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Not sure that was addressed to me but if it was I agree with you. I do not have much faith in the dollar especially given our huge national debt burden. Its value has eroded significantly for years against goods and services but not so much, historically speaking, against other currencies.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad
Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
[quote=Hastings]Weren't tulips, ostriches, and other big bubbles destined to fail because of the unlimited potential supply? Is there a finite supply of bitcoin? I am curious because I don't understand it. I bought RIOT Blockchain at somewhere between $2 and $3 last year and it went almost to $80 and today closed at $48. Wish I had bought 20,000 shares instead of 200.


I do not see how some fictional asset with no intrinsic value can possibly be worth anything in the long run unless it is backed by a government as legal tender.


This seems to me that you imply faith because it is backed buy Government, Financial Institutions, and Intrinsic Value!

Not attacking you, just saying what you see as faults in Crypto is the same faults in basically every other currency.


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Well gentlemen, I am very late to this cryptocurrency thing. But, for a retired mill worker, I am going to put some real money into it. I think it will allow me to fund lots of charities.


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Originally Posted by Ringman
Well gentlemen, I am very late to this cryptocurrency thing. But, for a retired mill worker, I am going to put some real money into it. I think it will allow me to fund lots of charities.


Start small, make your initial investment back and let ride. Somethings you really need to CYA on, this to me is one of them. I hate to see anyone lose.


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Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
Originally Posted by Milwroad
Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
[quote=Hastings]Weren't tulips, ostriches, and other big bubbles destined to fail because of the unlimited potential supply? Is there a finite supply of bitcoin? I am curious because I don't understand it. I bought RIOT Blockchain at somewhere between $2 and $3 last year and it went almost to $80 and today closed at $48. Wish I had bought 20,000 shares instead of 200.


I do not see how some fictional asset with no intrinsic value can possibly be worth anything in the long run unless it is backed by a government as legal tender.


This seems to me that you imply faith because it is backed buy Government, Financial Institutions, and Intrinsic Value!

Not attacking you, just saying what you see as faults in Crypto is the same faults in basically every other currency.


Yes, you are certainly correct to a point. The big difference is that anyone can create a crypto currency. What will the value be when there are 500 different ones running around? There can only be one legal tender (for the most part) and that gives it a value (dependent on its creation and the soundness of the government to be sure as you suggest) but a basic value non the less. And please understand I am not telling anyone not to invest in crypto currencies. I have done so myself. I am just trying to say they are a speculative asset and that is ALL they are and when their use in exchange is questioned that value will certainly be 0.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad
Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
Originally Posted by Milwroad
Originally Posted by MontanaCreekHunter
[quote=Hastings]Weren't tulips, ostriches, and other big bubbles destined to fail because of the unlimited potential supply? Is there a finite supply of bitcoin? I am curious because I don't understand it. I bought RIOT Blockchain at somewhere between $2 and $3 last year and it went almost to $80 and today closed at $48. Wish I had bought 20,000 shares instead of 200.


I do not see how some fictional asset with no intrinsic value can possibly be worth anything in the long run unless it is backed by a government as legal tender.


This seems to me that you imply faith because it is backed buy Government, Financial Institutions, and Intrinsic Value!

Not attacking you, just saying what you see as faults in Crypto is the same faults in basically every other currency.


Yes, you are certainly correct to a point. The big difference is that anyone can create a crypto currency. What will the value be when there are 500 different ones running around? There can only be one legal tender (for the most part) and that gives it a value (dependent on its creation and the soundness of the government to be sure as you suggest) but a basic value non the less. And please understand I am not telling anyone not to invest in crypto currencies. I have done so myself. I am just trying to say they are a speculative asset and that is ALL they are and when their use in exchange is questioned that value will certainly be 0.


What investment outside of TIME is not speculative?

I hear what you are saying and agree for the most part with you.


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Yes, you are right, none are sure things. Maybe if someone came up with the cure for cancer (or the one gun or caliber we could all agree is the greatest gun/caliber of all) that would not be speculative but in the end even investments in the best companies end up being worthless. As you point out it is all a matter of timing. I was just trying to clarify what people are actually buying when they buy bitcoin. No question the bitcoin craze has driven up its value. Many people have made a lot and many more might make money on it going forward. It is all a matter of risk preference. People who are highly risk averse will not invest in crypto currencies. People with a little more risk tolerance will.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad


I think perhaps in part that was the case. Not the case for the wildcat bank notes though. One problem with bitcoin is its fictionalized creation. This is just a "thing" crated by solving computer puzzles. What is that "thing". It is definitely a fad and people are trading it and that creates value. But what is the intrinsic value? I could be wrong but I do not see how some fictional asset with no intrinsic value can possibly be worth anything in the long run unless it is backed by a government as legal tender. The mob might like it but once they realize it is really worthless they will use some other less traceable asset. Kind of like the dotcom stocks of the late 1990s that traded at high prices and then disappeared.



This is the problem I have understanding it (or maybe I do understand it after all....). It is nothing. Numbers on a computer screen. Created by someone (who?) out of thin air. Yes, I know that a Federal Reserve note is no different, especially since most "money" is probably not even physical, but numbers on a screen, created from nothing by each bank that loans out a buck. Bitcoin doesn't really exist. And as has been stated, it competes with governments who want you to use their currency, not anyone else's. Frankly, I'm kind of shocked it has been allowed to continue for as long as it has.

Doesn't really matter to me, personally, just curiosity. I'm too poor to do much "investing" in anything. wink

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Can't really stop it. It is not counterfeit money it is just an alternative asset people use to barter for goods.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad
like the Dutch tulip fad


One thing for sure is that anyone who equates BTC and the Dutch tulip bubble is an imbecile who knows almost nothing about BTC or the Dutch tulip bubble.

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Originally Posted by Stickfight
Originally Posted by Milwroad
like the Dutch tulip fad


One thing for sure is that anyone who equates BTC and the Dutch tulip bubble is an imbecile who knows almost nothing about BTC or the Dutch tulip bubble.


Please explain. Apparently many of us need to be enlightened. "Bank of America analysts warned on Friday that the world’s popular cryptocurrency “blows the doors off prior bubbles”, such as the dotcom boom and gold in the 1970s Others are pointing further back, to the Dutch tulip mania in the 17th century that ended in tears. "

" JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon, the longest-serving chief executive on Wall Street, may have toned down his views of bitcoin since he declared in 2017 that it was a “fraud” and that he would fire any of his employees caught trading the digital currency."

Yes there are technological trading differences and some differences in how bitcoin is harvested, but beyond that what is there?

Last edited by Milwroad; 04/16/21.

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Originally Posted by Milwroad
Apparently many of us need to be enlightened.


You nailed that one.

If only the many were smart enough to ask questions rather than try to answer them.

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Bitcoin is simple. It can't go down unless some fool decides to take a profit.



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...or flee to an alternative speculative asset. I am sort of amazed that so many think bitcoin is this miracle investment. It is a highly risky asset that has to offer high returns as a risk premium. Only two things are keeping it afloat. Unbridled speculation in this asset and the fact certain parties use it as a medium of exchange. I think it is more the former than the latter.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad
...or flee to an alternative speculative asset. I am sort of amazed that so many think bitcoin is this miracle investment. It is a highly risky asset that has to offer high returns as a risk premium. Only two things are keeping it afloat. Unbridled speculation in this asset and the fact certain parties use it as a medium of exchange. I think it is more the former than the latter.


Try listening to the Greg Foss interview above, and start at about 47 min mark.


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If you work 40 hrs/wk: at 5% inflation and after 5 years, you need a 28% pay raise or to work 44 more hours (*one full extra week* per month+) to make up the difference.

This is inflation
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Not sure what point you are making. Might bitcoin be part of a portfolio? Yes, as should all non-redundant speculative assets belong in a market portfolio.


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Originally Posted by Milwroad
Not sure what point you are making. Might bitcoin be part of a portfolio? Yes, as should all non-redundant speculative assets belong in a market portfolio.


I was attempting to discuss Greg's conclusions.


@jameslavish

If you work 40 hrs/wk: at 5% inflation and after 5 years, you need a 28% pay raise or to work 44 more hours (*one full extra week* per month+) to make up the difference.

This is inflation
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Ah yes, good to do.


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It seems to me that folks who buy Bitcoin are looking at fiat currency and their faith in those who manage it and saying to themselves that globally, they have more faith in the management of bitcoin than the money printing and foolish spending of the greatest sovereigns, let alone the banana republic that we don't tend to think about day to day. That it is a global phenomenon will tend to buoy it up over time, IMO.

That it is limited in supply seems to virtually guarantee the confidence of its purchasers.

It seems the major threat to Bitcoin would be vastly improved government monetary policy. Which does not seem likely in the near future.


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