"According to a 2013 article published by the USGS, there are approximately 7.4 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in the combined Bakken and Three Forks Formations in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. This is an incredibly large amount of oil. These assessments of the two formations represent a 100% increase in projected recoverable oil from the 2008 assessment of 3.65 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Bakken Formation. Here is a link to the USGS article for your review. USGS Bakken and Three Forks Assessment."
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
There is probably more data somewhere on that site. If I recall correctly, the peak rig count in North Dakota was 218 in May, 2012. I don’t think we have been over 100 since sometime in 2014-2015, and mostly well under that.
EIA raises oil price forecast for June, Q3 2021 In its June short-term outlook the EIA raised its Brent price forecast to average $69/bbl in June and $68/bbl in 2021 third quarter, $4/bbl and $5/bbl increases.
OGJ editors Jun 8th, 2021 Eia Source: EIA
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent price forecast for the coming months. EIA now expect Brent prices to average $69/bbl in June and $68/bb in third-quarter 2021, $4/bbl and $5/bbl higher, respectively, than last month’s forecast. But larger downward oil price pressures are expected to emerge later in 2021 and into 2022 as forecast global oil supply outpaces slowing oil demand growth.
This price forecast keeps prices near or slightly below current levels through the third quarter and incorporates recent price increases and EIA’s forecast of mostly balanced oil markets in the coming months.
Given announced increases in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), EIA expects production to grow more rapidly in second-half 2021 to keep pace with rising demand. In the forecast, global oil consumption rises by 2.8 million b/d from second-quarter to second-half 2021 while global oil production rises 4.3 million b/d during the same period, balancing the 1.5 million b/d of global oil inventory draws during the second quarter.
EIA noted, however, that the forecast “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Global oil consumption, supply
Despite rising COVID-19 case counts in some countries, particularly India, global oil demand remained higher than supply in May, contributing to continued global withdrawals from inventories of crude oil and petroleum products. However, EIA estimates withdrawals fell to 1.2 million b/d in May, compared with average monthly withdrawals of 2.1 million b/d since June 2020.
EIA estimates that 96.2 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in May, an increase of 11.9 million b/d from May 2020 but 3.7 million b/d less than in May 2019.
Scheduled increases in production targets contributed to OPEC crude oil production reaching 25.5 million b/d in May, its highest level since April 2020. This increase brought global supply to an estimated 95 million b/d compared with consumption of 96.2 million b/d. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will increase to an average of 28 million b/d in third-quarter 2021.
In this STEO, EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, a 5.4-million b/d increase from 2020. Global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d.
EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will average 26.9 million b/d in 2021 and 28.7 million b/d in 2022. OPEC crude oil production in the forecast rises from 25 million b/d in April to an average of 28 million b/d in third-quarter 2021.
The expectation of rising OPEC production is primarily based on the assumption that OPEC will raise production by about 1 million b/d in both June and in July in response to rising global oil demand and seasonal increases in oil consumption for power generation for some OPEC members. It also reflects an assumption that Iran’s crude oil production will continue to increase this year. Although sanctions that target Iran’s crude oil exports remain in place, crude oil exports—according to ClipperData LLC—and production from Iran are up from most of 2020.
US oil market
The US economy continues to recover after reaching multiyear lows in second-quarter 2020. The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. US gross domestic product declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes US GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2021 and by 4.9% in 2022.
EIA expects US gasoline consumption will average 9.1 million b/d this summer (April–September), which is 1.3 million b/d more than last summer but still more than 400,000 b/d less than summer 2019. Weekly consumption data reflect the Colonial Pipeline outage and subsequent increase in gasoline demand, but consumption both before and after this event indicate more gasoline demand than EIA had previously forecast. EIA expects US gasoline consumption to average 8.7 million b/d in for all of 2021 and 9.0 million b/d in 2022.
According to EIA’s most recent data, US crude oil production averaged 11.2 million b/d in March 2021, an increase of 1.4 million b/d from February. The March rise indicates that the production outages caused by the February winter freeze were temporary and that production came back onlinew quickly. Because prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remain above $60/bbl during 2021 in the current forecast, EIA expects that producers will drill and complete enough wells to raise 2022 production from 2021. EIA estimates that 2022 production will average 11.8 million b/d, up from a forecast average of 11.1 million b/d in 2021.
They can start pumping again after Biden lets OPEC and the Russians run the price of oil up high enough.
That's what they do. If a well isn't producing enough to make it worthwhile, they shut it down. Or if there is a huge surplus of oil on the market, that drives prices down, and they shut off some flow to bring it back up.
Both sides of the coin are the same.... Heads they win, tails we lose.
Those multi-million dollar salaries and bonuses don't grow on trees ya know.
Last edited by las; 06/09/21.
The only true cost of having a dog is its death. "It would have been a good distance shot if they hadn't been so far away". Seth Kantner in "Shopping for Porcupine"