Time to buy again?
I’m holding XOM, MMP, ET, HAL and just bought 100 shares of HAL, thinking I should buy a good bit more at this price while it’s close to March’s low. Lot of guys on here with intimate knowledge of the industry, what’s the consensus?

Might be?

I think we are heading for a sell off short term, but maybe soon if you have the stomach.

"Buy low, sell high"?

Might be some volitility due to consolidating.

I bought a truck load of XOM at $36 last March. Still holding it. I think it'll double in 2-years.

I work in the industry. It's fugged.

I'm saying fugged.

Sean?

I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t see alternative energy destroying fossil fuels as long as gas is +/- $2. My guess is we’re at LEAST one more boom cycle away from it. But I don’t think I’m a long term holder of the sector any longer.
In my business, after Katrina, every single home buyer’s #1 concern was energy efficiency. Insulation, SEER ratings, window performance, solar and wind generators.... I haven’t heard a single question about any of that from a customer in 5 years.

I watched a segment were they projected global production, a couple years and we will be short again unless they keep drilling. Hint, they won't keep drilling at these prices. It's always been boom/bust, there is no replacement. Two years out I'm a bull, short term ( couple months) I'm a bear. Demand will grow in Asia even as demand slows in the US. I'll probably be a buyer the next few months of good dividend yielding energy stocks.

Anything beyond the obvious choices that you’re looking at?

If I could somehow move even further from the stock market and into higher ROI cash flowing real property and low overhead businesses, I would.

That said, I've had good luck long term with REITs.

I'm waiting for the XLE spiders to get to mid 20s which is about 10% lower. I think medium term, regardless of the election, it could do well. If Trump wins, no green deal crap, no extra regs, no extra taxes. If Biden wins, they may go after fracking and cause prices to go up. Either way, when the lock downs go away, and travel resumes, we will see demand go up quickly. Longer term, however, I have no interest in this sector though. I see more and more electric and hybrid vehicles in the future. Too many people are drinking the climate change koolaid. Also, in the business sector, I see about half the business travel never coming back. They've all geared up and gotten used to the Zoom meetings etc. I see it being an uphill battle long term for the sector. And if prices do go up at all, I see countries just increasing production to move product. Marginal diminishing returns in other words.

I'm holding tight until after the election. General consensus around here is that if Biden wins, the energy sector will take a wait and see approach to react to what that moron does, or doesn't do.

I like the mid streams and pipelines like epd, kmi. Product always needs moved and they run like a REIT.

I also like producers with some nat gas like xom and chevron. Drillers and service are still a ways out IMO

About 5 yrs ago oil was 40 bucks and the energy stocks were twice the price they are now. We dont have the oil glut everyone thinks we do, crude oil is inching up and natural gas has all but doubled since July from $1.53 to about $ 2.85 . There is no reason for energy stocks to be this low. I have been seeing more jets in the air, traffic is up and rail transport is up 1.9% last week from the week before. Energy stocks are way undervalued. I keep buying a little more here and there but it keeps going down.

When I retired I set up my portfolio so that I do not have to nickel and dime it or, frankly, watch it much which I did daily while working. As a senior manager retiree of Royal Dutch Shell I hold a pretty good chunk of stock as it was a healthy piece of my compensation. I still hold it well down and with a hugely reduced dividend. I don't need the money and will just ride it out as I have done for years.

Electric vehicles are still a niche until battery technology improves so I'm not ready to declare the death of the internal combustion engine yet. When this Covid garbage is over oil will be back I'm confident. While "green" energy is all the rage in the U.S. and Europe, China and India don't give a damn about it and they will be buying a lot of oil when things are rolling again.

Gas vehicles don't have to be dead though. Even if there's slowly eroding demand, that could be enough to put a ceiling on the sector long term. I don't have to like it to see the writing on the wall. Plus, I can tell you that telecommuting is here to stay for a lot of businesses. Even after the lock downs are over, there will be a net loss off business commuters.

These communists have changed the psych in the world 180*.

For commerce to occur (all economic channels open and flowing from manuf. – consumer) there has to be people willing to release their discretionary income, “if” they have it. (High unemployment coupled with fear will show they don’t have it or refuse to spend it)

When you can get people to spend, that will be when the markets will come back.

As long as the masks stay on, that will be your sign of people unwilling to do so, because that is them telling you they are scared, and scared people do not spend discretionary income when they believe there are “major” unknowns (Testing / sickness / death) in their economic future.

Gee. Damn. Oh my.

I guess I better not buy that new Ford Raptor.

I probably shouldn’t have recently bought that 40hp John Deere Tractor with disc, bush hog and drag box. Bad move.

Neither are electric, either.

Walmart shelves were very bare today as were the meats sections.

Had to wait at the gas station today to fill my truck and auxiliary fuel tanks.

Yep, things have gone to hell in my greater area.

.

So, does that mean you think it's a good time to buy or not?

Solar panels and windmills sound good to the lefties..


Until you have a major interruption on the power grid.

Days/ weeks after a hurricane Folks run their lives off generators not solar panels.

That will never been replaced with batteries.

Mee too, bought at 30.50, iirc sold at 46 bucks, in and out quick, but have people much smarter than me keeping eyes out.

BTW, bootleg pulls are always fun ; ]

You’re looking at it from an American perspective and forgetting about the rest of the world. Oil is a globally traded commodity. China has four times the people as us, India has three. Neither are worried about saving the planet, they just want to grow their economy as much as possible.

Announcing the death of oil is premature.

One Oke may be worth considering soon again...

Or acquisitions.

Conoco Phillips is buying shale producer, Concho.

We’ll see more of this and probably some notable mergers.

You are reading way too much into the mask thing. That's like saying that as long as you see people wearing seatbelts, that is them telling you that they are scared of getting killed on the highway. Agree with the wearing of masks and seat belts or not, it is merely people taking precautions. When I go into a store, which is infrequently even in normal times, I wear the mask because it is requested/demanded that I do so, not because I'm scared.

I like the energy stocks as well; current dividends plus likely appreciation in the next few years make them a good value relative to anything else out there.

There isn’t much appetite for o/g stocks on the street right now. All the boys have been burned and some of them in a big way. You’re going to see additional M&A for a while to come. Companies are coming to have to get bigger to compete and survive. They’re also going to have to get lean in non-revenue generating positions. You can’t afford to pay 250 IT and HR people anymore. Things are changing and traditionally o/g operators are slow to change. They push their vendors for price cuts to the point of bankrupting them, and then they may look internally. That’s just beginning to happen over the last 6 months or so. Service companies have stopped slashing prices to its time for the operators to do it on the inside.

Right now wouldn’t be a bad time to get in on some larger companies that have a long track record. Just know that when/if you do you may have to play the long game to make a really good return. Holding and selling at the right time could make for a REALLY good return, though. The o/g sector isn’t going anywhere. Wind is a joke, solar takes up too much space, greenies are freaked out by nuclear, and now people are bashing coal as well. Someone has to make electricity to charge all these new battery powered cars that are rolling out.

And if you really want to watch a spike in prices based on lack of volume let them ban fracing. Within 6 months all hell would break loose.