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Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 3,999
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 3,999 |
We be loving us some hurricane...
Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,606
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,606 |
On the bright side much of the area is newer construction. It’s all built to post Andrew codes. Anyplace that doesn’t actually flood should hold up well. The flood part is a mofo ! There will be a lot of flooding.
‘TO LEARN WHO RULES OVER YOU, SIMPLY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO CRITICIZE’
Conspiracy theorists are the ones who see it all coming…
You are the carbon they want to eliminate !
I’m Uber Deplorable Ultra MAGA !
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Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 8,728
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 8,728 |
When it hits land (reports say), it will slow way down and be a huge rain maker.
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928 |
Ian's pressure falls to 952mb and sustained winds are 120 mph as strengthening continues.
A person who's happy will make others happy. Anne Frank
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,546
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,546 |
It is very large and intense. Another visible image: Yes, it's a huge system.
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 23,506
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 23,506 |
God, please save Deflave.
-Wabigoon
Curiosity Killed the Cat & The Prairie Dog “Molon Labe”
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928 |
Debris ball in Miami-Dade county in the glades. Probably the first tornado.
A person who's happy will make others happy. Anne Frank
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,546
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,546 |
We be loving us some hurricane... Charles Ramsey?
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,840
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,840 |
Looks like the Keys are already getting hammered.......do we have any regulars there?
Good luck guys....
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,868
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,868 |
Wife has a very close cousin living in port Charlotte. Her husband is up here in Michigan taking care of business. She's gonna ride it out. She's definitely gonna have an interesting couple of days.
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 10,942
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 10,942 |
Looks like my 76 year old Mother and Step Father's home in Port Charlotte is going to get hit (Again). Luckily they got all the hurricane shutters locked in and left yesterday. I hope they have something to return to.
They say everything happens for a reason. For me that reason is usually because I've made some bad decisions that I need to pay for.
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 |
It is very large and intense. Another visible image: Yes, it's a huge system. No, it's not a large system. But that doesn't matter. It's gonna be plenty "huge" for the people who get that eastern eyewall. Hopefully those poor souls won't be overwhelmed by a populated area that loses electricity and Whole Foods for a few days.
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928 |
A person who's happy will make others happy. Anne Frank
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928 |
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone.
Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.
The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all preparations to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
A person who's happy will make others happy. Anne Frank
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Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 30,760
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 30,760 |
Jeez
all we want is a little bit of the storm
T R U M P W O N !
U L T R A M A G A !
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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,928 |
It is very large and intense. Another visible image: Yes, it's a huge system. No, it's not a large system. But that doesn't matter. It's gonna be plenty "huge" for the people who get that eastern eyewall. Hopefully those poor souls won't be overwhelmed by a populated area that loses electricity and Whole Foods for a few days. Hurricane Ian stretches from Cuba to Washington DC and is twice as wide as Florida. It is a truly massive storm.
A person who's happy will make others happy. Anne Frank
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,686
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,686 |
God, please save Deflave.
-Wabigoon Lord above, if it’s in your power, send us down some kill flave showers. -Rio7
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 |
Of course it is. It is a hurricane.
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 |
Of course it is. It is a hurricane. What a jerk-off.
Trump being classless,tasteless and clueless as usual. Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit. My young wife decided to play the field and had moved several dudes into my house
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Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 5,165
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 5,165 |
I don't miss that hurricane BS at all. After hurricane Francis and then 2 weeks later Jeane in 04 and then Wilma in 05. My wife finally had enough of living on the water in Florida and moved to the woods.
Life is good live it while you can.
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