Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Housing price drop prediction

I'm always looking in select markets. A little cool off noted, but nothing making me want to unseat some capital.

Reasons NOT to expect home prices to "crash" :

1. Historically, and in especially in light of current inflation 6% is NOT a high interest rate for a mortgage.

2. Some of the hottest real estate appreciation (mid-late 1980's, early 2000's) occurred when mortgage rates were much higher than present.

3. huge real estate appreciation has happened at the same time as stock market declined, e.g. after the Dot-Com bubble burst.

4. Residential rents are high and continue to climb.

5. Cost of new residential construction is high relative to resale prices.

6. High population growth and low amount of construction since "Sub. Prime Crisis"

7. Exodus from expensive urban areas, as already mentioned.

Don’t tell Old Two Fist Houston

Good commentary...

I would add lack of labor at any practical level...

i.e. the squeeze is on with any functional worker... competition to flip burgers at $30/hour vs. $25/hour for a roofer.

And that is amongst the smaller and smaller group of people willing to work anyway... vs. jackoff on their cell phones all day.

The socialism promise of "Equality For All" is an undercurrent in all matters...

Of course it is a lie... but that matters not.

There simply are too many ticks living on the hound-dog... for the hound-dog to make it.

Thanks, Cash.

I agree with your earlier assessment that the "moving parts" are different this time, for many reasons.
Relating to the worker psychology / cell phone jackoff issue, I think in the near future a lot of self-relocated remote workers will have their positions eliminated or off-shored.

Houses/real estate in some areas will decline in price. Others won't. Depends on as always location. Less desirable areas will decline first. Demands in my area (Huntsville AL) is extremely strong. Not slowing down here at all.

We have not purchased an investment property to flip on almost to years due to current work load and crazy prices. Investor friends were over-paying because money was so cheap and rents are crazy. I do not see a crash like in 07-08 coming but a moderation in prices without the bidding wars we have here. The wife and I are looking for another house for ourselves and would like to rent our current house out now that it's paid for but I cannot find something to build equity in at a reasonable price. I do believe some of the major markets will be hit much harder as people move away.

I’m not sure about that. Carter screwed up so bad interest rates went nuts, I had one at 17% as everyone said it was the new norm. At the same time there were lines to get gas which nearly doubled in price, utilities went way up, and so did most everything else including food etc.
The cost of living went up very fast.

Osky

how much is a new well?....of course depending on depth...what is your estimate......bob

I’m selling out west and buying over east.

Some folks are pricing aggressively and the homes are moving.

Others priced homes like rates are still dick nothing and they are dropping prices or not selling.

Interest rates aren’t “high” yet. They just aren’t inflation fanning retarded anymore.

Ouch. Home equity loan maybe?

interest rates are high....its a matter of perspective....3 to 7 is high not everyone had a 10 or 15% mortgage....alot weren't even born yet.


I dont think 6% is bad ....but I have seen the flip side of things....housing will and already is slowing down yes some markets will be better than others...

building prices will come down...they have to when material isnt selling the price will drop...how much it comes down is the question.

labor will come down....if we get in a longer recession than anticipated.....no work no toys no house.....some areas it will be a blip others not so much....bob

Bought a house & property 10 or so weeks ago. Sold my house & property 5-6 weeks ago.

Houses are not selling as quickly as they have in the past 2 or so years.

Houses around 325K > 380K went very fast if at all desireable.

The buyers in that market are a little more cautious for a couple reasons:

1) loans a little higher

2) More houses on the sell for longer time- no big rush

3) the prices are dropping, not at all uusual to see a 400K home now reduced by 50k

4) everything slowing down

5) this situation feeds on itself

This is your average buyer, people that can afford 500K +homes ....little different situation

I have been trying to get a well on my place in WV for 2 years... or at least get someone to come out and look/give me an estimate.

Started with 5 points of contacts... then 3...

Now there are only 2 still doing that work.

The "Next Generation" is not taking up these jobs/trades.

At least around me.

---------------------------

Here in Virginia... my new neighbor put in a septic system (just last week). I am friends with the GC.

$30k. 5-6 month delay.

3/2 home. Nothing fancy.

I did not ask about the cost of the well.

Can you spell NY'er?

They sell their place in NY for $750k-1M. $500-750k in FL? No big deal.

1000+ NY'ers a day coming across FL's GA/FL state line. They're not stopping in GA like they were. GA going too blue.

Real estate markets are by NEIGHBORHOOD in FL now.

I concur...

BUT

The "blip" might be way longer... than a normal blip...

And the "other areas" may be 3x-5x longer than "normal".

i.e. we all may be speaking Spanish by then.

I heard a small rumor once that the rich California folks may someday also think of moving out.

Places like Montana, Idaho, Jackson Hole.

But I am sure it ain't true.

Lol.

Probably not.

,(More from CA coming here now in larger numbers, too.)

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