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Check out the discussion between 12:30 and 17:00 or so.

If you feel qualified to argue, have at it. grin


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Well there are a couple of nuggets in there. Biggest one, neither one of them want to play in the Benchrest universe and both were pretty candid about that.



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That tickles.


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Goodness, my head is about to explode!


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Very good stuff! Bryan Litz is clearly an engineer. I wonder why % humidity vs. dew point though?

Last edited by Bugger; 01/15/23.

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I watched the whole conversation and I appreciate their comments near the end when they talked about, assuming that you're wrong so you're open to learning.

Also, earlier they talked about not over reacting to a larger than usual group, it fits in the bell curve if you've gathered a large enough data set.

Does it make a difference? Does it make a difference to me in what I'm doing?

Thanks for posting!

They covered a lot of ground in one video!!

Last edited by colodog; 01/15/23. Reason: add comment

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mathman Online Content OP
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Originally Posted by Swifty52
Well there are a couple of nuggets in there. Biggest one, neither one of them want to play in the Benchrest universe and both were pretty candid about that.

Litz is a good engineer, and it's hard to quantify voodoo. grin

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The main reason I posted was that particular point in the conversation about the statistics centered around 1 moa rifles.

A lot of handloaders for typical hunting rifles would do well to carefully listen to that segment a dozen times or so.

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The good ol empirical rule! Stats 101! Can also be applied to many concepts in life!

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Originally Posted by SDHNTR
The good ol empirical rule! Stats 101! Can also be applied to many concepts in life!

"The Bell Curve."


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Good stuff. Always enjoy an engineering perspective.

Mr. Cortina's body language was interesting to watch as well.


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Originally Posted by mathman
The main reason I posted was that particular point in the conversation about the statistics centered around 1 moa rifles.

A lot of handloaders for typical hunting rifles would do well to carefully listen to that segment a dozen times or so.

Well, you're right with what I think that you are implying, but I doubt that many will really get the significance of what is being said.

Also, one would have to do a LOT of shooting to show that, if they shot enough, eventually they would have shots that reached the outermost deviation that SD's would show as possible, whether they were working with +/- 1 SD or +/- 3SD.

Many guys will not shoot a given rifle & ammo combination that much in a year............hence they don't believe it, unless they are statistically astute.

I guess pure mathematics aside, which clearly show a given possibility, doesn't necessarily mean that everyone (or situation) will ever display that behavior......................just depends on how many samples you want to collect to use as data points.

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I watched/listen to this the other day.
One thing I was wondering, was he loading "custom" ammo for this test or using something like Lake City since he was doing the testing for the government


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Originally Posted by MontanaMan
Originally Posted by mathman
The main reason I posted was that particular point in the conversation about the statistics centered around 1 moa rifles.

A lot of handloaders for typical hunting rifles would do well to carefully listen to that segment a dozen times or so.

Well, you're right with what I think that you are implying, but I doubt that many will really get the significance of what is being said.

Also, one would have to do a LOT of shooting to show that, if they shot enough, eventually they would have shots that reached the outermost deviation that SD's would show as possible, whether they were working with +/- 1 SD or +/- 3SD.

Many guys will not shoot a given rifle & ammo combination that much in a year............hence they don't believe it, unless they are statistically astute.

I guess pure mathematics aside, which clearly show a given possibility, doesn't necessarily mean that everyone (or situation) will ever display that behavior......................just depends on how many samples you want to collect to use as data points.

MM

Hey MM, how many on here do you think would go out and shoot say 50-100 rounds in 5 shot groups = 10-20 groups over a chronograph of the exact same load to get an actual SD that’s valid?
If this would happen more and more, they would see the large to small dispersion of group size as noted, unfortunately most on here will shoot 3-5 shots, state they have an SD of 3 then never shoot over the chronograph again unless they think something went wonky.
Also 1500 rounds of the same load isn’t unheard of albeit in my case only 1/10th or 150 rounds was shot over a chronograph.

Last edited by Swifty52; 01/17/23.


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But, but, but, I once shot a 1/2MOA group therefore I have a 1/2MOA rifle and I am a 1/2MOA shooter! LOL...


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The Central Limit Theorem tells us that we should expect a normally distributed mean group size if we shoot enough groups with the same rifle, ammo, and conditions, but what I found interesting was Bryan’s comment that their testing shows a typical SD of 30%. I’ve worked with rifles/loads that showed more variation from group to group than others, and the CLT tells us that the SD in group size between different loads and rifles should also be normally distributed. I have to think that the SD would be smaller with ammo that is carefully handloaded in a node, and that 30% is likely with match-grade factory ammo.

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Listened to the whole podcast - the idea of being less wrong opposed to being more right seemed to be a common thread. I can apply the principle of minimizing the downside instead of maximizing the upside in many areas. Eric, as accomplished as he is, isn’t an engineer and at several points tried to oversimplify the already simple.

The humidity issue depicted was a new concept for me to consider more entirely. The example of 140gr Bergers in a 6.5 Creed with same powder charge exhibiting as much as 200 fps variation sure opened my eyes.

Interesting notes on powder charges & primer combos that create a broader range of acceptable results.

Thanks for sharing, Mathman!

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As far as humidity goes. I keep my gun room at 30% at 70 degrees, (44.5 dew point) and sometimes it the middle of the summer with the AC going and all the dehumidifiers going it gets as high as 35% or 47.6 dew point.

When I load, I seat the bullets shortly after the powder is poured. The powder measure is covered/sealed so the powder does not gain or lose moisture. I won’t allow the powder to be exposed to the atmosphere any longer than necessary.

As far as sd and accuracy goes, I use three five-shot groups and average them. (True if I get one flier in one group I’ll reshoot that group. Maybe that’s a mistake??? I’ve always blamed the guy pulling the trigger-me.)

This isn’t perfect, but that’s been my practice. I wonder now if I should keep that flyer group in the average? If two group have flyers, I alter the load to get a more accurate or better load.

Last edited by Bugger; 01/17/23.

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Interesting how Brian suggested waiting for another podcast to talk about harmonics…

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