Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Car market bubble

Youtube has plenty of "experts" saying the car market is in trouble.
Seems production is up, and the chip shortage is ending. New car inventory is doubled from a year ago.
Used car prices are falling every month at the wholesale level. Interest rates are climbing, foreclosures on used cars are climbing too, and banks are reducing loan allocations for used cars.
Stimulus money is over, and inflation will cause more defaults on loans. So used cars prices will crash, and new cars will be tougher for more people to buy, given higher interest, and lower trade value.
Anyway this "story" is a popular topic on youtube now. So, if it is true, cars should be cheaper by spring. Many are saying new car incentives will be very soon.
Local Chevy dealer has a nice 2015 Tacoma for sale. It is listed for 30K. MSRP 8 years ago was 26,355. Aged like a fine wine.

My newest (wife's....still mine)

is an '11 Lexus GX

Oldest is an '01 LC

No need to replace any of the fleet here

Sold my '14 Taco DC SB manual for $26K Mar '21 & 95K miles

Kinda miss the ole Taco

Good news. Will need to buy a lightly used car for daughter #2 in the next 12-18 months.

Im in need of a truck. Going Taco Trd route, 41,000 is about the price now. Guys here tell me its the going rate. Pretty dang pricy for a mid size truck. Hope its worth it. Local dealer has you put 500 down then when they get one you get first dibs on it. Saw 7 or 8 people on the list.

Same thing is happening with the UTV/ATV market. Gonna be a lot of smoking deals on 1-2 year old UTV/ATV’s! People thinking about selling that $30K SxS Covid impulse buy are about to be underwater.

I have 2 cars. I am thinking of selling one on Craigs list now, and trading the 2018 4runner on a 23 in the spring. I retired, so I don't want 2 cars anymore. If I sell my second car now, I may be ahead of the bust. Anyway the anticipated fallout is interesting. Like watching a dam leak.

Home market bubble is next.

There isn’t anything they can’t screw up.

Cars are way down already, and availability is up. There's actually a chip glut right now. Equipment prices are crashing as well -- less houses being built, lots of contractors selling off excess skid steers, backhoes, excavators, etc. They have seen busts before and want to stay ahead of the curve.

Not sure it will be a crash, there's not that much new out there yet, and there's still a back log of demand from two years of very limited new production. Same with housing. Yes, sales are dropping, but prices aren't in most places. Still a lot of demand, but very few people are willing to sell a house with a 2-1/2% interest rate to move into a 7% interest rate, and new construction is slowing way down.

It may be cooling a bit...but don't get too excited yet. I bought a new one about 10 days ago. During my month-long-ish hunt, I found that 80%+ of the dealer still had significant charges above MSRP, usually between $3K and $5K. Most of the rest had plenty of 'extras' tacked on that they wouldn't remove. I just took my time, did most of the negotiating online, and got a deal I'm very satisfied with. They still gave me nearly $2K more for my old vehicle as a trade-in than I planned on selling it for, which is a nice bonus on the tax bill.

It might take a little more time for it to become sane again.

As for sxs's they have been crazy for a long time but went really bad when the plague hit.

Would not mind getting one but don't want to pay what i did for my f-150 for it.

Yeah I'm good on The vehicle front. None are new but they are paid for and run good. I couldn't imagine spending north of $60k on a new vehicle. But then again, to each their own! I live a very humble and comfortable life. I used to get a new vehicle every year up until about 12 years ago and decided that I could be content with my used vehicles and instead of spending the money on car payments, I can instead, buy the guns and toys that I want.

Sounds good and all, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Interest rates are going up

New car prices are crazy

Yep a reckoning is on the horizon

2023 is going to be interesting, I expect some large price pullbacks in realestate and auto's. The home building marking is already tanking, it's going to be a tough year in construction. It's takes 12-18 months to feel the full affect of the rate hikes, tail end of 23 will be a full blown recession I think. So you still have 6-8 months before things get really chitty.

If you bought a new home the last two years, you better stay awhile

It’s going to be interesting. Not sure how vehicles will play out. For real estate its officially a buyers market in some markets. Once the I buyers and new construction has to sell, they will take the market with them. Don’t think it will be a crash but probably back to 2020 prices. Fortunately most private sellers have a lot of equity to lose at this point before going under water.

I'll stick with my 1970 Dart.

We've seen pictures of your garage, Ed.

I've has a diesel suburban on order since the first of the year. They said there are still at least 20 diesel orders ahead of me st that 1 dealership and they rarely get allocated a diesel suburban. They said it could easily be another year.

Bb