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Originally Posted by srwshooter
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low


This point occurred to me about a month ago and I did some analysis to better understand the disparity. I looked at a few in demand towns, mostly small towns, to sample their housing prices now and going back to up to 10 years ago. Calculated up the mortgages using the historical average interest rates and home prices and today's average rates and home prices. Compared the total amounts paid over the term of each loan and even with today's lower rates, I found that you're going to pay a good piece more now then you would have say in 2015, 2010, etc. I didn't go further then 2010 so not sure where it might start to level out.

I wonder if things might cool off as companies return remote working employees to the office. I know a few people that really think they'll no longer be geographically tied to a location, because of employment, and are adjusting their lives as a result including purchasing home elsewhere. If companies decide remote working isn't the wave of the future, the tide might start to retreat in many of these highly desired locations and return to major employment centers in the country.

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Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.



The Rona likes hiding behind tree's in the deep woods, it's sneaky like that.


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As a forester on the raw material side of things it's been a real interesting year to say the least. I think regionally, we've really suffered blows by losing a paper mill who was a major purchaser of low grade wood in the Northeast region. Not having low grade markets makes it awfully tough to produce sawlogs. Because realistically you can't go onto a woodlot and just cut sawlogs. There's going to be residual tops and debris that you need the low grade markets for in order for the operation to be feasible. Loggers all across the Northeast have been straddled by weak low grade markets the last year which is absolutely no doubt having affects on raw saw logs going into saw mills. As a sawmill; demand for lumber is sky high going out the door, but the log supply coming in is also very low. It's the perfect storm. The prices some of these mills are paying on raw logs is astronomical. They're desperate for wood.


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Originally Posted by GuideGun
As a forester on the raw material side of things it's been a real interesting year to say the least. I think regionally, we've really suffered blows by losing a paper mill who was a major purchaser of low grade wood in the Northeast region. Not having low grade markets makes it awfully tough to produce sawlogs. Because realistically you can't go onto a woodlot and just cut sawlogs. There's going to be residual tops and debris that you need the low grade markets for in order for the operation to be feasible. Loggers all across the Northeast have been straddled by weak low grade markets the last year which is absolutely no doubt having affects on raw saw logs going into saw mills. As a sawmill; demand for lumber is sky high going out the door, but the log supply coming in is also very low. It's the perfect storm. The prices some of these mills are paying on raw logs is astronomical. They're desperate for wood.



I think in west most low quality wood goes into chips and OSB. The mills had a hard push filling the log yards going into spring breakup so they wouldn't run out with the high prices. They closed down one of our OSB plant in 2018 and consolidated operations, I'll bet they wish they had kept two plants going now.


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Originally Posted by Triggernosis
I'm thinking about 12 months from now, when the liberal half of the country figures out that Sleepy Joe ain't gonna save them and the COVID money stops coming, the economy is going to tank. Hard! It will make 2008 look like a bump in the road. Then, building will come to a halt and material prices will drop drastically.
Just a guess, though. And I work as a professional meteorologist in my real life, so I'm used to being right in my predictions only 51% of the time. 😊


And still hold on to a job ! cry


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Time to roll back the Canadian lumber tariffs.

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How do you build a house remotely? Seems like the buck stops there.

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Lumber tariffs aren't the problem. I'm in Mississippi and timber prices are at an almost all time low around here, yet lumber prices are an all time high. You can't give away timber right now. All the Covid unemployment extensions and stimulus money have mill workers sitting home getting more money than they can make working, labor shortages are the problem.

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I was reading a good article about the Ga timber industry and it was claiming the lumber yards getting bought up from canadian companies and pretty much becoming monopolies. The mom and pop smaller ones cant compete. And if you want your timber cut, there just aren't as many within a 100 miles radius of you as there used to be and these big companies and offering the land/timber owner pennies...take it or leave it type of stuff. There just isn't any competition anymore. Land/timber owners are bending over and taking it.

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Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.

LOL!

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metal studs might be the way to go now.


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Another fugking sky is falling thread. Yippee. Where the fugk is Roy Ballz


LMAO


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The latest version of the Bologna Flu originates in persimmon trees. I read it on da innanet. !!! LMAO


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Originally Posted by WiFowler
Originally Posted by Triggernosis
I'm thinking about 12 months from now, when the liberal half of the country figures out that Sleepy Joe ain't gonna save them and the COVID money stops coming, the economy is going to tank. Hard! It will make 2008 look like a bump in the road. Then, building will come to a halt and material prices will drop drastically.
Just a guess, though. And I work as a professional meteorologist in my real life, so I'm used to being right in my predictions only 51% of the time. 😊


And still hold on to a job ! cry

Yep, anything less than 51% and a coin flip will suffice - hence, I'd be out of work. ☺️

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I live in a town of about 8 or 9 thousand. About a month ago there was a total of six houses on the market. It has gotten a little better but not much. Aren't much for building permits either. Rental rates are sky high compared to income. Around here, nobody is building 300 k spec homes.

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Originally Posted by 673
Well, OSB was 10 bucks a sheet, its now 60 bucks.
They log the timber above my house, take it to the mill about 10 miles away, sell it back to me, and its now 60 bucks??
So that is a 600% increase lol.


The price for timber is at an all time low...to the point that it's not worth selling.


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Originally Posted by Jim_Conrad
Loggers are terrified of covid.


Yepp... and those fearsome spotted owls.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



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Originally Posted by 673
Well, OSB was 10 bucks a sheet, its now 60 bucks.
They log the timber above my house, take it to the mill about 10 miles away, sell it back to me, and its now 60 bucks??
So that is a 600% increase lol.



Not the much here but give it a few months, was $28 yesterday

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Not sure how too many people can afford to build a house right now.

$60/sheet for OSB? Yikes.

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Originally Posted by srwshooter
you will pay more upfront but save a bundle on interest. rates are low


That's true, if you're financing. But, if you're gonna pay cash, now is not the time to build.

Just my .02


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