Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Ask The Gunwriters 2 Shots Tight & One Flyer Theories?

Yes, it has appeared to on more than one occasion.

Also, sometime ago I read about and tried a load development method called OCW. I believe it is an acronym for “Optimal Charge Weight), where you basically do that same thing but shoot one shot of a progressive charge weight at “X” number of targets for each load you have. You end up shooting the same 3 loads at the same particular target but you don’t shoot the same load in succession, it progresses then you come back full circle and shoot another progressive string until all three loads have been fired at the same target.
Anyway when I tried this OCW method, I allowed the barrel to cool to ambient temperature before each shot, and the 2 tight shots/one flyer grouping seemed to disappear for the most part.
I also need to mention that none of my rifles are bull barrels but are of various sporter contours with the only exceptions being 2 Winchester M-70 Coyotes with what the factory calls a medium bull barrel. These two rifles also seem to buck the “2 tight shots/one flyer thing, but again, not always.
I agree with MD that there are so many variables but this type of grouping happens far too often with too much consistency in so many of the same rifles even after having tinkered with the stocks, scopes, loads, etc. I have spoken with and seen it happen to other shooters as well.
Back in the 1980s I had a 270 W. that I hunted with, every year before hunting season I would take that rifle out and fire one shot at at 100 yards and one shot at a 200 yard target. Every time I did so that rifle would put the shot at dead center at exactly 3 inches high at 100 and approximately 3-1/2” high at 200 yards. It never failed to do so. I went out and shot my limit of deer without missing a shot. After about 5 or 6 years I decided to do some target shooting with some remaining reloads I had. When I did I quickly found that this particular rifle didn’t keep that same accuracy with the additional shots. It did the same 2 tight/one flyer thing. But instead of the first two shots being in a tight group, the second and third shots literally went southXsouthwest and dropped down and left a good inch and half at 100 and slightly more at 200. After letting the rifle cool a spell, I fired another string and ditto, same thing with virtually the same identical pattern. It did that several times in a row. Now, it could be said that existing barrel fouling caused that to happen but I vigorously cleaned the barrel with the predominant solvents of those days (Hopes #9/Shooter’s Choice and some JB Bore paste) and fired some more 3 shot groups. But it didn’t make any substantial difference. The groups were pretty much the same.

Are you going to move away from 3 shot groups?

I suggest 9 shot or even more - if you end up at 6 shots and the rifle does the same, maybe it's not a flyer, that's just how the rifle shoots.

I chased the flyer in a Tikka for a while. Removed the stock bumps, new lug and some other things. Then I started 10 to 15 shot groups and the fliers were part of the big picture. Truth is, it's not a .2 or .3 rifle, it's just a MOA rifle over the 15 shots...and that is ok.

Also, I think one of my Lyman manuals has an article about shooting a group on a clean target and keeping it. Each subsequent trip to the range, overlay your new target on the old. It will show, over time, the true accuracy of the rifle through all conditions.

Shoot your last shot first and see if that makes a difference.

This question of throwing the third shot out of a group was asked in a post a few years back. I don't remember the campfire member who offered a solution to this dilemma as he suggested seating the bullets a few thousands deeper. I do recall the original poster could offer a reason seating bullets deeper worked... but it did.

I was working up loads for a Savage 99 at the time that consistently threw the third shot out of a 3 shot group. For my next test loads I seated the bullets a few thousands
deeper and the 3rd shot issue out of group issue was gone. Over all the 3 shot group tightened up into a wonderful 3 shot clover leaf if I did my job with a typical Savage 99 trigger.

Your results may vary....just sharing mine.

I have a 6.5x55 with a Krieger #1 barrel that exhibits this pattern when I fire three rounds back to back to back. Need to take it out on a calm cool day and let the barrel cool between rounds to see if it mitigates the issue. If that settles out, will try 5 shot groups...



I have considered trying a variation of this a couple times. Permanently fix a target to a target backer. Tape another target over top of it. Shoot a 3 shot group. Remove and replace the top target, Shoot another 3 shot group. Rinse and repeat 5 times. Measure the "15 shot group" on the original target. Rinse and repeat 5 more times. Measure the "30 shot group". Draw comparisons to the average of the 3 shot groups...

If anyone has done this ^^^^^^ and can post a link, would be appreciative...

I agree with the above..move the bullets deeper in the case neck, I do .005thos. at a move. Powder charge stays the same. Remember to change only ONE thing at a time. And IME a three shot group is enough for one string, for lots of reasons. BTB, do you call your shots?

Each rifle is as individual as people, no matter who makes it or if they came off the line one behind the other. Load for them with that thought in mind.
Good luck.

Maybe yes, but that also give time for the temp and wind to change.

I agree with liking the results of several 3 shot groups over a 5 shot group. Rarely do I ever shoot more than a couple times in a row at game - so I want to know where the first one for sure goes, then the next couple are also of interest. Many days I will have several groups at the range. I keep the targets and have looked at them the next day or two. What i thought was crap at the range was actually <1" and often 1/2 of that - just not all touching. Probably plenty good for my intended purpose.

Geez that sounds boring. Why not just shoot a couple 10 shot groups so you can see what you and your rifle are really capable of. Also, when you shoot more shots per group (lets say 10), you'll find out where your true poi is. A lot of you guys wont shy away from your 3 shot group theories or phobias.

I just don't understand the reluctance to accept the easy proven fact that a couple of three-shot groups are unreliable predictors of the true accuracy potential of a rifle or load. I often use three-shot groups but only to check a rifles zero.

I have been playing with some 30-06 loads recently and noticed that every load I try with RL 17 or Hunter shoots two touching and one "flyer", but usually within an inch. However, any load I try with RL26 shoots into an equilateral triangle. I saw this both with multiple 180 AB loads and 190 ABLR loads.

I have heard to seat bullet deeper if you get two tight and a flyer, and seat longer, but the pattern above came from same seating depths; just different powders and different chargers.

There's nothing wrong with 3 shot groups provided they stay in the same place and you shoot enough of them. If you don't, they will not tell you much that's useful.

The barrel vibration consideration is real an can quite easily be what you are seeing. Some rifles will have issues with tuning a load. I have a 25-06 that does what you describe but throws bigger groups with Barnes 100 grain bullets. Careful testing with that rifle established it's preferred seating depth with those bullets, but no way in hell could I bring that rifle below an inch after trying half a dozen or maybe a couple more powders as long as I tried to bring the velocity in at near max pressure. It always tended to 2 and 1 groups and they wandered some. I bought some factory ammo for super cheap to get the brass and bullets. I decided to shoot some to see what it did. It shot very nice groups that didn't wander, but at about 250 FPS below what the rifle is capable of. Measuring showed the exact same seating depth I had found the rifle liked. Testing at that velocity with several powders proved any of them could produce groups down near a starting charge.

Pretty reasonable evidence that barrel vibration was the issue. I tried a rubber donut on the barrel to see if maybe I could compensate and get my 250 FPS back, but no luck.

I would look at seating depth as an issue first if you are confident of a good load. Load development can get expensive if you have problems, so, just look at your fliers as part of the group and assume those fliers are part of the group and that a 5 or 10 shot group would maybe have half of it as "fliers". If there' any evidence of the group wandering, that has to be considered as part of the group as well. If you are certain of the seating depth your rifle likes then work with the charge and go carefully from starting load up to max. If that doesn't solve it, try a different powder. Sometimes just moving that pressure peak just a little earlier or later will look like a miracle just happened. I have never found a way to illuminate my guesses about whether a slightly faster or slower powder will solve my problem(s) Similarly, with monos which I have found can be very touchy about seating depth in some rifles. Cheapest for me has worked out to be if they won't shoot at the starting depth I just move up close to the lands and then work back in .010 increments. Some rifles are easy. Some rifles are hard. I have learned that it's not my choice which rifle I am working with. About 2-4 per cent of the rifles I have solved are "difficult" if you want a given rifle to shoot a given bullet. Sometimes it's easier to change bullets.

I wonder what number of shots per group Billy Dixon used in developing his load.

SoTexCurdog,

In my opinion I think this is the question to answer. If the two shots that are close together are not at the same point of impact on the target as all the other 3 shot groups, then it would just be bullets landing randomly inside a circle of true accuracy potential.
In other words, if the two close shots don’t repeatedly land in the same point of impact for multiple groups, then you can’t consider the other shots “flyers”.

The indian is part of this equation, not just the arrow...

No, but the type of wood used for the arrow shaft, where it grew under what conditions as well as its # of times being shot, which species of bird provided the fletching for the feathers, the age of the bird, the conditions under which the feathers were acquired, the stone used to make the arrow head, how it was knapped, who did the knapping are all vital parts of the whole. And, this does not even take into account all of the variables that went into the making of the bow.

ST Curdog,

As suggested above, go shoot some 10 shot groups. The two touching with one out will probably turn into a uniform cloud at 10 shots.

Alternately, from a statistically standpoint the best tool for identifying your overall level of variance with the fewest shots is 2, 5 shots groups.

If you are going to use 3 shot groups you need at least 3 preferable 5 CONSECUTIVE groups to give a decent statistical results. That doesn't mean shoot 5 groups and take the best, but all groups need to be considered together in context as a single body of work....or you are just fooling yourself.

Fooling ourselves is a very large part of shooting/handloading.

Bingo!

The thread reads of so many potential mechanical variables while ignoring human error. lol

In my opinion, when using more shots to make a better judge of accuracy, that includes taking the shooters ability into consideration.
If 10 shot groups are consistently not bigger than X in size, I think that accounts for everything.