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Originally Posted by Dirtfarmer
Could this be a ramp up to the 2022 elections? All hyped up, everyone in a panic, masks everywhere, mailing out and harvesting ballots....

Is this but a set up to steal yet another election...?

I'm more concerned about the optics and how it's gonna play out in the midterms than the virus itself.


BTW, I know Paul and think y'all are being too hard on him... He's just reporting what's out there.

DF


They know they're toast without another major something to steal 2022


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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
Originally Posted by Raeford
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard



What kind of real numbers are you showing for excess mortality in the USA in 2020?


It's my opinion that U.S. deaths will be much lower over the next 1,2,3 years than average.

It's also my opinion that if one has co-morbids they should probably keep their head low for the foreseeable future.

Otherwise I'ma keep on keeping on like I have for the past 18 months.

Just my .02 worth



I am with you on that. COVID took out a lot of people that were within a year or two of death.


And I think that phenomenon will continue for years to come. So if people are worried, keep the head down. For the vast majority it will be a non event.

Last edited by cfran; 08/03/21.
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Originally Posted by BLG
Every figure it seems is now in % of this or the other. I figure it's for effect mostly.

Delta can only be tested by genome testing. PCR cannot detect a specific variant. From what I have read, they are only genome testing 750 positive covid tests a week, and are "averaging" things out to show how big and bad the Delta variant is.

If what I read is true, there is a whole lot more guessing going on. Sorry, don't remember where I read it, so don't have a link. Just search for covid gemone testing for Delta variant. It wasn't easy to find.


Clyde


That's interesting. It makes sense, as genome testing is never quick or cheap. So, there would have to be extrapolation of data sampling to project overall percentages.

Now, you don't think politics would influence final, published results?

Nah....

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Originally Posted by Dirtfarmer
Could this be a ramp up to the 2022 elections? All hyped up, everyone in a panic, masks everywhere, mailing out and harvesting ballots....

Is this but a set up to steal yet another election...?

I'm more concerned about the optics and how it's gonna play out in the midterms than the virus itself.

BTW, I know Paul and think y'all are being too hard on him... He's just reporting what's out there.

DF



They will shamelessly exploit every possible political advantage that COVID will give them.

I knew what I was getting into when I posted the info. I thought it was interesting, I know that stand alone, some of it is of little value, and I knew that dolts like 'flave would rush in to take me to task even though I offered no comments or value judgement on the doctor's comments. I suppose I shouldn't take joy in watching them make asses of themselves imagining I said something that I didn't or believing something that I don't. Sometimes I can't help myself. Lord help me.

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Originally Posted by Raeford
They know they're toast without another major something to steal 2022


Why would they need COVID hype to steal another election?

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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard



I don't NEED to wear a bike helmet. As with all decisions, I gathered information, evaluated risk and made a cost/benefit risk/gain decision on the bike helmet. It provides minimal protection but it does so at very little financial or comfort cost. While a full faced NASCAR grade helmet would provide a substantial head injury mitigation benefit if I were involved in an auto crash, the inconvenience and discomfort aren't worth it to me.

Crazy talk, I know.


You didn't determine that based on data.

You wear that stupid fugkin' thing because everybody else wears them.

Crazy talk, I know.


Originally Posted by Geno67
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual.
Originally Posted by Judman
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Originally Posted by KSMITH
My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
Originally Posted by Dirtfarmer
Could this be a ramp up to the 2022 elections? All hyped up, everyone in a panic, masks everywhere, mailing out and harvesting ballots....

Is this but a set up to steal yet another election...?

I'm more concerned about the optics and how it's gonna play out in the midterms than the virus itself.

BTW, I know Paul and think y'all are being too hard on him... He's just reporting what's out there.

DF



They will shamelessly exploit every possible political advantage that COVID will give them.

I knew what I was getting into when I posted the info. I thought it was interesting, I know that stand alone, some of it is of little value, and I knew that dolts like 'flave would rush in to take me to task even though I offered no comments or value judgement on the doctor's comments. I suppose I shouldn't take joy in watching them make asses of themselves imagining I said something that I didn't or believing something that I don't. Sometimes I can't help myself. Lord help me.



You made the commit that it wasn't political which it always is when a politician calls a press conference



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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard



I am with you on that. COVID took out a lot of people that were within a year or two of death.


You mean like bronchitis, influenza, cold strains, and infection?

Stuff like that? That we've lived with our entire lives?


Originally Posted by Geno67
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual.
Originally Posted by Judman
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Originally Posted by KSMITH
My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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Originally Posted by jwp475


You made the commit that it wasn't political which it always is when a politician calls a press conference




I think Paul is the proudest idiot I've ever encountered.

LOL

He's still better than a lot of people though.


Originally Posted by Geno67
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual.
Originally Posted by Judman
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Originally Posted by KSMITH
My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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Originally Posted by deflave
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard



I don't NEED to wear a bike helmet. As with all decisions, I gathered information, evaluated risk and made a cost/benefit risk/gain decision on the bike helmet. It provides minimal protection but it does so at very little financial or comfort cost. While a full faced NASCAR grade helmet would provide a substantial head injury mitigation benefit if I were involved in an auto crash, the inconvenience and discomfort aren't worth it to me.

Crazy talk, I know.


You didn't determine that based on data.

You wear that stupid fugkin' thing because everybody else wears them.

Crazy talk, I know.


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.

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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.


Nobody wears a helmet like that to ride a bicycle unless they've been brainwashed.


Originally Posted by Geno67
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual.
Originally Posted by Judman
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Originally Posted by KSMITH
My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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Originally Posted by deflave
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.


Nobody wears a helmet like that to ride a bicycle unless they've been brainwashed.




Or the rest of their "outfits"
Guessing they don't wear them anywhere;they ain't pedaling.


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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
[quote=Raeford]Two point five months back ALL of Great Britain was gonna die ......During the peak, India had over 4000 "DeltaRona" deaths per day.
Help me with the arithmetic. If India has 1,000,000,000in population is that 1 out of every 250,000?


Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Jesus: "Take heed that no man deceive you."
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Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
[quote=Raeford]Two point five months back ALL of Great Britain was gonna die ......During the peak, India had over 4000 "DeltaRona" deaths per day.
Help me with the arithmetic. If India has 1,000,000,000in population is that 1 out of every 250,000?

Was when I went to school, not sure about now?


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Originally Posted by Stickfight
Originally Posted by Raeford
They know they're toast without another major something to steal 2022


Why would they need COVID hype to steal another election?

They could steal one without COVID, the virus just gives them cover, makes is easier to "justify" mail out ballots and ballot harvesting.

"Never waste a crisis" is the Dem battle cry... So, ya gotta whip a little crisis into a big crisis, bigger the better. Get folks so scared, they'll comply with your "rules"....

No fear, no population control...

Bottom line, it's about power and control...

To get there, you do what ya gotta do...

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead, worry about the fallout (laws you broke) later.

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Originally Posted by deflave
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.


Nobody wears a helmet like that to ride a bicycle unless they've been brainwashed.



Um, I wear one mountain biking.

Trees hurt.

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Originally Posted by deflave
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.


Nobody wears a helmet like that to ride a bicycle unless they've been brainwashed.





I haven't been brainwashed. I have read considerable material on how effective/ineffective they are. Frankly they don't do much good at all in preventing death or TBI. They can protect from less serious injury. They cost 50 bucks, aren't at all uncomfortable and they don't limit movement. They may save me a gash, stitches or lump on the head.

Cost/benefit Toots. It's what I do.

I don't "run" turreted NF FFP scopes. I don't own a Tikka. I don't shoot animals with match bullets. I don't own any Sitka gear. I reload with friggin Lee equipment. I could go on and on. I don't make decisions based on what others are doing or to fit in. If that's not painfully obvious to you, if you ever decide to get a job rather than being a stay-at-home dad, don't look at investigator jobs.

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Originally Posted by PaulBarnard
Originally Posted by deflave
Originally Posted by PaulBarnard


I didn't determine it based on data. Bicycle accident data is horrible at best. It was a very simple cost vs benefit equation for me. If you think I make decisions based upon what everyone else is doing, you have been doing an abysmally bad job of paying attention.


Nobody wears a helmet like that to ride a bicycle unless they've been brainwashed.





I haven't been brainwashed. I have read considerable material on how effective/ineffective they are. Frankly they don't do much good at all in preventing death or TBI. They can protect from less serious injury. They cost 50 bucks, aren't at all uncomfortable and they don't limit movement. They may save me a gash, stitches or lump on the head.

Cost/benefit Toots. It's what I do.

I don't "run" turreted NF FFP scopes. I don't own a Tikka. I don't shoot animals with match bullets. I don't own any Sitka gear. I reload with friggin Lee equipment. I could go on and on. I don't make decisions based on what others are doing or to fit in. If that's not painfully obvious to you, if you ever decide to get a job rather than being a stay-at-home dad, don't look at investigator jobs.






Those bike helmets look like crap. You would be shocked to know what flave actually does for a living.



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Maybe Louisiana just has crappy hospitals. They say in Florida when you don’t feel well you go to the airport.

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Paul Bernard of course it was political

I have been following Sweden throughout the pandemic, interested in seeing what result they get with their hands off approaches versus the lock down approach. Purely from medical curiosity and not from political interests.

A few things need to be understood before diving into the data. Viruses are opportunistic organisms. They hunt hosts. Early on, hosts are plentiful and the transmission is easy. After you get to a certain point, hosts are harder to find, and the numbers drop. Next, to judge the effectiveness of Sweden, GB, or any other country it will need to be judged AFTER the pandemic ends and all the data is in. Looking at daily or weekly snapshots are not accurate.

Historically, respiratory pandemics run 18 ± months from outbreak to peak transmission to the crash of number of new cases. There are still new cases after that for a time, but the logarithmic growth in new cases is done. Think of it like a pot of boiling water. A few bubbles transform into many until the pot boils over and it simmers down. Maybe another analogy is the atomic fission model with ping pong balls and mouse traps. While not exactly the same, it is a decent representation of how virus number grow, crest, and crash: 1:35 mark.
So let's look at Sweden. It is a country of about 10 million people. It has a major population concentration around the capital. For comparison, the State of Georgia has about 10 million people, with a major population concentration around the capital.
Let's look at the data now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sweden

Total cases - 1,101,000
Deaths - 14,640
Active cases 10.641

Georgia

Total Cases - 1,185,571
Deaths - 21,698
Active Cases - 74,752

Pretty similar results lockdown/masks vs. no lockdown and very casual mask usage and social distancing. I caution agaist making definitive conclusions because Georgia is not Sweden, but the obvious is the obvious. The virus did what viruses do with or without the harsh measures.

For those interested, Click through the site and look at the graphs between US and Sweden and spread of the disease, how many months until the numbers peaked, and the current number of deaths and new cases. Sweden did experience a double wave before the numbers crashed. The US had the typical rise and fall, however we are seeing a rise in new cases popping back up. The more important graph is daily deaths. So far, daily deaths have not spiked up with the number of new cases. Once again, I caution against drawing conclusions just yet, but so far, the Delta varient has not been responsible to a huge spike in deaths. US C-19 deaths peaked about Jan-Feb 2021 and have crashed. We shall see if the Delta changes that.

Interim Conclusions

Nobody has criticized Sweden for a number of months now. Turns out their strategy got results similar enough to everybody else. Why is that? Once the virus was out of Wuhan, it was going to hunt hosts. Unless you lived on an island that could be locked down, the virus was going to get transmitted no matter what. The original shutdown strategy was to designed as a temporary measure to prevent hospitals and health care from being overwhelmed. Then it was politicized "to slow the spread" ax was ready. In the end, the virus was going to spread no matter what.

The medical community has no way other than an effective vax or complete herd immunity to "stop" the spread. Note: nobody has ever said "stop" the spread, only "slow the spread". Politicians are the ones that are desparate for a solution that does not exist beyond the above. Swedes have more trust in their government because they believe their government wants what is best for all Swedes, and what gets them re-elected. Thus, the Swedish government was able to take this appraoch without an opposition Party blasting them at every turn. Note that the decision makers in Sweden got plenty of criticism during the peak months of transmission, but I'd say looking at things right now, their way was no worse than the lockdown/mask fiasco.
statestatestatestatestate



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