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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642 |
Time to buy again? I’m holding XOM, MMP, ET, HAL and just bought 100 shares of HAL, thinking I should buy a good bit more at this price while it’s close to March’s low. Lot of guys on here with intimate knowledge of the industry, what’s the consensus?
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,290
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,290 |
These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o "May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258 |
I think we are heading for a sell off short term, but maybe soon if you have the stomach.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid" John Wayne
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,290
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 60,290 |
These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o "May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,795
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 2,795 |
Might be some volitility due to consolidating.
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 2,954
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 2,954 |
I bought a truck load of XOM at $36 last March. Still holding it. I think it'll double in 2-years.
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,850
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,850 |
I work in the industry. It's fugged.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,340
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 11,340 |
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Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 17,215
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 17,215 |
Time to buy again? I’m holding XOM, MMP, ET, HAL and just bought 100 shares of HAL, thinking I should buy a good bit more at this price while it’s close to March’s low. Lot of guys on here with intimate knowledge of the industry, what’s the consensus? Sean?
...Actually Sycamore, you are sort of right....
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642 |
I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t see alternative energy destroying fossil fuels as long as gas is +/- $2. My guess is we’re at LEAST one more boom cycle away from it. But I don’t think I’m a long term holder of the sector any longer. In my business, after Katrina, every single home buyer’s #1 concern was energy efficiency. Insulation, SEER ratings, window performance, solar and wind generators.... I haven’t heard a single question about any of that from a customer in 5 years.
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258 |
I watched a segment were they projected global production, a couple years and we will be short again unless they keep drilling. Hint, they won't keep drilling at these prices. It's always been boom/bust, there is no replacement. Two years out I'm a bull, short term ( couple months) I'm a bear. Demand will grow in Asia even as demand slows in the US. I'll probably be a buyer the next few months of good dividend yielding energy stocks.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid" John Wayne
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,642 |
I watched a segment were they projected global production, a couple years and we will be short again unless they keep drilling. Hint, they won't keep drilling at these prices. It's always been boom/bust, there is no replacement. Two years out I'm a bull, short term ( couple months) I'm a bear. Demand will grow in Asia even as demand slows in the US. I'll probably be a buyer the next few months of good dividend yielding energy stocks. Anything beyond the obvious choices that you’re looking at?
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 43,517
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 43,517 |
If I could somehow move even further from the stock market and into higher ROI cash flowing real property and low overhead businesses, I would.
That said, I've had good luck long term with REITs.
Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want. Rehabilitation is way overrated. Orwell wasn't wrong. GOA member disappointed NRA member 24HCF SEARCH
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Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 10,671
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 10,671 |
I'm waiting for the XLE spiders to get to mid 20s which is about 10% lower. I think medium term, regardless of the election, it could do well. If Trump wins, no green deal crap, no extra regs, no extra taxes. If Biden wins, they may go after fracking and cause prices to go up. Either way, when the lock downs go away, and travel resumes, we will see demand go up quickly. Longer term, however, I have no interest in this sector though. I see more and more electric and hybrid vehicles in the future. Too many people are drinking the climate change koolaid. Also, in the business sector, I see about half the business travel never coming back. They've all geared up and gotten used to the Zoom meetings etc. I see it being an uphill battle long term for the sector. And if prices do go up at all, I see countries just increasing production to move product. Marginal diminishing returns in other words.
Progressives are the most open minded, tolerant, and inclusive people on the planet, as long as you agree with everything they say, and do exactly as you're told.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,179
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,179 |
I'm holding tight until after the election. General consensus around here is that if Biden wins, the energy sector will take a wait and see approach to react to what that moron does, or doesn't do.
It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,258 |
I watched a segment were they projected global production, a couple years and we will be short again unless they keep drilling. Hint, they won't keep drilling at these prices. It's always been boom/bust, there is no replacement. Two years out I'm a bull, short term ( couple months) I'm a bear. Demand will grow in Asia even as demand slows in the US. I'll probably be a buyer the next few months of good dividend yielding energy stocks. Anything beyond the obvious choices that you’re looking at? I like the mid streams and pipelines like epd, kmi. Product always needs moved and they run like a REIT. I also like producers with some nat gas like xom and chevron. Drillers and service are still a ways out IMO
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid" John Wayne
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Joined: May 2004
Posts: 5,154
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 5,154 |
About 5 yrs ago oil was 40 bucks and the energy stocks were twice the price they are now. We dont have the oil glut everyone thinks we do, crude oil is inching up and natural gas has all but doubled since July from $1.53 to about $ 2.85 . There is no reason for energy stocks to be this low. I have been seeing more jets in the air, traffic is up and rail transport is up 1.9% last week from the week before. Energy stocks are way undervalued. I keep buying a little more here and there but it keeps going down.
But the fruits of the spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness,faithfulness, Gentleness and self control. Against such things there is no law. Galations 5: 22&23
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,539
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,539 |
When I retired I set up my portfolio so that I do not have to nickel and dime it or, frankly, watch it much which I did daily while working. As a senior manager retiree of Royal Dutch Shell I hold a pretty good chunk of stock as it was a healthy piece of my compensation. I still hold it well down and with a hugely reduced dividend. I don't need the money and will just ride it out as I have done for years.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 12,145
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 12,145 |
Electric vehicles are still a niche until battery technology improves so I'm not ready to declare the death of the internal combustion engine yet. When this Covid garbage is over oil will be back I'm confident. While "green" energy is all the rage in the U.S. and Europe, China and India don't give a damn about it and they will be buying a lot of oil when things are rolling again.
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Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 10,671
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 10,671 |
Electric vehicles are still a niche until battery technology improves so I'm not ready to declare the death of the internal combustion engine yet. When this Covid garbage is over oil will be back I'm confident. While "green" energy is all the rage in the U.S. and Europe, China and India don't give a damn about it and they will be buying a lot of oil when things are rolling again. Gas vehicles don't have to be dead though. Even if there's slowly eroding demand, that could be enough to put a ceiling on the sector long term. I don't have to like it to see the writing on the wall. Plus, I can tell you that telecommuting is here to stay for a lot of businesses. Even after the lock downs are over, there will be a net loss off business commuters.
Progressives are the most open minded, tolerant, and inclusive people on the planet, as long as you agree with everything they say, and do exactly as you're told.
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