Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Manhattan office vacancy rate hits 16.3%

"The office vacancy rate in Manhattan has hit its highest level since 1994 and will likely hit “unprecedented levels” in the near future, a report from a global real estate firm has found.

CNN reports the global real estate service firm Cushman & Wakefield found that the office vacancy rate in Manhattan reached 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021, up from 11.3 percent a year ago.

The company said it expects the rate to continue to rise to "unprecedented levels in the coming months” and drive down asking rents “substantially.”"

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...e-space-reaches-highest-level-since-1994

Not surprising.

I wonder if the rates fall low enough will it bring in new customers, or is "business" done with NYC?

I can see a good business opportunity there for re-developing commercial property into residential

No, no, no.

New York is fine.

I'd bet it's not just Manhattan (although it could fall in the river for all I care).

The Genie is out of the bottle as far as the WFH model. I know I and 95% of my company has been WFH for 14 months now and we've proven it to be efficient and secure. Our leadership is now considering making it a permanent option for many employees, and why not? If 80% or more of the workforce can WFH, it allows management so many more options.

I would not want to be heavily invested in commercial real estate at this point. YMMV.

my company , at least in America, is having its strongest year ever, and thats with WFH being mandated - all of our offices in the US are empty.

They are already closing smaller offices and renegotiating rates on bigger ones. There is a downside to it though as well - the perks we used to have at larger offices - an onsite cafeteria, fully stocked coffee stations on each floor, catered meetings, etc - all of that is going to be gone as well.

I don't have a long commute so part of me wants to go back into the office, especially with the freedom on choosing the days I go into work. But a part time model doesn't really make the office all that appealing - you'll never know who will be in the office, so I suspect all the offices will just become meeting spaces. If we go into the office at all, they'll need to mandate times for us, otherwise we might as well just work at home and video conference

I agree that office spaces rates are going to nosedive. You're going to have to offer something substantial to motivate people to use the office space post pandemic.

WFH is here to stay and it’s a micromanager’s nightmare. Which is funny, because they’re the first ones to set up a home office.

Daughter worked in Chicago up until a few months ago, they abandoned the office March 2020 and have been working remotely ever since........... taking a hard look at whether to pay the$10K/month or continue from 'home'....

She has been in NYC since leaving Chicago, and the much the same is going on in NY, people are leaving NYC, living and working folk, and have NO intention to go back.............

The big liberal cities are bleeding tax payers................

Now, if we can only keep them from voting like azz-hats when they move to red States..............

The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.

Who is going to live there? Seems like everyone in NYC is getting out if there. Unfortunately, many of them are coming this way.

Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.

Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.

When it became obvious that WFH was working so well for so many, it occurred to me that REITs might eventually take a serious hit.

What goes around comes around eventually, and at some point having a physical office might just become trendy again, totally apart from economics, and if rents really go down and make it affordable, a smaller footprint might become the norm. Think of the money that’ll be saved when companies’ existing leases run out. I’ll bet commercial cleaning companies are feeling the pinch now.

My son manages a landscaping branch, and they have some customer locations that are essentially abandoned. Grass still needs to be cut etc, but snow removal and ice treatment is definitely optional. At what point do these sites get converted to something else?

Yep. You are correct, sir. Just stating the current facts within our organization.

my buddy is a hiring manager for an IT company and he said he is having trouble hiring people who will work in the office. everyone got a taste of WFH and it has completely changed peoples attitudes. "You want me to work IN the office??. Thats outrageous" . i think people are getting spoiled and feeling entitled. not good.

i just changed jobs and am glad i have the option to WFH or not. for now i am home because nobody else is in the office. probably start a hybrid model here in a couple months. i've been WFH for over a year and wouldn't mind 2-3 days in the office a week.

as for productivity, i got my reservations whether it is better or worse. for me, it depends on the day.

Was talking with the paralegal working on my father’s estate yesterday. She said she and her fiancé were planning on leaving the People’s Republic of Maryland soon. I told her they were welcome here as long as they didn’t vote Democrap. She said, “No worries there!”

WFH can certainly identify good leaders and good employees.

No way would I invest in a REIT right now. Companies love dumping overhead, and the work from home narrative fits the bill. I can see existing office space being converted into housing for immigrants. An exist office building would warehouse people nicely. Biden’s border problem is solved!

that's another thing - you get on a video conference call now and half the people are in Florida. "Home" is wherever you want to be.

My grandson does software engineering and analytics. Of course, he can work from anywhere. They hadn’t been working from home for long, before the word went out: everyone was to be logged off for the week no later than noon on Friday. They were getting more done by that time WFH, than what had been accomplished with everyone in the office for 40 hours.

yep, the word is the next thing for us is a 4 day work week unless you are customer facing.

I won't complain if it happens. No one schedules meetings on Fridays anymore as it is thru word of mouth.