24hourcampfire.com
24hourcampfire.com
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Hop To
Page 2 of 4 1 2 3 4
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,840
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,840
If you are taking "inflated proceeds" from the sale of a home recently and paying an inflated amount, it's actually kind of a wash. Waiting is a double edged sword. The housing market has slowed. A lot of sellers are still waiting on inflated prices in the hopes to cash in like they saw others do. This will slow the price decreases that should occur. Add to that the increasing interest rates and, once again you have an "it's a wash" situation. Who knows how high interest rates will go; but, they will go higher. Nobody can predict when and where housing prices will decrease. Without knowing those two things, you and we are just guessing. Don't make your decision based on what rates were. Right now you have to decide "do I take today's lower rate (compared to future increases) and the "maybe" higher price OR do I wait for lower prices and tomorrows higher rate?". It's kind of a wash.

With the last couple of year's price increases people went through the thought process of cashing in on the inflated home prices only to realize they were paying inflated prices for their replacement home. Good luck with whatever you decide. The one thing I will add is that, in my opinion, if one got a windfall from the sale of a home in the past couple of years, use that windfall as a downpayment for your next house and don't spend it. Why? Because spending it to buy a boat or truck or whatever is what will potentially put you in trouble with your new home purchase. Putting those funds into your new home, assuming the market drops down to a sane level where it would otherwise have been, even if below your purchase price, will result in no actual loss to you. In essence, you will have sold at an inflated level and bought at an inflated level and the net affect will be as though this market roller coaster did not exist or occur for you.


_________________________________________________________________________
“Montana seems to me to be what a small boy would think Texas is like from hearing Texans.”
John Steinbeck


ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
BP-B2

Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,588
D
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
D
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,588
I’d wait. The home market has and will continue to stagnate as interest rates go up. The real pain of the recession hasn’t hit yet. There will be bargains to be had by mid ‘23 and it’s very likely that 80% will be 100% buy mid ‘23.
To give an example of what is coming I’m in the trucking business as an owner operator. I pull port freight. There are more open steamship books starting in mid December than there were when the whole world was in lockdown. Ports I go into daily should be stacked and packed right now with Christmas freight. It’s scary how empty they are. In the last three months it has gone from taking four or five hours to get a container to twenty minutes. It’s only getting worse. Everyone remembers 2008. Well it hit my industry in late November ‘06. That’s over a year before everything else collapsed. It’s starting again. This time they’re raising rates into a contracting economy. In ‘08 they sent the Fed funds rate to near zero. The coming crash is going to make ‘08 look like a booming economy.


‘TO LEARN WHO RULES OVER YOU, SIMPLY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO CRITICIZE’

Conspiracy theorists are the ones who see it all coming…

You are the carbon they want to eliminate !

I’m Uber Deplorable Ultra MAGA !
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,182
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,182
I'm looking to build, but I'm waiting. Have a functional camp house on-site at the moment, so I'll see what happens over the next year or two. Will have my site ready and utilities in place. May go ahead and build a small shop in the meantime. Chip away at it while looking for the best timing.


Now with even more aplomb
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
Originally Posted by Daveinjax
I’d wait. The home market has and will continue to stagnate as interest rates go up. The real pain of the recession hasn’t hit yet. There will be bargains to be had by mid ‘23 and it’s very likely that 80% will be 100% buy mid ‘23.
To give an example of what is coming I’m in the trucking business as an owner operator. I pull port freight. There are more open steamship books starting in mid December than there were when the whole world was in lockdown. Ports I go into daily should be stacked and packed right now with Christmas freight. It’s scary how empty they are. In the last three months it has gone from taking four or five hours to get a container to twenty minutes. It’s only getting worse. Everyone remembers 2008. Well it hit my industry in late November ‘06. That’s over a year before everything else collapsed. It’s starting again. This time they’re raising rates into a contracting economy. In ‘08 they sent the Fed funds rate to near zero. The coming crash is going to make ‘08 look like a booming economy.

Thanks for that perspective...

This is why 24HC is so GREAT... Diversity of trade/profession and Free Speech.

Thank you Rick Bin... and others.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,182
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 17,182
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Thanks for that perspective...

This is why 24HC is so GREAT... Diversity of trade/profession and Free Speech.

Thank you Rick Bin... and others.

+1


Now with even more aplomb
IC B2

Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
Originally Posted by JPro
May go ahead and build a small shop in the meantime. Chip away at it while looking for the best timing.

Dutch put up some Trump tax stuff on metal buildings/and other deductibles... a week or so ago... Huge write offs in 2022... 80% in 2023... 60% in 2024 etc. Kinda thing.

My CPA just finished our 2021 taxes... the refund was so large it will carry over to next year and beyond.

There are many variables... with all things related to money.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
O
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
O
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817

Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 15,988
G
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
G
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 15,988
I’d wait a year or so and pay cash when the housing market collapses. Between now and then, be looking for foreclosures and such.

Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,015
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,015
Originally Posted by JeffA
Originally Posted by Valsdad
Seems the consensus is to wait awhile before you buy.

The only thing waiting will offer is higher mortgage rates, wait long enough and you could very well see the double digit rates of the 80s.

[Linked Image from s305.podbean.com]

There is zero history of high mortgage rates causing the housing market to decline in price.

(Mortgage Rates vs Home Price)

There will be fewer homes sold and appreciation will likely slow to a crawl or just remain flat.

It's not our first rodeo at using high mortgage rates to slow inflation.

Forty years ago, the Fed pushed the economy into a recession to stop inflation. Here’s how it played out.

People just aren't gonna be selling, why would they?
It's the entire idea of raising mortgage rates, they are trying to slow spending.

If a guy down the street buys in with a 12% mortgage rate, why would that inspire people the are sitting on 6% or even 3% rates they secured over the last 20 years to sell?

They're not, they are going to sit tight, remodel, stay happy.

There will always be those that have to move and will sell, which will probably be a pretty equal match to those that have to buy.

Just find a decent, fair deal and snag it before you are looking at the higher mortgage rates that they have promised us will come.

This.


When its time to fight, you fight like you are the third monkey on the ramp to get on Noah's Arc... and brother, it is starting to rain!

The chair is against the wall.
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,588
D
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
D
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,588
Originally Posted by 338Rem
Originally Posted by JeffA
Originally Posted by Valsdad
Seems the consensus is to wait awhile before you buy.

The only thing waiting will offer is higher mortgage rates, wait long enough and you could very well see the double digit rates of the 80s.

[Linked Image from s305.podbean.com]

There is zero history of high mortgage rates causing the housing market to decline in price.

(Mortgage Rates vs Home Price)

There will be fewer homes sold and appreciation will likely slow to a crawl or just remain flat.

It's not our first rodeo at using high mortgage rates to slow inflation.

Forty years ago, the Fed pushed the economy into a recession to stop inflation. Here’s how it played out.

People just aren't gonna be selling, why would they?
It's the entire idea of raising mortgage rates, they are trying to slow spending.

If a guy down the street buys in with a 12% mortgage rate, why would that inspire people the are sitting on 6% or even 3% rates they secured over the last 20 years to sell?

They're not, they are going to sit tight, remodel, stay happy.

There will always be those that have to move and will sell, which will probably be a pretty equal match to those that have to buy.

Just find a decent, fair deal and snag it before you are looking at the higher mortgage rates that they have promised us will come.

This.
When the economy is in ruins the fed will cut rates to restart the economy. There will be both bargain house prices and cheap money for a short time. Be ready with cash. Your signal to buy is when the fed makes the first large rate cut.


‘TO LEARN WHO RULES OVER YOU, SIMPLY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO CRITICIZE’

Conspiracy theorists are the ones who see it all coming…

You are the carbon they want to eliminate !

I’m Uber Deplorable Ultra MAGA !
IC B3

Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,742
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,742
Understanding the 2008 Housing Market Crash and it's lack of relevance in today's economy.

Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,440
Originally Posted by JeffA
Understanding the 2008 Housing Market Crash and it's lack of relevance in today's economy.

Bad link...

This it?

https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/2008-market-crash


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,742
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,742
Thanks, I didn't double check before the post then had to run out the door.

Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,784
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,784
I just don’t see nominal home values dropping significantly. The only time that happened was in 2008/9, and was more related to mortgages and foreclosures than market fundamentals.

If we go by history, real (inflation adjusted) home values do drop in a lot of recessions, so that’s a motivation to keep your powder dry and look for bargains towards the end of the cycle. The mantra of the media (right AND left) is that there’s a housing shortage which buttresses any market force to drive down prices.

That may well be true. The assumption, there, is that demand is fixed. And it’s not. Times get tough, and what was an investment in an airBNB nowcomes on the market because the municipality outlawed rentals. What was a young graduate looking for his first house becomes a starving waiter looking for two roommates. Parents that were flush with cash renting a nice apartment for their daughter at a fancy college becomes sweet-cheeks living at home and going to state college.

The demand side worries me. We’ve gotten so used to increasing stock markets, a booming job market and cash-out refinancing increasing out life style that anything more than a brief hiccup would have serious demand implications.


Sic Semper Tyrannis
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 23,268
C
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 23,268
I would be in wait and see mode but that's probably though when you see rates steadily creeping up. I know a few folks who kept putting it off and now have basically been priced out of getting anything decent. 6.8% basically gives them the buying power for a colossal piece of [bleep] when they could have been in something nice at 3%. That might change in a year but you still might be looking at 10% rates and I don't know if home values will fall proportionally.

Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 777
C
Campfire Regular
Offline
Campfire Regular
C
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 777
Originally Posted by rufous
I have enough cash from the sale of home number 3 to put anywhere from about 50 to 80% down on the next home.

That's a good position to be in.

Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,002
H
Campfire Regular
Offline
Campfire Regular
H
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,002
Originally Posted by jackmountain
Wait 6-12 months. If not you’re going to be underwater on that mortgage for the foreseeable future. The smart money is cashed up waiting for buying opportunities.
Same with buying vehicles.


He said he is putting 50-80% down. In your opinion, the market is going to drop that much for him to be underwater on that mortgage?

Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,166
R
rufous Offline OP
Campfire Regular
OP Offline
Campfire Regular
R
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,166
Originally Posted by Gypsy_Wind
I would wait at least 6mo as others have said. Would also shop around for a local credit union that offers a mortgage interest rebate.

What is a mortgage interest rebate? I have not heard of that before.

Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,166
R
rufous Offline OP
Campfire Regular
OP Offline
Campfire Regular
R
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,166
Originally Posted by jackmountain
Wait 6-12 months. If not you’re going to be underwater on that mortgage for the foreseeable future. The smart money is cashed up waiting for buying opportunities.
Same with buying vehicles.

Well we haven't found a house to buy yet but I don't see any real change in the market here in my area. Are you all still thinking that a recession is looming? Some of the houses we have considered have sold for asking price or more. Some have dropped in price a few times and still are on the market but still overpriced.

Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,539
E
EdM Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
E
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,539
Originally Posted by Daveinjax
I’d wait. The home market has and will continue to stagnate as interest rates go up. The real pain of the recession hasn’t hit yet. There will be bargains to be had by mid ‘23 and it’s very likely that 80% will be 100% buy mid ‘23.
To give an example of what is coming I’m in the trucking business as an owner operator. I pull port freight. There are more open steamship books starting in mid December than there were when the whole world was in lockdown. Ports I go into daily should be stacked and packed right now with Christmas freight. It’s scary how empty they are. In the last three months it has gone from taking four or five hours to get a container to twenty minutes. It’s only getting worse. Everyone remembers 2008. Well it hit my industry in late November ‘06. That’s over a year before everything else collapsed. It’s starting again. This time they’re raising rates into a contracting economy. In ‘08 they sent the Fed funds rate to near zero. The coming crash is going to make ‘08 look like a booming economy.

Are you seeing this now that it is mid '23?


Conduct is the best proof of character.
Page 2 of 4 1 2 3 4

Moderated by  RickBin 

Link Copied to Clipboard
YB23

Who's Online Now
310 members (007FJ, 06hunter59, 01Foreman400, 10Glocks, 160user, 12344mag, 32 invisible), 2,056 guests, and 935 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums81
Topics1,187,728
Posts18,400,822
Members73,822
Most Online11,491
Jul 7th, 2023


 







Fish & Game Departments | Solunar Tables | Mission Statement | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | DMCA
Hunting | Fishing | Camping | Backpacking | Reloading | Campfire Forums | Gear Shop
Copyright © 2000-2024 24hourcampfire.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.3.33 Page Time: 0.057s Queries: 15 (0.004s) Memory: 0.9077 MB (Peak: 1.0828 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2024-03-29 11:14:32 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS