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Farm land prices? #16270095 07/21/21
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wabigoon Online Content OP
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How high, and when will it peak out?


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16270201 07/21/21
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Prices now dictate that it's not really farmland anymore.

You'd need more than one lifetime to ever see any blue sky from agriculture use.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: rockinbbar] #16272332 07/21/21
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Originally Posted by rockinbbar
Prices now dictate that it's not really farmland anymore.

You'd need more than one lifetime to ever see any blue sky from agriculture use.


I may just be a dumb Aggie, but I can’t figure it out. And we’re getting yields well above average, and not paying for fertilizer. Still can’t pay a note and make living, let alone replace equipment.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16272774 07/22/21
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I recall back in the 1970s, my dad passed up buying several pieces of farmland. His math said that an average crop would not make the payments, let alone machinery, seed cost etc. Those that bought it, lost it to bankruptcy several years later. Dads math was correct.
Seems today that lots of farm land being purchased is done so by non farmers. And those buyers are paying cash for the land. Income from crops while nice is not necessary to retain ownership. Presume that these buyers are betting on long term investment and/or diversifying into some hard assets vs all stocks and bonds.
When will prices peak, I do not know, but would guess we are very close to peak.

Last edited by dale06; 07/22/21.

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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16273199 07/22/21
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While our commodity prices are up nicely, much better than the past few years, I don't think this is the entire reason for higher land prices. With a bout of massive inflation on the horizon I'm thinking folks with the cash are looking for places to put it that will keep some kind of value.

Land. "They're not making any more of it." Quoted from many an old fart in the neighborhood.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16273329 07/22/21
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It is a very complex question with so many variables to consider. Back in the 1980s I saw neighbors and some relatives buying farm land and equipment at 15 to 18% interest. The bankers were pushing them to get big. When corn prices dropped to 3.50/bushel and milk went to $13.00 per hundred weight the law of diminishing returns buried a lot of farmers. Fortunately my Dad did not participate in the get big scenario. When I got out of college my Dad and I formed a corporation and were able to secure low interest rate loans.

We targeted the small farm operations going out of business that because of the topography, the land was about 60/40. 60% timber/pasture, 40% tillable on average. To pay off the debt we logged the timber, sold some of the non-tillable to city folks wanting to recreate and hunt and enrolled a lot of the poorer ground in the CRP program. CRP is a good way to pay off a farm.

When the dairy herd was sold we had to look for different revenue. We continued logging and went with beef cows and crops also, land speculation. When Dad passed away I brought on a hired man to help with logging and farm chores. My farm equipment was ageing and some needed to be replaced, but I put a pencil to the situation and found I could hire custom work cheaper than purchasing good used equipment or new. So the land prices in my area with a combination of recreation and tillable track higher than just tillable land. I don't see that peaking yet.

Last edited by roundoak; 07/22/21.

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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: muleshoe] #16273876 07/22/21
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Originally Posted by muleshoe
While our commodity prices are up nicely, much better than the past few years, I don't think this is the entire reason for higher land prices. With a bout of massive inflation on the horizon I'm thinking folks with the cash are looking for places to put it that will keep some kind of value.

Land. "They're not making any more of it." Quoted from many an old fart in the neighborhood.



Solid way of looking at it.

Now, when buying agriculture land, if you can afford it, it'll be worth more in the future.

The investment now is more in the land, rather than what the land can produce in agriculture.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16275609 07/23/21
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Fifty years plus, I've been told it takes an eighty, along with a bought eighty to pay for it.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16277870 07/23/21
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50 k an acre for almond orchard ground in California’s San Joaquin Valley…..craziness.

Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16278142 07/24/21
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It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16278949 07/24/21
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Originally Posted by wabigoon
It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


Not unless you go to the Nevada desert 👍…. My grandfather had a 100 acre piece with a cheap rental and 30 year old almond trees that needed to be replanted …. my mom and her siblings sold it last year for 40,000 an acre…..guy who bought it already farms about 2000 acres…. It’s a different game, huge input costs….. almonds average about 3000lbs an acre and last year sold about 1.90 a pound….. 2014 was almost 4.00 a pound lol. None of it makes any sense.

Re: Farm land prices? [Re: hardway] #16280966 07/25/21
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Originally Posted by hardway
Originally Posted by wabigoon
It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


Not unless you go to the Nevada desert 👍…. My grandfather had a 100 acre piece with a cheap rental and 30 year old almond trees that needed to be replanted …. my mom and her siblings sold it last year for 40,000 an acre…..guy who bought it already farms about 2000 acres…. It’s a different game, huge input costs….. almonds average about 3000lbs an acre and last year sold about 1.90 a pound….. 2014 was almost 4.00 a pound lol. None of it makes any sense.



Jeepers Richard, we need to be planting almond trees!


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16281119 07/25/21
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I started paying attention to land prices about 1962.

The high then was $400. I watched land climb to $3200, and never though it would go down, then along came 1985.

I'm totally in the dark.


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Re: Farm land prices? [Re: wabigoon] #16283417 07/25/21
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Around here there are old guys with deep pockets that bought land from300-1200 acre if they want it they just buy it
Spread the cost over all the other acres


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