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Money guys, WTH is going on in China? #16526787 10/14/21
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Evergrande default, Chinese shipbuilding bankruptcies, Chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup facing default in the billions....what the hell is happening? Can the CCP bail these outfits out? Hang Seng seems stable. Will it cause a worldwide dip? Nobody saw the collapse of the Soviets coming...but they were not big players in global economy. As Maggie Thatcher loved to say...eventually you run out of other peoples money.


Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16526799 10/14/21
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A dip? LOL! Did the Titanic take a dip?

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16526801 10/14/21
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Greg, you think this could be the big one?


Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16526853 10/14/21
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Expecting a Communist to know how to run an economy is like expecting a Biden to join Mensa. Four more years of Trump will put the final nail in that coffin.


Jimmy Carter can now go to his grave and not be known as the worst president in US HISTORY.
Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16526863 10/14/21
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It's far more wide spread. Industrial prices jumped more than 10%. almost the entire country is under electricity curtailment, their ports and manufacturers are stacked to the rafters with goods they can't put on a boat (because the boats are all drifting outside the port of Long Beach wink ).

Several developers are unable to meet obligations.

It'll be interesting to see how the CCP will handle these defaults. If allowed to continue, it will lock up their economy like throwing a stick through the front wheel of a bicycle.


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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527010 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by flintlocke
Evergrande default, Chinese shipbuilding bankruptcies, Chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup facing default in the billions....what the hell is happening? Can the CCP bail these outfits out? Hang Seng seems stable. Will it cause a worldwide dip? Nobody saw the collapse of the Soviets coming...but they were not big players in global economy. As Maggie Thatcher loved to say...eventually you run out of other peoples money.


The possibility of contagion is the question lately on macro topics. There's also an energy production issue.

"Coal futures rose to above $240 per metric ton, getting closer to a record of $269.5 hit on October 5th as flooding put in question China's efforts to address energy shortages. Heavy rains have forced the closures of 60 coal mines in Shanxi province, the largest coal mining hub in China. Last week, the coal prices eased to $230 after Beijing ordered coal miners to boost production in an effort to curb an ongoing energy crisis, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said Gazprom will send more gas to European countries via Ukraine."


https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

Personally, I'm glad they banned bitcoin mining. Btw, the indicators of a large financial crisis have been ringing the bell for a while now.


There is no evidence of widespread journalism.

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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: Oldelkhunter] #16527049 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by Oldelkhunter
Expecting a Communist to know how to run an economy is like expecting a Biden to join Mensa. Four more years of Trump will put the final nail in that coffin.



Post of the year finalist right here.


"Fortune always favors the brave, and never helps a man who does not help himself." -P.T. Barnum

Who is John Galt?

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527056 10/14/21
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Really impossible to say. Their financial reporting standards are lax and opaque. Outsiders have a difficult time assessing the true situation. I think it makes military action against TW more likely as it would distract from their financial house of cards plus the weak US leadership that is hesitant to retaliate. I read somewhere the other day that the China has 65 Million unoccupied apartments. Think about real estate companies trying to float that boat anchor.

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: atomchaser] #16527077 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by atomchaser
Really impossible to say. Their financial reporting standards are lax and opaque. Outsiders have a difficult time assessing the true situation. I think it makes military action against TW more likely as it would distract from their financial house of cards plus the weak US leadership that is hesitant to retaliate. I read somewhere the other day that the China has 65 Million unoccupied apartments. Think about real estate companies trying to float that boat anchor.


Close friend traveled there regularly[pre-covid] and has mentioned the brand new ghost towns that he has seen.
Whole unoccupied cities.


Lets Go Brandon!
Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527093 10/14/21
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Xi Jinping has been warning party leaders that there will be real struggle and sacrifices to be made by Chinese elites. I do not believe Xi plans on rescuing the corrupt and overextended. Xi changed lending requirements a couple of years ago and that was the signal to deleverage and get your financial house in order. Xi squashed several huge IPO’s and rebuked or jailed quite a few Chinese billionaires. Most of these weak and over leveraged companies turned to off balance sheet funding schemes that are running out now. Xi apparently intends to let the market work and cull the weak from the economy. China’s economy will be much smaller on paper but this is a truly capitalistic plan that will lead to a much stronger economy in the long run. Xi is very anti big bank finanialization. I wish the west would rein in banking in the west but the banks have captured the government and we’re run for the benefit of a few Oligarchs.
Btw , I keep hearing that the Chinese are carrying 300%+ debt to GDP. That’s not sustainable.

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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527175 10/14/21
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An energy crisis is gripping the world, with potentially grave consequences

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How China and Europe are catching the brunt of it

October 9, 2021 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

Energy is so hard to come by right now that some provinces in China are rationing electricity, Europeans are paying sky-high prices for liquefied natural gas, power plants in India are on the verge of running out of coal, and the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States stood at $3.25 on Friday — up from $2.86 in April.

As the global economy recovers and global leaders prepare to gather for a landmark conference on climate change, the sudden energy crunch hitting the world is threatening already stressed supply chains, stirring geopolitical tensions and raising questions about whether the world is ready for the green energy revolution when it’s having trouble powering itself right now.

The economic recovery from the pandemic recession lies behind the crisis, coming after a year of retrenchment in coal, oil and gas extraction. Other factors include an unusually cold winter in Europe that drained reserves, a series of hurricanes that forced shutdowns of Gulf oil refineries, a turn for the worse in relations between China and Australia that led Beijing to stop importing coal from Down Under, and a protracted calm spell over the North Sea that has sharply curtailed the output of electricity-generating wind turbines.

“It radiates from one energy market to another,” said Daniel Yergin, author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.”

“Governments are scrambling to get subsidies in place to avoid a tremendous political backlash,” Yergin said. “There’s a pervasive anxiety about what may or may not happen this winter because of something we have no control over, which is the weather.”

As global leaders prepare to gather in Glasgow, Scotland, at the end of the month for a climate conference, advocates for renewable energy say the crisis shows the need to move further away from coal, gas and oil as prices for those commodities spike. Their critics contend just the opposite — that wind and solar have been tested and came up lacking. Analysts also worry that the shortages and high prices worldwide will severely crimp the economic recovery.

In the United States, which as an energy producer has been spared the worst consequences of the crisis even as gasoline prices have hit their highest mark since 2014, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm suggested Wednesday that the Biden administration might sell off part of the country’s Strategic Oil Reserve or ban exports of crude oil.

Energy analysts warned that such moves could be self-defeating, and on Thursday the department backpedaled.

“DOE continues to monitor global energy market supply and will work with our agency partners to determine if and when actions are needed,” a department statement said. “All tools in the Tool Box are always under consideration to protect the American people. Consistent with what the secretary said, there is no immediate plan to take those actions at this time.”

Track the latest developments in climate policy and politics with The Climate 202 newsletter

One leader who appears to see an opportunity in the crisis is Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose vast energy reserves the country often taps as leverage during times of energy stress. On Wednesday, Putin suggested that Russia’s European customers could solve their problem if they imported more Russian gas.

Analysts doubt it would make much of a difference right away, because at the moment Russia does not have a great deal to spare, but Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that even a small additional amount of exported gas could dampen what Moscow characterizes as a speculative frenzy in Europe.

Tension in Europe

This seemingly minor nudge comes against the background of sharp disagreements within the European Union over a response to the crisis. Leaders are looking to the E.U. as either scapegoat or savior, with some premiers asking the bloc for a standardized solution to the crisis and others blaming the price hikes on its sweeping policies to combat climate change and reduce emissions.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has friendly relations with Putin, said Wednesday that the E.U. was partly to fault for the increases and that the bloc “must change its policy.” That same day, E.U. climate chief Frans Timmermans said those who blame the bloc’s Green Deal are doing so for “ideological reasons” and that the transition away from fossil fuels will help end price crises, not exacerbate them.

An ancient people with a modern climate plan

“The wrong response to this would be to slow down the transition to renewable energy,” Timmermans said at a meeting of environmental ministers. “The right response is to keep the momentum and perhaps even look for ways to increase the momentum.”

Energy analysts argue that Europe moved too quickly away from fossil-fueled power, before ensuring that sufficient renewable sources could take up the slack in an emergency. Caught halfway in a transition that should take decades, they say, Europe is now scrambling to find coal and gas to burn in its remaining traditional plants.

As winter approaches, European fuel stocks are at a relative low point.

An important factor is the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany by way of the Baltic Sea but has yet to go into operation. Russian officials have urged Germany to speed up its regulatory approval, suggesting that it would provide a long-term solution to the country’s energy problems.

But politicians from Germany’s Greens, the environmentally conscious party currently in discussions to become part of a new coalition government following elections in late September, have accused Russia of manipulating the price of gas to create a sense of urgency around the pipeline.

Colonial shutdown shows how Americans pay the price of efficiency

If the Russian energy giant Gazprom does not adhere to regulatory requirements without “any ifs or buts” it is “a further indication that power politics is being pursued with gas,” Oliver Krischer, deputy head of the Greens parliamentary group, told German outlet RND on Wednesday.

And those regulatory hurdles might not be overcome before cold weather sets in, Klaus-Dieter Maubach, the chief executive of Uniper, Germany’s largest gas importer, told reporters in Düsseldorf last week. “It will probably not be able to help us out this winter.”

The new pipeline enables Russia to send gas to the West while bypassing Ukraine, and officials in Kyiv have long seen it as a weapon aimed at them. They argue that once the pipeline is in operation, Moscow will use gas as a cudgel to force European countries to do its bidding. But closer to home, they worry that with Ukraine no longer a transit country for Russian gas, Kyiv will lose one of its few levers of influence over Moscow — and that this poses the danger that the Kremlin could escalate the seven-year-old war in Ukraine’s east.

“The Kremlin is doing this on purpose,” Yuriy Vitrenko, head of Ukraine’s energy company Naftogaz, wrote on Facebook in regard to bypassing Ukraine. “It’s not even saber rattling — it’s the obvious use of gas as a weapon.”

Engineers raise alarms over the risk of major explosions at LNG plants

Exiting the pandemic

When the coronavirus pandemic first swept the world in early 2020, gas reserves were abundant and the price was at rock bottom. But production of both gas and oil was sharply curtailed as economies shattered, and reserves were eaten up by the unusually cold weather in Europe last winter.

The energy crisis first emerged in China, the world’s top manufacturer, as global demand for its products suddenly and unexpectedly shot upward this year. Coal stocks were low, and an unofficial Chinese ban on Australian lignite meant they couldn’t quickly be replenished. Power companies turned to the spot market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead, and its price soared.

In Asia, the spot price, measured in a million British thermal units, went from less than $5 in September 2020 to more than $56 this October.

As a result, curbs on power consumption have been implemented across two-thirds of China, disrupting factory production and daily life.

Some factories have shut down altogether. China’s power cuts will further disrupt international supply chains already stretched by the pandemic. Factories have had to reduce production at a time when they are usually ramping up for the December holiday season.

In Guangdong, China’s most populous province, authorities have banned the use of elevators in office buildings for the third floor and below, encouraged residents to use natural light as much as possible, and asked for air conditioners to be adjusted to higher temperatures. Beijing and Shanghai canceled annual light shows during the Golden Week holiday that spanned the first week of October.

The energy shortage has been exacerbated by continued severe weather. In northern Shanxi province, 27 coal mines were closed last week due to flooding. In China’s southern Yunnan province, hydropower has been crimped for much of the year by drought — much as it has in California.

China’s chief economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, warned last week that curbs on power usage will remain into next year.

A similar power crunch is unfolding in India, which saw a glut of electricity supply earlier this year when a devastating coronavirus surge left factories idle and streets empty. Since then, economic activity in the world’s second fastest growing major economy — and its thirst for electricity — bounced back faster than expected.

Now, India is staring at the reverse prospect: power shortages and potential blackouts hitting its rebounding manufacturing sector and households during the festive season beginning this month.

Power plants have failed to secure coal shipments and are reluctant to buy imports now because of the high price, according to Indian officials who have been urging utilities to purchase what they need. The country’s Central Electricity Authority warned Tuesday that nearly half of India’s coal power plants — 63 out of 135 — have two days or less of coal supplies, while stocks have been exhausted at 17 facilities.

Rahul Tongia, an expert on energy and sustainability at the Brookings Institution, said the coal shortage was likely to extend for five months and the Indian government would soon face difficult choices. Already, Indian aluminum producers have complained about power shortages bringing smelters to a halt.

“Are you going to shut down power for a bunch of people, a.k.a. voters? Or are you going to shut down industry?” Tongia said. “My money,” he said, is on a government decision that “they will not depress industry because it’s so critical in a post-covid recovery.”

In India, a country that has come under mounting international pressure and criticism for its refusal to commit to carbon emissions reduction targets, some officials and analysts have argued that the coal shortage has highlighted the enduring importance of a dirty but essential energy source. Even as India embarks on an ambitious project to deploy 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, its officials have talked up the necessity of accelerating, rather than slashing, coal production.

As coal supplies dwindled last month, India’s coal ministry chastised executives at Coal India, the state-owned company that is the world’s largest coal miner by output, for not meeting production targets and reiterated India’s target of mining 700 million tons of coal this year and 1 billion tons by 2024.

Karthik Ganesan, a researcher at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, an independent think tank that advises the government, urged Indian officials not to overreact to what he called a short-term shortage of coal due to weather and poor planning by power companies.

“This situation in itself is not an indicator of any long-term threats to coal availability and doesn’t need a policy response that augments mining or opens up new areas for mining,” he said. “This crisis shouldn’t result in us getting on a higher coal-use path.”

What would it take to put all our electric lines underground to prevent outages?

In Europe, where energy prices are hitting record levels, leaders are acutely aware of the potential for instability that comes with soaring costs.

Desperate to avoid a repeat of the “yellow vests” protest movement that was sparked in 2018 amid rising fuel prices and a proposed gas tax, the French government last month announced a “price shield” that will block further increases to the price of gas and electricity.

In Spain, the government has also approved emergency measures, seeking to help poor families pay their electricity bills and curbing what Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez described as “extraordinary profits” of energy companies.

The crisis “is hurting our citizens and in particular the most vulnerable households, weakening competitiveness and adding to inflationary pressure,” European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson told the European Parliament on Wednesday. “If left unchecked, it risks compromising Europe’s recovery as it takes hold.”

In the United Kingdom, shortages at the pump have led to long lines for gasoline, as well as high prices. Fuel companies have said they lack enough delivery drivers, because a significant number came from other European countries and went home after Britain left the E.U.


Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: Oldelkhunter] #16527270 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by Oldelkhunter
Expecting a Communist to know how to run an economy is like expecting a Biden to join Mensa. Four more years of Trump will put the final nail in that coffin.


You know what, in a way we could chalk this up to Biden/Obama for the recent, 2021 policies. Paying people not to work in the US, so no one works and the ports get jammed u, Chinas economy stagnated and collapses, brilliant policy! Probably more like the rule of unintended consequences, policies put forth by a bunch of mental midgets like Zero and his crew.

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527380 10/14/21
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I don't think people are paying attention, chits pretty fugged right now. But we we seem to be on a stimulus high.


There was also another builder smaller than Evergrande that defaulted on it's foreign bonds.


"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527383 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by flintlocke
Greg, you think this could be the big one?

Yeah, but I’m full blast in the stock market anyway. Where the hell else are you gonna put money right now?
I’m wrong a lot, but I can’t see what’s going on right now lasting.

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527405 10/14/21
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For one DJT pushed hard on China
But a key preexisting condition (maybe he knew since real estate is his thing) is that for more than 15years China has been building these new cities. Because of the restrictive nature of the Chinese system real estate was one of the few investment vehicles available to the masses...so they invested in these empty cities. There is also a long standing cultural aspect of the Chinese where many desire to own land/property what have you....
Additionally tge "One Child" Policy has created all sorts of knock on effect issues. The first to arise was a shortage of females with which the males could breed, which led to much slower population growth. Which led to these new cities remaining empty...

Those are just some of the root issues...


-OMotS



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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527412 10/14/21
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I'm thinking we will feel the effects of the Chinese real estate collapse in about February or March. They will allow it to limp along for a few months trying to hide their blunder but the writing is on the wall, the Chinese government has allowed the builders and developers to build buildings they cannot rent back out. The population is taking a hit from China's one child only program that they held in place for years and now no one wants more than one child. Kind of like Russia. The numbers just aren't there and if electricity continues to be an issue there will be 6 people in an apartment instead of 3.

China will take down the world just like what happened in 1982 and 2008. Pucker up boys, we are going for a ride.

kwg


For liberals and anarchists, power and control is opium, selling envy is the fastest and easiest way to get it. TRR American conservative. Iowa chapter. Stolen elections have consequences.
Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: gregintenn] #16527475 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by flintlocke
Greg, you think this could be the big one?

Yeah, but I’m full blast in the stock market anyway. Where the hell else are you gonna put money right now?
I’m wrong a lot, but I can’t see what’s going on right now lasting.



I'm still stuck in cash loosing the inflation game, but I keep thinking when it pops it's going to be quick and brutal. I'm too close to retirement to risk it. I'll wait it out a bit longer and buy some stuff when it makes more sense.


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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: flintlocke] #16527598 10/14/21
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Ok. Let’s see. CCP owns the companies, the dirt, the banks, the marketing, the housing buyers salaries, and the social media. All this adds up to foreign investors being hosed and the CCP bailing themselves out. They have been running shadow accounts and banking for decades. Foreign investors are going to learn a painful lesson in the dishonesty of communist China.

GreggH

Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: GreggH] #16527604 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by GreggH
Ok. Let’s see. CCP owns the companies, the dirt, the banks, the marketing, the housing buyers salaries, and the social media. All this adds up to foreign investors being hosed and the CCP bailing themselves out. They have been running shadow accounts and banking for decades. Foreign investors are going to learn a painful lesson in the dishonesty of communist China.

GreggH


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Re: Money guys, WTH is going on in China? [Re: Stormin_Norman] #16527622 10/14/21
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Originally Posted by Stormin_Norman
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by flintlocke
Greg, you think this could be the big one?

Yeah, but I’m full blast in the stock market anyway. Where the hell else are you gonna put money right now?
I’m wrong a lot, but I can’t see what’s going on right now lasting.



I'm still stuck in cash loosing the inflation game, but I keep thinking when it pops it's going to be quick and brutal. I'm too close to retirement to risk it. I'll wait it out a bit longer and buy some stuff when it makes more sense.



Same boat here. When it comes time to abandon ship there are no lifeboats and your only choice is port or starboard side, it seems.


Originally Posted by gonehuntin
Give a communist a helicopter ride, he flies for an afternoon. Throw a communist out of a helicopter and he flies for the rest of his life.....



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