Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Housing price drop prediction

This article suggests that housing prices will continue to drop through next summer or so.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...send-home-prices-tumbling-economist-says

My wife and I plan to move to Arkansas in early October and will be renting a mobile home. Not sure of the rent yet but suspect it will be under $1000/month. We looked at 11 homes while we were there recently and only found 1 that we really liked but it had just been listed the day before we saw it and was priced at $425,000. It is further away from where I will be working than I would ideally like to commute but was a stunning house on acreage. The owner is a realtor and presumably has some sense of the current market and priced it accordingly. We will see if he drops the price anytime soon or maybe it will sell today?

Anyway maybe we should just stay in the mobile home for several months and see if house prices do drop. Of course interest rates could continue to climb but maybe the prices will drop enough such that we could just buy a house outright without needing a mortgage. That would be sweet but I suspect to get what we are looking for we will still need a mortgage to some extent.

Rate hikes finally taking hold?

Hold off buying until the TV tells people we're in a recession.

Prices are likely to drop 'some'.

The issue will be the cost of new builds over the past 1-2 years IMHO

Many 'new home' owners will be upside down if prices drop drastically.

Nobody wants a high interest home loan now.

That will hurt the real estate market across the board.

FJB!

Lol.

I would guess within three years we will be seeing a bunch of "short sales" and repos hitting the market.

The prices will definitely drop overall. Any individual market might hold onto prices but there’s going to be damned few. Interest rates are going to kill the housing market. You shouldn’t see a repeat of the ‘08 crash because there isn’t that many adjustable rate mortgages or balloon mortgages. Many people will be upside down and stuck. Some will lose their homes due to income loss but it shouldn’t be overwhelming. I would certainly wait to buy until prices fall and the Fed reverses course and starts lowering interest rates. Timed right you can catch the bottom of the market and lower interest rates.

Yep, I bet you’re right. Lots of folks are going to be under water. Imagine having to relocate and your house is worth $50,000.00 less than you paid for it.

But your home loan is at 3.2% and if you walk away to buy a similar home slightly cheaper your new home loan intrest rate would be much, much higher.

Making your upside down low interest rate home appearing to be the prize that it is.

6% is high interest? That was a really great rate not too long ago, I've heard horror stories of them 16-20% in the past.
But I get ya, definitely high compared to what we've seen the past couple years.

You can not only thank FJB but J Powell as well for this mess.

Interest rates should have been 'bumped' upward starting a year ago[if not 7-8 years ago] to head this off.
Powell wanted to be renamed to the position so badly that he wouldn't even admit that the trend wasn't transitory.

So we get full on recession & high interest so one person could keep his position.

Houses may be harder to sell in the future because of interest rates, but the price to build a new home will keep prices up. With that said as mentioned above, in a couple of years the repo department at Wells Fargo could get busy.

I don't care. One house is paid for and the mortgage on the other is locked in at 2.625. The rent for the paid for house pays the mortgage and utilities on the house I live in.

Boomer privilege.

I flipped the other rental house after a year and made $25K on it. Used the money to buy my wife a new RDX.

Not rich by no means. But if the crazies don't get us nuked, I ought to be able to live fairly relaxed until the reaper knocks on the door.

Until the renter stops paying...

No section 8,....prospective renters have to qualify.

They don't pay, they don't stay.

My rental property is in one of the historic districts of town. Houses there rarely come up for rent. When they do it's just a matter of choosing the best applicant.

So far I've had an attorney and a physician rent the place.

Thought I had it made, with all appropriate due diligence done as well. It sometimes goes sideways.
Done with rentals. Never again. Not even commercial.
Living in a no mortgage paid for home, and always will.
And capital gains (especially after a tax hit) never go into depreciating assets. Or assets requiring intense babysitting.

Do feel for the younger generation, trying to make a start.
But I had no free fuel put into my tank at the beginning of the race either.

Looking forward to any increases in interest rates paid to savers. Haha.
My attempt at humor on a Friday.

I don't worry about it. I'm not rich, as mentioned. But I'm far enough ahead that it would take an extreme set of circumstances to crash me. It worst comes to worst, I could sell the rental property, pay off this place, and have enough left over to pay taxes and utilities on it for the rest of my life.

Me either, Brother Bristoe.
Hoping all works according to plans for you, as it is always great to have a plan.
Life does bring some crazy turns in the road.
I had to make hard decisions a few years ago and might have lost some friendships over it.
But doing what is right for my team is best. I sincerely wish the same for you as well.

Crazy days we live in. Only wish those of us who lived within our means and practiced smart saving and spending practices could see better reward for our efforts and sacrifices. Free money has nearly killed savings and investments. Cash? No interest paid. Bonds? Little interest paid and bigger risks than ever before. Stocks? Daily losses. Real estate? Artificially inflated and walk-away attitudes prevail.

I'd love to be more optimistic....