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Geno67 Offline OP
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Tornado warnings will be far too numerous to list out individually and there's no way I can devote that much time to it.

This site allows you to see any ongoing tornado warned areas:

https://www.tornadohq.com/

Sarasota through Port Charlotte are now in the crosshairs.


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The eyewall is usually inundated with tornados...to numerous and obscured to count. Let's just hope that twenty mile stretch hits nowhere. But the fact is, it will hit someone, even if they live "nowhere". And the media will not GAF if it's not Democrats.

But they will survive. The sound of chainsaws and generators will be around for a long time there. And there will be no help, except from their friends, family and a few benevolent organizations.

Meanwhile, millions, of tax dollars will be given to the usual suspects in the usual places.

Do I sound jaded?

I've lived it over, and over


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Originally Posted by Geno67
Tornado warnings will be far too numerous to list out individually and there's no way I can devote that much time to it.

This site allows you to see any ongoing tornado warned areas:

https://www.tornadohq.com/

Sarasota through Port Charlotte are now in the crosshairs.



Geno, we've had tornado warnings for the last couple hours +/-. My power has been out for about an hour and a half.


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Latest satellite and radar looks like it’s making a jog to the right earlier than forecasted. Maybe it’s just a normal wobble these hurricanes exhibit, or the trough to the west is stronger than forecasted, but if I were in S Florida I’d be watching closely.

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Originally Posted by ltppowell
I've lived it over, and over

Yeah.

You’ve told us a few thousand times.


Originally Posted by Geno67
Trump being classless, tasteless and clueless as usual.
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It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.


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Originally Posted by Jerry_Lundegaard
Latest satellite and radar looks like it’s making a jog to the right earlier than forecasted. Maybe it’s just a normal wobble these hurricanes exhibit, or the trough to the west is stronger than forecasted, but if I were in S Florida I’d be watching closely.
I see the same thing but I think it’s a temporary wobble from the eye wall coming apart and replacing itself.


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Originally Posted by Daveinjax
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.


HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.

Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.


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325
URNT15 KNHC 280129
AF302 2409A IAN HDOB 11 20220928
012030 2618N 08508W 4101 07386 0378 -110 -260 322015 016 032 000 00
012100 2616N 08506W 4099 07390 0378 -109 -255 317016 016 032 000 00
012130 2614N 08504W 4101 07388 0378 -110 -251 313016 018 032 000 00
012200 2612N 08502W 4112 07376 0383 -106 -248 314018 019 032 000 00
012230 2610N 08500W 4266 07095 0367 -088 -246 335018 019 032 000 00
012300 2608N 08458W 4403 06850 0346 -072 -237 355019 019 032 000 00
012330 2606N 08456W 4538 06614 0327 -067 -228 011022 022 033 000 00
012400 2604N 08454W 4683 06366 0308 -054 -226 018025 027 034 000 00
012430 2602N 08453W 4833 06114 0288 -043 -217 013028 029 032 000 00
012500 2601N 08450W 4990 05863 0271 -038 -206 034027 030 035 001 03
012530 2601N 08448W 5158 05604 0254 -040 -196 029024 025 037 000 00
012600 2601N 08445W 5326 05349 0237 -024 -177 024025 025 036 000 00
012630 2601N 08443W 5498 05094 0221 -004 -163 021023 025 036 001 00
012700 2601N 08440W 5636 04894 0039 +002 -147 024021 023 035 000 03
012730 2601N 08438W 5786 04685 0032 +021 -131 040025 027 037 000 00
012800 2601N 08436W 5957 04444 0037 +031 -119 060030 031 041 000 00
012830 2601N 08433W 6137 04200 0057 +034 -106 060033 035 041 000 00
012900 2601N 08431W 6327 03954 0054 +050 -098 058035 035 040 000 00
012930 2601N 08429W 6569 03643 0054 +070 -083 053036 037 037 001 00
013000 2601N 08427W 6798 03361 0054 +087 -071 051037 038 037 001 00

The entire country of Cuba is without power. Complete grid failure. Hurricane Ian has collapsed Cuba's power grid, knocking out power to the island's 11 million people. https://t.co/CdMKTmfwvL
-- The Associated Press (@AP) September 28, 2022

South FL is inundated with tornadoes. It's just one after another. Damn it.

Radar indicating >130 mph winds at eye. HH aircraft is in the storm, still waiting for data broadcast. The last broadcast found 126+ at the aircraft altitude. This would probably mean 115 or so at the surface.


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Florida is a great place…..To vacation.



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Originally Posted by Geno67
Originally Posted by Daveinjax
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.


HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.

Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.
I just looked at the infrared satellite imagery and it looks like it has really slowed down and drifted east more. Slower it goes over that hot water the stronger it’s going to be. It’s a big hot monster right now and there’s nothing to weaken it currently. The eye has basically disappeared so it should start to build its new eye wall and get stronger quickly. I wonder how full Okeechobee is ?


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It is getting windy here in Naples.


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Geno67 Offline OP
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Fort Lauderdale - radar estimates 7 inches of rain and canals are currently 3-4 feet above normal.

Heat index in Key West is 100.


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Geno67 Offline OP
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Ian’s eyewall replacement is complete & there’s a new burst of inner core lightning in the upshear (SW) quadrant of the eyewall, which may signal of an ongoing period of re-intensification. The absence of a hole on the imagery is just high level cloud cover. Regardless, hurricane-force winds should move onshore SW FL within several hours.

In flight data shows a rise of a few millibars in pressure. Still waiting for dropsonde data to confirm.


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Originally Posted by Daveinjax
Originally Posted by Geno67
Originally Posted by Daveinjax
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.


HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.

Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.
I just looked at the infrared satellite imagery and it looks like it has really slowed down and drifted east more. Slower it goes over that hot water the stronger it’s going to be. It’s a big hot monster right now and there’s nothing to weaken it currently. The eye has basically disappeared so it should start to build its new eye wall and get stronger quickly. I wonder how full Okeechobee is ?

If you look at the water vapor loops, it appears the strong trough to the west is beginning to shear the outflow in the SW quadrant. Maybe this tough will win out an weaken Ian? Time will tell.

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Geno67 Offline OP
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Too big now for that shear to have any effect. Also offset by pulling in high CAPE air from the SE quadrant. 4500+


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Originally Posted by Beaver10
God, please save Deflave.

n

This^^^.

Uh, why exactly?

Oh yeah, he's going to man up, hang in there and send us videos as it blows.


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