24hourcampfire.com
24hourcampfire.com
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Hop To
Page 2 of 3 1 2 3
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,261
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,261
Originally Posted by The_Real_Hawkeye
Originally Posted by derby_dude
Originally Posted by Barak
Lemme ask it this way.

If I were to hand you a dollar, how would you tell whether it was worth a dollar or not?


Okay, I get you now I think. Dollar is only worth a dollar because the government says it's worth a dollar. If the dollar was only legal tender to pay taxes that would give the dollar worth.

Look up the Isle of Mann or New York State before the state ratified the Constitution. Both use paper money as legal tender to pay taxes only. Both have or had in that of NY a viable paper currency that had value.

I realize Barak, under anarchy there would be no money other than gold/silver but the reality is that most people want a paper currency guaranteed by a government. I know that's stupid but its reality.
Theoretically a paper fiat currency can work if it's volume is maintained at a constant level, and assuming that government taxes and services must be paid in it, but like many things that are possible in theory, it's not possible in practice, since the folks who administer it will suffer from far too great a temptation to print and print, which is what invariably happens. This is also what happens when banks are permitted to engage in fractional reserve banking, and even reduces the value of real gold and silver when they engage in it. This is no different from counterfeiting. In a society where counterfeiting (including fractional reserve banking) is seriously punished (since it reduces the purchasing power even of everyone's real gold and silver while transferring that lost value into the possession of the counterfeiter), money cannot be printed into existence. Nothing stops banks, however, from issuing good notes backed 100% by real gold and silver in their vaults.


Yup, I was surprised to learn that New York was a strong Anti-federalist state because it had a viable tax and currency system. Under Federalism New York would lose that advantage. I'm in the ratification precess of New York right now.

I'm going to have read up on the New York monatary system before ratification.

Well I've got stuff to do so I'm out of here.

Last edited by derby_dude; 05/25/12.

Don't vote knothead, it only encourages them. Anonymous

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." Anonymous

"Self-reliance, free thinking, and wealth is anathema to both the power of the State and the Church." Derby Dude


BP-B2

Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 17,278
Barak Offline OP
Campfire Ranger
OP Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 17,278
Originally Posted by derby_dude
Originally Posted by The_Real_Hawkeye
Originally Posted by Barak
Lemme ask it this way.

If I were to hand you a dollar, how would you tell whether it was worth a dollar or not?
Folks need to start thinking of the dollar priced in gold/silver, rather than gold/silver priced in dollars. Once one does that, all confusion is generally cleared up. Gold and silver are relatively constant in value, while the dollar constantly changes in value (i.e., how much gold and silver it can buy), almost invariably downward.


That's the way it should be but that's to confusing for most people. Economics is one of those arts/science that is way to confusing for 99% of the people. I've seen that up close and personal.

That's one of the things that's nice about the Austrian School. Austrian economics is much simpler and clearer than any other kind I've ever seen. Under the Austrian analysis, the very same things that are bad for individuals are bad for large groups, and the very same things that are good for individuals are good for large groups. You know from experience what's good and bad for you; therefore it's pretty easy to understand viscerally what's good and bad for the country as a whole and why.

Keynesians, on the other hand, have to explain why it is that for an individual, continuing to spend money when you're deep in debt is disastrous, but for a nation, continuing to spend money--preferably at an increasing rate--when deep in debt is the only hope for salvation.

You have to put together a pretty big pile of BS to be able to hide an explanation like that behind it.


"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain--that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist." --Lysander Spooner, 1867
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,261
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,261
smile


Don't vote knothead, it only encourages them. Anonymous

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." Anonymous

"Self-reliance, free thinking, and wealth is anathema to both the power of the State and the Church." Derby Dude


Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337
G
Gus Offline
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
G
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337
i'm no where near being an economist, but i suspect massive deflation is occurring, what with interest rates being so low.

the fact that food and gas prices are rising is another subject altogether. makes one say hmmmm.

btw placing someone on igore on the internet is a massive waste of precious resources. grin


Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 33,856
E
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
E
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 33,856
I'm would bet that Mike 762 is very knowledgeable with regard to Peter Schiff.

Last edited by eyeball; 05/25/12.

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time by the blood of patriots and tyrants.

If being stupid allows me to believe in Him, I'd wish to be a retard. Eisenhower and G Washington should be good company.
IC B2

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Since he's my broker, I hope that I do. grin


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Interest rates are being set by the Fed's intervention and purchase of 61% of all Treasury issue, and 90% of everything on the long end.

They, meaning Treasury and the Fed, cannot afford any increase in the interest rate, as debt service would soon take up the majority of the budget if rates were to increase by two hundred basis points (2%). They will eventually, but the Fed will fight it every step of the way.

Understand that inflation is nothing more than the increase in the available amounts of currency and credit available. That has been occurring since 2008 on an exponential basis, and the ramp in commodity prices is in fact a corollary of this.

Deflation is the opposite, meaning a decrease in the amount of currency and credit, making the value of both increase.

Also keep in mind that supply and demand play a role in whether goods/services rise or fall in price. The glut of homes on the market has depressed the overall price, and this will not reverse until the over supply has been cleared.

Deflation is only a bad thing if you're in debt, as it makes the debt harder to service. Since our entire currency/credit system is debt based, deflation is feared by those in charge of it, and those who make money from it. This includes banksters and politicians.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 42,579
S
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
S
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 42,579
My fear on Peter Schiff, is that the FEDs one day will not like all the sense he's talking and do to him, what they did to his dad...


"Minus the killings, Washington has one of the lowest crime rates in the Country" Marion Barry, Mayor of Wash DC

“Owning guns is not a right. If it were a right, it would be in the Constitution.” ~Alexandria Ocasio Cortez

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Originally Posted by Seafire
My fear on Peter Schiff, is that the FEDs one day will not like all the sense he's talking and do to him, what they did to his dad...


That may happen to ALL of us. Wasn't it the DOJ who described a "domestic terrorist" as one who voted for Ron Paul, served in the military, and owned firearms? I seem to remember that, and I resemble that description.

Now, under the loosened definition of those "affiliated" with terror groups brought to us via the NDAA, it wouldn't surprise me if the two become somehow connected.

Thank God that Kathleen Forrest had ba!!s enough to place an injunction on the NDAA. Hopefully, our so called four "originalist" and one quasi conservative Justices on the SCOTUS will uphold the ruling when it gets there; but if I had to bet on it, given their most recent history IRT the 4th Amendment, I'd say that they will rescind the injunction and let the original wording stand.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 17,278
Barak Offline OP
Campfire Ranger
OP Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 17,278
Originally Posted by mike762
They, meaning Treasury and the Fed, cannot afford any increase in the interest rate, as debt service would soon take up the majority of the budget if rates were to increase by two hundred basis points (2%).

But if the rates were to increase, Treasuries would become more attractive, right? They'd be able to just borrow more money to pay the increasing debt service.

I can see a problem with that once the rubes begin to understand that "the Full Faith & Credit of the Government of the United States of America" is not much different from "The Full Faith & Credit of the One-Eyed Homeless Guy in the Alley Behind Lefty's Bar," but folks who have been predicting for years that the rubes will open their eyes Any Day Now haven't been particularly successful so far.


"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain--that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist." --Lysander Spooner, 1867
IC B3

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Originally Posted by Barak
Originally Posted by mike762
They, meaning Treasury and the Fed, cannot afford any increase in the interest rate, as debt service would soon take up the majority of the budget if rates were to increase by two hundred basis points (2%).

But if the rates were to increase, Treasuries would become more attractive, right? They'd be able to just borrow more money to pay the increasing debt service.

I can see a problem with that once the rubes begin to understand that "the Full Faith & Credit of the Government of the United States of America" is not much different from "The Full Faith & Credit of the One-Eyed Homeless Guy in the Alley Behind Lefty's Bar," but folks who have been predicting for years that the rubes will open their eyes Any Day Now haven't been particularly successful so far.


Increase coupon means increased risk, or it's supposed to reflect that, and in a normal market it would. It also makes the bonds previously issued worth less.

Unfortunately, just conjuring up "money" to pay the increased coupon for that perceived risk at some point becomes a vicious upward spiral, and creditors start to demand higher and higher rates to reflect that, until you go Greek, or Spanish, or Italian-or America in the late 70's.

This time though, there's no way that a Paul Volcker can step in and raise rates to a couple of percent over the real rate of inflation and stop the cycle, as the debts are too large.

There comes a point, called the "bang point", when confidence is lost and you get Weimar. It isn't that far off.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 18,987
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 18,987
So, Mike, your prediction when this will happen is what, this fall? The end of the summer? And, what are the markers we need to watch for just before the crash? When the Fed says it's going to raise the interest rates to "slow things down"?

When Greece goes into civil war? Or Israel attacks Iran? You have always showed you can read the markets and the economy. I tend to trust what you have to say. You fill an important niche at the campfire. kwg


For liberals and anarchists, power and control is opium, selling envy is the fastest and easiest way to get it. TRR. American conservative. Never trust a white liberal. Malcom X Current NRA member.
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Well, my crystal ball has been cloudy recently, and there are too many moving parts to put an exact "when" anything will occur. Back in '07/early '08 I was ridiculed for saying things were going to He!! in a hand basket, and soon, and lo and behold, in October of '08 we were two days from an implosion of the banking/financial system.

IMO, they should have let it fail and cleared the debts, but they instead threw on the order of $21 Trillion at the "problem", socialized the losses, and allowed the banks to double down on their bets with the sure knowledge that the taxpayer and the Fed will be there to bail them out. By doing so they have made the next downturn literally orders of magnitude worse than it otherwise would be.

When will the next downturn take place, and can the keep the balls in the air until November? I don't know. I do know that every day when I wake up I expect to see a cataclysm in the markets, and am amazed that they have managed to kick the can so far.

There are quite a few triggers out there. Europe is a major one. China is another. They are in a major contraction right now and who knows how that will turn out since their major export market, the Eurozone, is essentially moribund. Then there is the next debt ceiling kabuki show, due in late September or early October just prior to the election, which could result in further downgrades of our debt. You can also add in the recent JPM "trading" loss. That's where I'm placing my money (bet that is). The loss has been reported as $2 Billion initially. Now it's between $4 and 7 Billion, with some estimates that it could be closer to $31 Billion, because of the suspension of their stock buy back program. In the latest round of stress tests, the Fed ruled that if certain loss limits were exceeded that the banks would have to suspend any stock purchases until they had resolved the losses by increasing their reserves. There are rumors that JPM has done this precisely because the loss is so large.

Keep in mind that JPM has THE largest derivative book in the US, on the order of $70 Trillion with a book of 2.8 Trillion. That means that a very small loss can result in insolvency. If that happens, well, let's just say that the fat will be in the fire due to chained counterparty risk. Think 2008 on steroids.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043
I
Campfire Kahuna
Offline
Campfire Kahuna
I
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 62,043
Please Mike...you predicted a far worse outcome than that which actually transpired. The metals have been quite shaky as of late and their downward spiral could very well occur before a stock crash,especially if the Euro continues to slide,further strenghtening the dollar and it's consequent long term stay as the definitive reserve currency.

I can think of no event which will reverse the US dollars course as the dominant world currency.

Last edited by RISJR; 05/26/12.

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.
William Arthur Ward




Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Think harder.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337
G
Gus Offline
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
G
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337
if all economic power doesn't flow from out of the end of gun barrels, then from whence does it flow??

y'all are talking about economics. since when did economic power and political power diverge from each other for more than a minute??

instead of destroying trees for the land to be converted to other crops, why can't we gather to plant more trees?


Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
Back on the bong again Gus? WTF?


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 79,321
B
Campfire Oracle
Offline
Campfire Oracle
B
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 79,321
Good read,...although I'll admit,..some of it is over my pay grade.

The basics are easy enough to figure out, however.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html

An excerpt:

Back to the ultimate problem. The USTreasury Bond market cannot defy the natural forces from enormous new supply coming to the USTBond market in the form of $1.5 trillion deficits, and keep the bond yield at 0% for the FedFunds and under 2.0% on the TNX. To add strain to the tower, the foreign buyers have removed themselves due to the grand debasement of the USDollar from the program. Too much hidden USDollar output comes behind the curtains. They are disgusted that the US bankers make unilateral decisions on central bank monetary policy, like setting the 0% rate, like monetizing another $1 trillion in USTBonds or USAgency Mortgage Bonds, like consenting to lavish executive bonuses to those responsible for fracturing the global financial ramparts, all done without consulting foreign creditors. Their significant US$-based bond holdings are eroding in value, not earning a yield in compensation for risk. The 0% payout is an insult to creditors, especially during constant QE initiatives. The published CPI measure of 2% to 3% is another insult, when 8% to 10% is the reality.

My translation of that,..

There's no international market for bonds which are based on U.S. dollars when the dollar is being debased and the bonds based on those dollars are paying extremely low interest.

Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 130,941
T
Campfire Sage
Offline
Campfire Sage
T
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 130,941
Originally Posted by mike762
Back on the bong again Gus? WTF?
I've learned never to toggle his posts.

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
M
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
M
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 6,418
I don't have him on ignore, so I see them. Gus may be...strange, at times, but he has yet to devolve into name calling for lack of an argument, like many I do have on ignore are prone to do.


If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks..., will deprive the People of all their Property,...Thomas Jefferson
Page 2 of 3 1 2 3

Moderated by  RickBin 

Link Copied to Clipboard
YB23

Who's Online Now
722 members (10gaugemag, 16penny, 160user, 12344mag, 21, 12308300, 74 invisible), 2,735 guests, and 1,334 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums81
Topics1,187,623
Posts18,398,611
Members73,817
Most Online11,491
Jul 7th, 2023


 







Fish & Game Departments | Solunar Tables | Mission Statement | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | DMCA
Hunting | Fishing | Camping | Backpacking | Reloading | Campfire Forums | Gear Shop
Copyright © 2000-2024 24hourcampfire.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.3.33 Page Time: 0.182s Queries: 15 (0.005s) Memory: 0.9046 MB (Peak: 1.0853 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2024-03-28 15:12:30 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS