Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Weather experts issue most threatening hurricane forecast yet

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/fo...-forecast-yet/?__twitter_impression=true

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. To date, the season is about two weeks ahead of record pace and it's only one third of the way through. On Wednesday, the news became more concerning as the research team at Colorado State University (CSU) — the standard bearer for seasonal forecasts — released the most dire forecast in their 37-year history.

Labeling the 2020 hurricane season "extremely active," the team is now predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes — each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.


Only 21 storm names are allotted each year because the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z are not used. As a result, if 24 tropical storms are indeed named, the National Hurricane Center will have to employ the Greek Alphabet for overflow. This has only happened one time on record — in 2005 when the Atlantic experienced 28 named storms.

An overview of Colorado State University's 2020 hurricane season forecast as of August 5, 2020.
CSU
In addition, CSU is forecasting a 75% chance that the U.S. coast will be struck by a major hurricane — Category 3 or greater — during the 2020 season. This is significant because damage increases exponentially with wind speed. Category 3, 4 and 5 systems cause 85% of all hurricane damage.


Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the lead forecaster of the CSU team, tells CBS News that because the 2020 season is already on a record pace, and conditions remain ripe for activity, the forecast is not particularly far-fetched.

"Honestly, forecasting 15 additional named storms isn't that much of a stretch," he said. "The average season in the active era (from 1995-2019) had 12 additional named storms after August 5."

The last system, Hurricane Isaias, marked the fifth storm to make landfall this season. That's also about two weeks ahead of record pace.

Fu Q.

They've been predicting massive storm activity due to global warming for 25 years. Watch them scream victory if we actually have a big year.

Yeah, they can just stay away from here, although I do make pretty decent cash moving boats when they come close like the one we had this past weekend.

Another pack of liberals that couldn't fine own butts.

Making a prediction 1/3 of the way thru the season is not much of a prediction. If I could place a bet on a ball game after 1/3 of it had been played, I could win a lot of bets.

I hope we don’t have any come here.

Does anyone know if a cat-5 has ever hit Minneapolis?

Just trying to be proactive in my thinking.

They've been wrong before, damn weather guessers. One thing about it there's nothing you or I can do about the weather.

Would be hoping for some remedy here. I forecast 4 CAT5 storms will hit NYC biweekly, beginning 15 Oct. When they arrive they will park and wait for the next to move them along.

Don't need any more storms here, we are still cleaning up from the last one. Rio7

That's as good a guess as anyone's.

University of Colorado?

Right after I get done reading that article on Infectious Tropical Diseases from the University of Alaska.

Is this based on another model?

I work as a professional meteorologist (30 years now) and I pay no attention to the annual hurricane forecast.
I mean, if we have 25 and none of them do any damage, so what. But if we have only one that ph ucks your [bleep] up, it sucks.

Bingo! I heard a researcher on the radio recently, a weather expert. He said you need to look at hurricane intensity for the past hundred years. You will see that the fifty years from 1920 to 1970 had many more powerful storms, than did the fifty years from 1970 until today. So much for global warming causing worse storms.

And, that doesn't include the catastrophic Galveston hurricane, I think it was 1903, about 5,000 deaths and it blew Galveston off the map.

Has nada to do with global warming.

I don't read anything reported by CBS or a university in Colorado.

Must be Trumps fault!

Wonder what the standard deviation is for those averages.