As someone who does have an economic degree, and not from the University of Boston, let me try to address you concerns, along with some others expressed in this thread.
First, there is no Democrat plan to crash our economy. They are just to ignorant to understand their policy consequences.
Do I expect us to see real inflation. Yes. Do I expect true hyperinflation to hit the U.S. No............................
A.S.: If you at present were 8% in oil, 14% in crypto, 22% in Precious metal, and 16% in cash with the rest scattered about in such as retail and tech what would you do now? Not depending on the money now or the future several years out. Planning on giving it to my heirs if nothing gets in the way. By the way, the crypto part started out very small and blossomed so I'm not into it with out of pocket money. This is self directed IRA. So I guess I'll be forced to use some of it in time.
Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
On the other hand, maybe it's not all that surprising.
You occupy such a small world.
What book are you getting those digs from? Are you just going down the list?
Hawkeye, Old Cooter is off the rails these days, seems all he wants to do is be a contrarian and fight with everyone. Must be fallout from the "covid" derangement syndrome..... kinda like Trump derangement only different....
Originally Posted by Judman PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha
As someone who does have an economic degree, and not from the University of Boston, let me try to address you concerns, along with some others expressed in this thread.
First, there is no Democrat plan to crash our economy. They are just to ignorant to understand their policy consequences.
Do I expect us to see real inflation. Yes. Do I expect true hyperinflation to hit the U.S. No............................
A.S.: If you at present were 8% in oil, 14% in crypto, 22% in Precious metal, and 16% in cash with the rest scattered about in such as retail and tech what would you do now? Not depending on the money now or the future several years out. Planning on giving it to my heirs if nothing gets in the way. By the way, the crypto part started out very small and blossomed so I'm not into it with out of pocket money. This is self directed IRA. So I guess I'll be forced to use some of it in time.
Since this goes out to a broadcast audience, I'll address your questions how I see general macro trends. Biden will do everything he can to shut down new oil production in this country. There's not much he can do to shut in existing wells. This brake on the growth in domestic supply should impact prices and favor the large producers with existing well, who also have the ability to seek new sources outside the U.S. Warren Buffet must see this in a similar light based in his recent purchases of Chevron and Exxon.
Historically, Precious metals, specifically gold and silver prices correlate to the positive rate of change in interest rates. In other words, as interest rates increase rapidly, so do gold and silver prices. So I would expect the current fundamental conditions to favor Gold and Silver, but from a technical standpoint, neither chart looks good at the moment for the short to intermediate term trade.
As for crypto, over the long term I expect that vast majority of crypto currencies to go defunct and become worthless. This is not different than any other new asset class, but still, it's a good reason to proceed with caution.
Keep in mind I'm not saying all crypto will go under, not that money can't be made, but crypto's have their own under appreciate risk. Here's an example. Bit coin is constructed to has a theoretical maximum number of coins....ever. So what happened it it became too hard for miner to create new coins, and hence dollars, out of thin air? Bit coin "forked" and they created Bitcoin Cash. "It's not inflation, it's a whole new currency". In other words, the Bitcoin community created a whole new substitute product, neither of which have any underlying earnings, or generate any cashflows, etc. They are just a private fiat currency that consumes electricity, with 100% faith based price. So long as there's always a bigger fool, prices can continue to go up, until there are no more fools. At least tulip bulbs could be used to grow tulips which can be sold at a market, which was the basis for the tulip mania. With bitcoin, you can't even grow tulips.....
With that said, I have friends and coworkers who've made good money on Crypto's. They primarily stick to the established currencies on the established exchanges and trade them from a strictly technical standpoint based on the same chart patterns prevalent in stocks and futures trading. Some have done well staying on the bleeding edge of what's becoming the new "hot" currency just as they are taking off, but they do so knowing they are taking on significant risks generally for shot term gains.
As of today, I don't like either the current price point, or chart patterns for Bitcoin or Ether, and too many of the biggest fools I know, i.e. the shoe shine boy and tow truck driver types are asking me about them to be comfortable establishing a new positions. Of course you situation is different, so you'll have to take that into consideration.
Real-estate. Right now their two kinds of real-estate I don't want to be in. Office space and housing units support workers in dense office space environments. It appears to me the work from home trend is not going away. Companies are seeing workers remain productive from home, and are looking to cut office space costs. Some major Wall Street firms have announced they will let their employees work from anywhere in the country with a reliable internet connect. This is not good for demand for office space and housing units in places like NYC and San Francisco not retail space in those environments.
As for tech, it's the tech companies facilitating these trends, and demand for their products continue. Try to buy a CPU or Video card for a build right now. Good luck. Our local Microcenter has lines every morning for people looking for card and CPU's. They are almost as scarce as powder and primers.
I also expect people to continue spending more on their homes. If you spend more time in it, might as well make it better. Same goes Marxist policies continue to adversely impact home building. If you can't buy new, got to fix up what you already have....or at least as much as you can with lumber prices at record highs.
Those are a few of my thoughts on the subject. I'm open to well though out contrary views. These are complex subjects with a lot of moving pieces.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
On the other hand, maybe it's not all that surprising.
You occupy such a small world.
What book are you getting those digs from? Are you just going down the list?
Hawkeye, Old Cooter is off the rails these days, seems all he wants to do is be a contrarian and fight with everyone. Must be fallout from the "covid" derangement syndrome..... kinda like Trump derangement only different....
Lately I think he's been drinking from the same well as Happy Camper.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
I am fixing sell my 2019 RAM 3500. I may well get more for it than I paid for it, after driving it for over a year. Inflation? I have no idea, but it isn’t anything I have ever seen before or expected. My bricklayer sold his truck, like mine but a DRW, back to the dealer he bought it from for 10k more than he paid for it. And they called him asking to buy it, more than once. Lot of weird things going on now, hard for average joe to make hard sense of some of it.
Our retired military pensions and social security get a once a year COLA raise. Doesn’t make a lot of difference to me how much it goes up. No sense worrying over things we can’t control.
My biggest fear is when I die my wife will sell my guns for what I told her they cost.
antelope_sniper: thanks for your take on things. I've been at the farm setting wildfires so I couldn't come back to get your answer. These are interesting times. As to folks working from home, I'm fearful for those folks when their employers figure out they can hire a couple of Indians that can turn out the work of one American and pay the two Indians no benefits and a third of the money the one American makes. We are one world now in a lot of ways and business pays as little as possible for inputs. Again thanks.
Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Undeniably you are a smart man and well-reasoned in much of what you say.
Where are you and I differ in opinion is the number of moving parts... and using historical norms as a baseline for future predictions.
The troubled waters of 2021 are uncharted.
The moral compass of America in 2021 is a tiny sliver of the moral compass of any time before.
There is virtually no trust in any aspect of government by anyone in 2021. Trust in the government is it an unprecedented low.
The fiscal fragility of American citizens is absurdly naive. Reliance on the woefully pathetic decisions of the government is at an all-time high.
In no way is it my desire to dissuade you from sharing your expert opinions. Frankly I enjoyed reading them a great deal.
I believe I once heard if you live in the past you will lose the future.
I know that I have heard America constantly fights combat Wars based on the lessons they learned in the last war. And each time there is great pain in learning how to fight the current War.
Many will say war and capitalism are not related at all. I will say that both come from the same Foundation and both have the same result... if successful.
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What I would enjoy hearing you speak more about is global economics.
If the US dollar is the strongest currency much as a particular basketball player is the strongest member of the team obviously feeding your best basketball player the ball every chance you get will result in the highest scoring game.
So as the US dollar is weakened with Fiat... obviously the other countries are also weakened.
How does this play out in the future?
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
On the other hand, maybe it's not all that surprising.
You occupy such a small world.
What book are you getting those digs from? Are you just going down the list?
From your pitiful scrawlings I’d surmise that you’ve never been further than 2 full tanks of gas away from yo Momma and I mean no disrespect to anyone’s mother.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
On the other hand, maybe it's not all that surprising.
You occupy such a small world.
What book are you getting those digs from? Are you just going down the list?
Hawkeye, Old Cooter is off the rails these days, seems all he wants to do is be a contrarian and fight with everyone. Must be fallout from the "covid" derangement syndrome..... kinda like Trump derangement only different....
Tell me truly, Two Dogs F’king, why do you put yourself through these vain ordeals that you pursue as of late?
“Ignore” is your friend. Use it and free yourself from this thing that so deeply bothers you.
Pax.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
From your pitiful scrawlings I’d surmise that you’ve never been further than 2 full tanks of gas away from yo Momma and I mean no disrespect to anyone’s mother.
Well, I pretty well see it like AS.... Cash make some good points. Seems that I get concerned about “black swans” and such. Those unexpected events that we don’t see coming. COVID is just one example.... These unexpected events ...when they come.... can have great and dramatic impact. I expect more to come.....
AS is plenty knowledgeable and I like to hear his opinion and I agree Cash makes some pretty good points. But I do believe in looking at the past to predict the future. Watering down money and debt are nothing new, it's just being done on a much larger scale and across borders now. The bankers of the world are plotting something and it probably ain't good. I liken it to a small local banker letting a property owner in so deep that all he can do is give up his land. To the banker.
Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
