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How high, and when will it peak out?


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Prices now dictate that it's not really farmland anymore.

You'd need more than one lifetime to ever see any blue sky from agriculture use.


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Originally Posted by rockinbbar
Prices now dictate that it's not really farmland anymore.

You'd need more than one lifetime to ever see any blue sky from agriculture use.


I may just be a dumb Aggie, but I can’t figure it out. And we’re getting yields well above average, and not paying for fertilizer. Still can’t pay a note and make living, let alone replace equipment.


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I recall back in the 1970s, my dad passed up buying several pieces of farmland. His math said that an average crop would not make the payments, let alone machinery, seed cost etc. Those that bought it, lost it to bankruptcy several years later. Dads math was correct.
Seems today that lots of farm land being purchased is done so by non farmers. And those buyers are paying cash for the land. Income from crops while nice is not necessary to retain ownership. Presume that these buyers are betting on long term investment and/or diversifying into some hard assets vs all stocks and bonds.
When will prices peak, I do not know, but would guess we are very close to peak.

Last edited by dale06; 07/22/21.

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While our commodity prices are up nicely, much better than the past few years, I don't think this is the entire reason for higher land prices. With a bout of massive inflation on the horizon I'm thinking folks with the cash are looking for places to put it that will keep some kind of value.

Land. "They're not making any more of it." Quoted from many an old fart in the neighborhood.


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It is a very complex question with so many variables to consider. Back in the 1980s I saw neighbors and some relatives buying farm land and equipment at 15 to 18% interest. The bankers were pushing them to get big. When corn prices dropped to 3.50/bushel and milk went to $13.00 per hundred weight the law of diminishing returns buried a lot of farmers. Fortunately my Dad did not participate in the get big scenario. When I got out of college my Dad and I formed a corporation and were able to secure low interest rate loans.

We targeted the small farm operations going out of business that because of the topography, the land was about 60/40. 60% timber/pasture, 40% tillable on average. To pay off the debt we logged the timber, sold some of the non-tillable to city folks wanting to recreate and hunt and enrolled a lot of the poorer ground in the CRP program. CRP is a good way to pay off a farm.

When the dairy herd was sold we had to look for different revenue. We continued logging and went with beef cows and crops also, land speculation. When Dad passed away I brought on a hired man to help with logging and farm chores. My farm equipment was ageing and some needed to be replaced, but I put a pencil to the situation and found I could hire custom work cheaper than purchasing good used equipment or new. So the land prices in my area with a combination of recreation and tillable track higher than just tillable land. I don't see that peaking yet.

Last edited by roundoak; 07/22/21.

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Originally Posted by muleshoe
While our commodity prices are up nicely, much better than the past few years, I don't think this is the entire reason for higher land prices. With a bout of massive inflation on the horizon I'm thinking folks with the cash are looking for places to put it that will keep some kind of value.

Land. "They're not making any more of it." Quoted from many an old fart in the neighborhood.



Solid way of looking at it.

Now, when buying agriculture land, if you can afford it, it'll be worth more in the future.

The investment now is more in the land, rather than what the land can produce in agriculture.


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Fifty years plus, I've been told it takes an eighty, along with a bought eighty to pay for it.


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50 k an acre for almond orchard ground in California’s San Joaquin Valley…..craziness.

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It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


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Originally Posted by wabigoon
It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


Not unless you go to the Nevada desert 👍…. My grandfather had a 100 acre piece with a cheap rental and 30 year old almond trees that needed to be replanted …. my mom and her siblings sold it last year for 40,000 an acre…..guy who bought it already farms about 2000 acres…. It’s a different game, huge input costs….. almonds average about 3000lbs an acre and last year sold about 1.90 a pound….. 2014 was almost 4.00 a pound lol. None of it makes any sense.

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Originally Posted by hardway
Originally Posted by wabigoon
It does not look like we will see $2500 land again.


Not unless you go to the Nevada desert 👍…. My grandfather had a 100 acre piece with a cheap rental and 30 year old almond trees that needed to be replanted …. my mom and her siblings sold it last year for 40,000 an acre…..guy who bought it already farms about 2000 acres…. It’s a different game, huge input costs….. almonds average about 3000lbs an acre and last year sold about 1.90 a pound….. 2014 was almost 4.00 a pound lol. None of it makes any sense.



Jeepers Richard, we need to be planting almond trees!


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I started paying attention to land prices about 1962.

The high then was $400. I watched land climb to $3200, and never though it would go down, then along came 1985.

I'm totally in the dark.


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Around here there are old guys with deep pockets that bought land from300-1200 acre if they want it they just buy it
Spread the cost over all the other acres

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Ground in parts of western South Dakota has gone up a lot, especially in or near the Black Hills. The farm across from my place just sold to a guy from Colorado for three times what the owner paid a few years ago. Some California people moving here and some Mennonites coming into the area too. The times, they are a changing.

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We have Cali people floodng into Missouri ,,,,,,,,,,,,Its cheap to them here ,,and they are driving up prices to boot


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I talked to a young man last week that said a piece of farm ground close to Orange City, IA recently sold for $18,700.00/A


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Originally Posted by kdog
We have Cali people floodng into Missouri ,,,,,,,,,,,,Its cheap to them here ,,and they are driving up prices to boot


That sounds like all the Mennonites and Amish that have moved here from Pennsylvania. They said they could sell an acre there and buy five here. Since they started coming here 25 or so years ago, land prices have skyrocketed.

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Recently a 100 ac tract of farmland sold here for $16,000 an acre Morgan county,Illinois just west of Springfield.


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77acres in Sioux County brought $21,200/acre today

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