Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire The backlog on vehicles is insane

Back in the fall... Laura and I decided to update some vehicles with new. Most of our current stuff is VERY VERY long in the tooth. VERY VERY beat to fugg.

"New" is very unusual for me... I have owned/flipped 80++ vehicles in my life, but only ever bought ONE "New" (wife's insistence in 2009).

In November, we picked up a Sienna hybrid and put down $1k deposits on 3-4 more (exiting a deposit is instant if you decline a vehicle).

We picked up one of those yesterday (2022 Prius) and chatted with the sales/financing folks (they happen to really like us... i.e. we are buying more than one car... I am taking them a bushel of oysters... kinda thing).

Anyway... the Sienna... has gone up in value probably $4k-$5k (open market sale... not trade in). The backlog on getting a Sienna is over 100 names on a clipboard... and about 1.5 years out.

The backlog on hybrid Rav4s is 6-8 months. Probably 8+ in reality.

Similar or worse on hybrid Highlanders.

4-5 months on Hybrid Camry's, Corollas and Prius.

Not a single new car/truck on the lot "For Sale"...

Not a single allocation (car being built 2-3 months out) is available.

EVERYTHING is "make a deposit and get on the clipboard".

The Yen situation has kept prices low FOR NOW (i.e. no inflation YET).

The next drama is freight.

One of our deposits was for a Camry hybrid (built in Kentucky).

It was actually built before the Prius (Japan built) we picked up yesterday.

The Prius arrived from Japan a week ago... the Camry is still stuck in "Freight Status"... +/- 4 weeks now.

Crazy weird stuff.

Never in my life would I have considered a "New Car/Truck" as a winning or wise financial play... NEVER.

Seems like everything... every rule... flips on it's ear with Joey at the helm.

FYI... CRAZY low financing... and even a rebate on the Prius. WTF?

Nothing makes sense anymore.

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Now to sell some fubar beaters.

WTS... 2005 Honda CR-V, weak transmission, 1/4 million miles, dash has more lights on than a pinball machine... 24HC special $10k (I paid $2,700)

WTS... 2007 Chrysler T&C, weak transmission, burns oil, bad radiator, 1/4 million miles, dash has more lights on than a pinball machine... 24HC special $10k (I paid $5,000)

WTS... 2010 Prius, 210k miles, couple dash lights... 24HC special $22,500k (I paid $22,500)

*Finance guy and 4-5 others bought the new Tundra... some are selling now (profit and/or because of computer drama)... the new Toyotas have LOTS of computers and sensors (most are outsourced and not Toyota built). The Tundras are built in Texas (NOT Japan)... there was some heavy discussion of lower QC in US and Canadian factories vs. vehicles built and shipped from Japan.

** Warranty. We bought the warranty (another first). Finance guy gave it to me at cost ($900 for 8 years B2B)... marked down from $3,600... mostly because he likes us... and I promised to bring another bushel of oysters.

Crazy weird times...

FYI... this a highly reputable dealer (5 Star kinda place).

I have had a Camry "on order" for 3 months, I bought one coming out of the rental fleet yesterday. Giving my 2014 Altima to the grand daughter to replace the '07 Camry (350K) she is is currently driving as she is headed cross state to Chattanooga next month to start school and volleyball. Hell when you can't buy a new car...

I would imagine that more than a couple of the names on various lists across the country - if you called them today and said "your car is here" - they'd decline with the state of things.

Those lists might have 100 names on it but only 60 actual buyers.

I kinda concurred with that... so I asked exactly that type question.

"IF we decline this new $27k Prius right now (4:30 PM) what would happen?"

"We would have it sold before closing today... The demand is that high Leonard."

*Trust a car salesman? Oh hell no...

These guys... YES

Talked to a guy that works at the Louisville Ford plant recently. He said they have an order backlog of over 300,000 Super Duty’s.

I traded a in a worn Toyota Tundra for a new F-150 last year. Their waiting list for a used Tundra had 11 names on it and that Tundra never was put out on their Lot and was never even listed in the dealership’s pre-owned inventory.

I’m glad I bought the new F-150 when I did.

As Cash has pointed out, it’s crazy out there.

DAMN...

300,000...

If they can make 10 a day that is 30,000 days

If they make 100 a day that is 3,000 days

If they make 1,000 a day that is 300 days

Laughing here!

Only you could break it down to meaningful terms. Well done.

I had told my guy the time frame I needed the second vehicle. He called yesterday and told me he had this one available and wanted to know if I was interested. I asked him about the deposit and the "Order" he said no problem if it fell off the truck tomorrow it would be gone in 8 hours. They just rolled my deposit to the purchase of the used car.

The '07, they gave me a list of 4 people looking for an around town driver, probably have it sold before the weekend.

Given Ford's sales for 2021 - their total capacity for vehicles is something like 10,600 a day. I know that's not specific to the F250/350 line but still. They make quite a few.

I'm curious. Real cars are very hard to get but how about EV's? Has the government managed to keep them available or are they in short supply, too?

The whole automotive supply chain is hosed. Parts availability, or a lack thereof, is impacting my business mote than I thought it would, and vendors are closing down like I have not seen before. Where there were about 7 good machine shops in our area 5 years ago, there is now 1, and I have engine machinework waiting to go to him. I'm on his schedule for the second week of August.

Tried to order a 2022 Renegade in dark green.
Wouldnt be avail til Aug, and that color not in our market.
No rebates either.

Built another in diff color, salesguy says they got a fully loaded 21 in that color. Bought it. Had 2 red ones.....and nothing since. All sold by the weekend....2 months ago

Some used ones proly from corporate fleet ive seen pop up at dealerships.

My guess is most new stuff is built to order.
Too much chit on mine.

May order a new one next yr. Wish mine had a hitch instead of sunroof.

A 3 yr old vehicle w half warranty gone , was within 5 k of a new one, of higher trim package.

Crazy.

Tiny bit of Google Fu on the SuperDuty.

https://fordauthority.com/2022/03/2...on-once-again-impacted-by-chip-shortage/

Tesla is increasing sales at 50% a year, they’re making cars at a pace of about a million a year (if Shanghai doesn’t get shut down again).

Their high end models are about 4-5 months out, the “low end”, still 50K cars, are a year out and Tesla is probably going to quit taking orders on those for a while.

BMW, VW, etc, much the same story, but small volume (Tesla is still about 80% of the EV market). The Ford Lightning is sold out for the next three years.

I have a Ford pickup on order (not a Lightning), and it’s going to be end of summer, probably.

I ordered a new F350 on 02/10/22. My build is listed as “unscheduled, clean”. I asked my sales guy what it meant and he said the parts are all there but not the labor or scheduled slot to put it together. He also said that the Superduty transmission plant has 7,000 transmissions ready to go…usually have less than 500 on hand. He stated there are tractor trailers full of engines sitting at the truck plant in Louisville. When I put in the order I was told 6-8 months.
I ordered a Kia Telluride last fall. They told me 4-5 months. It took 4. They wanted me to pass on the deal when it came in because they said there are other’s that would pay over MSRP that day. I bought it. Salesman delivered it to the house as part of the deal. I asked him what I can get out of it right then. He said if you list it today, you’re a fool for taking any less than $12k more than you are paying. He said the demand is that high.

I call BS on a "Chip Shortage".

Think about it...

Really really? The USA cannot solve a chip problem on a trillion dollar industry in THREE FUGGING YEARS?

Horse chit...

Every time I get near the Toyota dealership they try to buy my 2017 Tundra TRD PRO. They had no new vehicles on the premises when I was there last week. On the other hand, they seem to be shipping a couple of RORO’s full of SC made Volvos, BMW’s and Mercedes out of the port of Charleston each week.

Parts availability is getting worse by the day. Got a guy that does racks and dock work for me. Says you could shoot a gun through the main NAPA warehouse in town, and not hit anything. Says he has never been to a warehouse that looked like it was just opening up. Very few parts on the shelves.

So people looking to fix their car or get it fixed, are finding parts unobtainium. Part of the reason in my opinion the used car market keeps getting worse.

For my company, a simple gearbox takes months to get here. No inventory, and they have to "make" or put something together.


Clyde