210 for just on 2800fps and around .75" but I tried this a little deeper with an OAL of 3.087"

I have tried a lot of seating depth OAL's with this bullet from 3.136" - 3.070" and I feel 3.130 + - is a good place for your to start.
Have fun,
John


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Thank you, that's very helpful. BTW, what brass?

Mike


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Winchester.


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Thanks.


"An archer sees how far he can be from a target and still hit it, a bowhunter sees how close he can get before he shoots." It is certainly easy to use that same line of thinking with firearms. -- Unknown
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